Concerns About Bedard, Concerns About The Cubs, Concenrs About My Well-Being

Programming note: Gonna take the holiday and Black Friday off, so tomorrow's newsletter will get everyone ready for the Hawks three games over the holiday period. Also, if you're good at something never do it for free, so starting Monday everything goes behind the subscription gate except probably one post per week. You've been warned. Join me or die! Can you do any less?

Sector 1901 - Concerns About Bedard

Yesterday I wondered on BlueSky if we could get Thomas Brown to coach Connor Bedard. Not that I think Brown is some sort of offensive genius. Everything he's doing with the Bears is just common sense, but even just that can be enough with a team that ran away from common sense so aggressively, like the Bears. Take what you have, consider everyone's skill-set and level, and do your best to put everyone in the best position to succeed. It doesn't have to be that hard. x

We'd kill for that with Bedard right now. He gets new linemates every game, and on Saturday it was every period. Recently he's been bumped from center to wing and back again, while simultaneously being asked to be the top scoring line, the top checking line, and both at the same time. None of this is conducive to helping a player, no matter how galatically-skilled, who remains the second-youngest in the league.

Yesterday's news that Phil Kurashev is going from healthy scratch to top-line winger isn't exactly running counter to those problems, while Teuvo Teravainen can dish out passes to the uninterested hands of Tyler Bertuzzi.

But Bedard's struggles go beyond simple handling from the coach or his lava-lamp linemates. There is an underlying fear watching him that I rarely speak of. I still think it's remote, and could be wiped away at the next scoring binge. It's only small, barely beyond infinitesimal. But it's there, sitting like a an undigested nugget turning septic. And slowly growing as this stretch of Bedard not being a factor goes on.

I compare Bedard to Jack Hughes a lot, and a lot of the time it's too easy of a comparison. They're both undersized, they're both #1 picks, they're both centers, and both occasionally have bounced out to wing.

And the comparison to Hughes should actually be something of a blankie. Hughes didn't pop into a MVP candidate-type performance until his third season, though his second season was the pandemic one so everything might have been stretched out a touch. And while his third season he was at more than a point-per-game, he only played 49 games due to injury. With a center that small, health is always going to be a concern. But if we're on that kind of arc, then Hughes's history should engineer some more patience.

Still, the difference between the players is clear. Hughes is a better skater, and he's shiftier with the puck. Someone his size has to be, otherwise he'll get killed. Watching Hughes, it's obvious how he opens up space for himself and his teammates.

Bedard's brilliance has always been more subtle, because while he's a very good skater and a very good puck-handler, he's not at the level of Hughes. He doesn't have the game-breaking speed of McDavid or MacKinnon that simply can't be stopped. Obviously, he's not a power-type of forward.

Bedard's offense has always sprung from his ability to get shots off quickly, from unexpected spots and angles, with an unerring accuracy. In juniors he could skate around people if he needed, but a lot of his goals are off the rush when he's seemingly no threat as a defender or two is in front of him. Hughes might find a way to get through them with a move. McDavid or MacKinnon might go around or through them with the nitrous button they have in their skates. Bedard usually has to make a much more subtle move with the puck to find a lane to get a shot off through the opponents in front of him, and he does regularly. Or at least he did. Haven't seen it much lately.

We still see that now, but goalies fight off those shots. The saves are never comfortable...but they're still saves. We've seen countless times Bedard get into the zone, 1-on-1 or 1-on-2, with just enough of a gap to drag the puck a touch and then get a shot on net. Clearly, they aren't going in. And he's only averaging less than three shots-on-goal per game. It's not enough. And now he's losing the confidence to try.

Again, Bedard can't really dance his way into better opportunities. He can't scorch a guy to the outside, nor generate the fear of that to open up things to the inside. So where are his goals going to come from? It's probably going to have to come from being smarter without the puck, which is where his ever-changing linemates are a frustration. He can get into all the open spots he wants, Joey Anderson isn't going to find him. It would take time even with the right linemates.

Right now, Bedard is below average in getting shots off high-danger passes. He's been moving farther from the net this season over last. That could be due to playing with no one who can make them, or not getting to where those passes would go. It's likely a combination of both. Teravainen remans well-above average at setting up scoring chances, and an extended run with him will give us a better idea if Bedard can get to spots without the puck to score.

Maybe it'll just take longer for Bedard to figure out how to apply his game to the NHL-level. How to manipulate defenders to where he wants, and those subtle moves with the puck, and the greater accuracy and lethalness on his shot to score at the top level that will be required. It could be it's just going to be harder than everyone thought.

Or it could be, and this is the fear, that Bedard's superior skill, his shot, is the one NHL d-men find easiest to nullify. Keep him out beyond the circles, don't give him that much room, and he A. can't generate that space with his feet that easily and B. our goalie should probably be able to stop anything from over 45 feet.

There isn't an answer for McDavid or MacKinnon at top speed. There isn't an answer for Hughes weaving between the rain drops. Rantanen and Reinhart have size and strength around the net that can simply overpower. Ovechkin will always have that one-timer and a sense of where to be and when while his teammates work with the puck that no one can teach. Of all that, Bedard might only have the Ovie skillset, and we haven't seen a lot of that. This is the fear.

Between G-Man And Nisei - The Youth And The Damage Done

As expected, it's been all quiet on the Northside front so far in the offseason. Which isn't that big of a deal, as it's been quiet everywhere. The Winter Meetings are next week, and though they're no longer the starter's gun for activity the way they used to be, it's still something of a kickstart.

The big rumor about the Cubs right now is that they're shopping Cody Bellinger. The cover story is that they want to open up a spot for one of their kids. The suspicion is they just want to be cheaper. Let's not conclude anything yet, just to try something different.

Bellinger is a weird case. Because of his gold-glove level defense at two or three positions, he's guaranteed to give you 2-3 WAR every year. Is he ever going to be a 5-WAR player again? Well, it's been six years now since he was, so that's probably a no. It's a pretty big statement on where the Cubs are and how they've put a team together that they basically had to re-sign Bellinger last winter, all the while knowing that his 2023 was the hilt of what he can provide. And yet the Cubs still needed his slightly above average production anyway. That's how hollow their lineup was, and is.

He doesn't hit the ball all that hard, he still outran his expected averages, and the older he gets the more glove-only he might be. All the above makes one wonder just how much the Cubs can get for him. To boot, if he were to ball out one more time, any team acquiring him is only going to get a season before he opts out. And if he doesn't, then they're likely stuck with him for another season they wouldn't want. Put all that together, and it feels more and more like a salary dump.

But hey, the Cubs do have this raft of prospects they love to talk about, and the time is coming where they do need to be called up. Bellinger not being around does open a spot for Owen Caissie or Alexander Canario, or Kevin Alcantara. The DH spot is basically closed for Seiya Suzuki, so right field is all there is.

The problem is that there's never been a bigger jump between AAA and The Show than there is now. There are a few theories as to why, with the biggest being the shrinking of the minor leagues leaving a lot of 4A pitchers out in the cold instead of waiting in reserve in Triple-A. Young hitters don't see MLB-worthy breaking stuff until they get to MLB, whereas in the past they would see a pitcher or two on any team in AAA that was basically waiting around to be called up as an injury replacement in the rotation.

Jackson Holliday, as loved as any prospect in recent memory, got to the Orioles and suddenly it didn't matter if he went up to the plate with a cricket bat or the Gashouse Gorilla tree trunk. Closer to the Cubs, Jackson Chourio up in Milwaukee spent the first two months of 2024 basically being Sid Barrett (timely!). All around the majors, name a team and they likely had a prospect everyone was very excited about that spent a good portion of time eating shit.

One wouldn't even have to stray from home. Pete Crow-Armstrong essentially had one good month, and the rest he had an OBP under .300. If anyone is sure he'll be able to hit in the majors they're lying to you. PCA's numbers at Iowa weren't as good as Caissie's or Alcantara's or Canario's, but it's a cautionary tale.

The most likely scenario is that any of those kids who claim the spot, should Bellinger go, are going to spend at least a couple of months struggling mightily. And this Cubs team isn't such an offensive juggernaut that it can afford to kick away a lineup spot for two, three, or four months on a kid trying to figure it out. You might argue that the Brewers couldn't really either at the start of last season. But they had Contreras, Adames, and Yelich on Opening Day. Do the Cubs have any of those?

This is still an 83-win team (as many as the Cardinals who simply gave up halfway through, keep in mind) that has ground to make up. While Bellinger is hardly a star anymore, you can be pretty sure there's a floor there. The Cubs will move that along for a much lower floor and a ceiling that they may not see until August. May not see until 2026.

And much like the Hawks, that's three players I just named for one spot that's open. Maybe two if they are honest about what PCA is and may become. Same goes for Matt Shaw, likely the surest best of all their kids who can come up for air in 2025, who can't get over a now-injured Nico Hoerner right now. Hoerner is certainly a candidate for a spot that needs to be upgraded. But he's also a guaranteed league-average bat. How long will Shaw be that, if that, before he figures out MLB pitching?

The Cubs will argue that the possible half-step or full-step back for the first half of next season or longer is needed to take the leap forward these kids could provide. How much ground will they have to make up by then? This would be a more acceptable plan with more steady veteran hitters. They have...Happ? Suzuki? That's the list.

It all sounds like an elaborate plan to run in place. Which I guess is the M.O. over there.