Has the MLB Season Become Like The NHL Season? (Free)
It's starting to feel like teams only have to take the first two months seriously.
One of the main reasons I have mostly dismissed the Hawks' April accomplishments is the way that NHL teams treat the regular season. This is a Fifth Feather corollary, I can't take credit for it, but it posits that serious NHL teams basically go all out in October and November to establish their playoff position. Given how hard it is to make up ground in the second half of a NHL season, it's pretty vital to try and position yourself as high up as early as possible.
They then spend the next two months basically going through the schedule, maybe figuring out what they need at the trade deadline, managing injuries, etc. They do that all while playing just well enough to not fuck up the position they spent the first two months establishing, but also not really going hellbent for leather (except for the Canes, usually).
The last two months are spent acquiring what teams think they need for the playoffs, honing or morphing their game into playoff style, and perhaps jostling for division titles, home-ice advantage, or wildcard spots that might be within just a few points. Once April hits, basically everything is set as far as standings, styles, and rosters go, so everyone is just tapping their foot, stretching, and waiting for the playoffs.
It's starting to feel like the MLB season might be taking a similar shape.
I've spent enough time the past two weeks splitting the Cubs up between the team they were until May 31st, the first third of the season, and what they've been since. What they've been since is one that has allowed Milwaukee to come sauntering into their apartment and go through the pantry.
The thing is, though, the Cubs aren't alone.
The Yankees were 35-22 on May 31st. They've gone 21-23 since to let the Jays ruin their ass-groove on the couch. The Tigers were 38-21. They're 22-21 since. The Mets and Phillies had matching 36-22 records. The Mets are 22-22 in the past six weeks, and the Fightins are 22-21. The Dodgers were also 36-22 on the last day of May. They are 23-21 since.
It's not cataclysmic that teams might be worse in the middle two months than they were in the first two months. That's when injuries start to take their toll, there's certainly fatigue involved, schedules maybe get harder, the weather changes, some hot starts flatten out due to growing sample size, etc.
Secondly, other than the Dodgers, none of these teams were considered "great" before the season, and every Dodgers pitcher has been eaten by ants. The Phillies were old, the Cubs rotation always felt short and the lineup was half-full, same for the Mets, the Yankees were flawed, and on we go. It could all be a massive market correction.
Still, that's six teams that were around .600 ball or better for two months, and then flattened out to around .500 for the next two or so.
To be fair, the Brewers aren't alone either in surging in the season's second portion. The Jays have gone 29-14. But that's it.
So I was curious if the expansion of the playoffs in 2022 has caused teams to hit the cruise control if they've surged to the top of their divisions by May 31st. Take a little trip, take a little trip, take a little trip with me...
Last season, the teams that were playing around or above .600 ball on May 31st:
NYY: 40-19
BAL: 36-19
CLE: 38-19
KC: 35-24
PHI: 40-18
ATL: 38-23
MIL: 34-23
LA: 36-23
Their records from June 1 to today's current date, July 23rd, 2024:
NYY: 20-24
BAL: 24-21
CLE: 22-21
KC: 21-22
PHI: 24-21
ATL: 22-22
MIL: 24-20
LA: 22-20
So that's eight teams that were rolling through the season's first eight weeks, and then basically all of them (save maybe the Brewers?) basically switched into second or third gear for the next two months. Funny enough, every single one of these teams made the playoffs. It didn't really end up mattering, except for some seeding.
Let's go back to 2023. Teams around or over .600 on May 31:
TB: 40-18
BAL: 35-21
NYY: 34-24
TEX: 35-20
HOU: 32-23
ATL: 33-23
LAD: 34-23
ARI: 33-23
And their records from there until the third week in July:
TB: 21-24
BAL: 26-17
NYY: 19-23
TEX: 24-21
HOU: 24-21
ATL: 31-11
LAD: 23-18
ARI: 21-23
A little better, with both the Orioles and Atlanta really surging, but still a lot of pulling over to the side of the road for a bit to take a shit. And all these teams, except the Yankees, made the playoffs.
Back to 2022, the first season of the expanded playoffs, at May 31:
NYY: 34-15
TOR: 28-20
MIN: 30-21
HOU: 32-18
NYM: 34-17
MIL: 32-19
LAD: 33-16
SD: 30-19
And then:
NYY: 31-16
TOR: 24-23
MIN: 21-24
HOU: 31-14
NYM: 24-20
MIL: 20-24
LAD: 30-14
SD: 24-23
So three teams that were already good that stepped on the gas in the Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers. Both the Twins and Brewers ended up coughing up playoff spots from this point in the season.
Only a few seasons probably isn't a big enough sample size to really determine anything for sure. But over four seasons, we can see a trend of teams that come out of the blocks hot conserving themselves in the middle drag of the season, if we're being polite. And what we do see, for the most part, is that coasting through June and July rarely costs teams come the end of September.
The numbers say that in 2022, three teams kept bashing skulls from the season's opening third to its middle one. In 2023, it was two. Last season, it was maybe one. This year, none.
In reverse, two teams from 2022's opening glitterati missed the playoffs, then one in '23, and none last year.
Maybe teams are just pacing themselves more than ever, given the soft landing the expanded playoffs provide. Maybe it's just an anomaly, aided in the fact that so few teams made themselves as robust as can be. A bit curious though, no?