Hawks Gameday: Texas Two-Step

Programming note: I'll be on a trip by the time this arrives in your inbox. Having left last night I didn't get a chance to do any notes or wrap-ups of the Hawks tilt with the Wings, so this will just be a preview for tonight's game against the Stars. Normal service resumes on Tuesday morning.

Sector 1901 - Texas Two-Step

Dallas Stars Lineup

Robertson - Hintze - Dadonov

Steele - Duchene - Seguin

Benn - Johnston - Stankoven

Back - Bourque - Blackwell

Harley - Heiskanen

Lindell - Lyubushkin

Smith Dumba

Oettinger/DeSmith

What You Need To Know: This is an excellent example why I've constantly bellowed that the NHL should reduce the schedule to 76 games. That is to not only lessen the amount of back-to-backs required, but perhaps to even eliminate these types where one team has to fly nearly three hours after playing a game.

Yes, there are teams that are isolated geographically that only have one or two opponents they could play on a back-to-back without heavy flying time. And no, the league doesn't want every B2B a team plays to both be on the road. Still, this seems like a big ask, as the Hawks won't get to their hotel until 3 or 4AM.

Such is life, I suppose. In another weird scheduling quirk, the last time the Stars played at home...they played the Hawks. In the intervening 10 days or so, Dallas toddled off to Finland for some international series games with the Panthers. And they lost both of them, so this will be a rested team (haven't played since Saturday) that is also on the ornery side. Not that the Stars aren't always kind of on the ornery side, but you get the point.

It's been an ok start for the Stars, who much like the rest of the division have been blindsided by the sprints out of the blocks from the Jets and the Wild. The Jets are already 10 points ahead of Dallas, and while it's still very early that is a big gap even at this time of year. They haven't been as solid defensively as one normally associates with a Pete DeBoer outfit, ranking 19th in xGA/60. That's been made up for by being top-10 in xGF/60, but it's a safe bet this is not how DeBoer wants to go about things.

They're paced by Matt Duchene, with 15 points in 11 games, though his 35 percent shooting-percentage has a big red blinking light over it. That's not even the biggest BABIP alert on the team, as Tyler Seguin has five goals on 45 percent shooting. Seguin's chances and shots per game, at least at 5-on-5, have dropped significantly this season, and yet his individual expected-goals rate has gone up, so at least he's picking his spots well. But there certainly is a crash of some variety coming for their Retirement Castle line.

As is usual with the Stars, a big part of their story is their goaltending, where Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith have both been without fault, though they haven't had to stretch terribly as their goals saved above expected aren't all that high. Doesn't need to be when they're carrying save-percentages of .917 and .922, respectively.

While the Hawks tried to get some mileage out of their last game with Dallas, by coming back to within a goal after going down 3-0, they were mostly road-graded and then the Stars went into autopilot. This is a tough matchup for the Hawks, as the Stars make just about everything happen along the wall on both ends. Going to have to get the work boots on tonight.

Player To Watch - Wyatt Johnston

If the Hawks really are trying to model themselves after the Stars, then the latter's handling of Wyatt Johnston compared to the former's of Frank Nazar makes for interesting reading. Nazar was taken one year later and 10 picks higher than Johnston. He played a smattering of games at Michigan in his freshman year due to injury, then was a point-per-game in his sophomore campaign before going pro and getting a cup of coffee with the Hawks last spring. They've stashed him in the AHL this term.

Johnston had one junior season abbreviated by the pandemic, and then lit up the OHL in his second to the tune of nearly two points per game. He's never seen the AHL, and has gotten to play in a sheltered role behind Hintz and Duchene or Seguin, starting most of his shifts in the offensive zone. He jumped from 45 points his rookie year to 61 last year.

Whether two points-per-game in the OHL is worth more than a point-per-game in the NCAA, I leave to you. Just an interesting nugget. The Hawks obviously aren't as stocked down the middle as the Stars, as Connor Bedard still requires some comfy zone starts and Jason Dickinson can't carry every dungeon shift. But c'est la vie.

Johnston is also insurance for the Stars in case it turns out Hintz is just never quite a true #1 center on a Cup contender. Hintz has upped his game off the rush this season, as well as his creation, which is always a good idea when Jason Robertson is on your line. Johnston is more of a shot-taker than a maker, which would seem to make him something of a wonky fit with Robertson.

However, in 237 minutes last year together, Johnston and Robertson were dominant together, with a Corsi of 62.8 and a xG% of 71.1. Food for thought for later in the season for sure.

Sure, the Stars have more on the line than the Hawks, so if Johnston had even a modicum of service to provide, they need every thing on the margins they can get to go from repeating their conference final flameout to moving onto the Final. The Hawks can afford to wait. But a fun study nonetheless.

Have the weekend you need, folks.