Hawks Gameday: The Champ Is Here, Can't Keep A Good Man Down

Getting you set up for the visit of the defending champion Florida Panthers and the ass-kicking that almost certainly awaits, and then some quick thoughts on "the plan."

Sector 1901 - Hawks Gameday; The Champ Is Here

Florida Panthers Lineup

Rodrigues - Barkov - Reinhart

Verhaege - Bennett - Tkachuk

Luostarinen - Lundell - Boqvist

Greer - Nosek - Gadjovich

Forsling - Ekblad

Mikkola - Kulikov

Schmidt - Balinskis

Bobrovsky/Knight

What You Need To Know: The machine keeps on rolling, that's all there is to it. The Cats sit on top of the Atlantic, one point ahead of the Leafs (at the time of writing at least). There isn't a category that they don't rank top-10 in, save their goaltending. Sergei Bobrovsky is doing that thing again where he's pretty average or worse during the regular season. Go back over his career and you might be surprised how many seasons are in there where he was just kind of meh, especially for a two-time Vezina winner. But it would be hard to get the Panthers to care given they're still in 1st and they don't really need him to try all that hard until April.

As for the outfit in front of him, the Panthers have three players averaging over a point-per-game in Reinhart, Bennett, and Barkov, though the latter has missed some time due to injury. A further five have 10 points or more. Compare that with the Wayward Children of Madison, who merely have three players in double-digits in points.

As far as minutes go, Barkov has been more of a #2 center behind Bennett this season, which also might be a nod to his health issues and trying to get him through until the playoffs. He's still more than worthy of taking the Selke-every-year mantle from Patrice Bergeron, as his Corsi and expected-goals share are both 60 percent or higher even with starting less than half his shifts in the offensive zone. This is the premier 200-foot center in the game and no other suggestions will be accepted at this time.

It's the top-six that will keep the Panthers atop the favorites list for most, as it hasn't really lost a step from last season. No, Evan Rodrigues probably doesn't belong in it, but that's something they can probably address before the trade deadline if they feel the need.

The big fear for the Panthers, if there was one, was losing Brandon Montour to free agency and their defensive depth afterwards. Mikkola and Kulikov haven't really set the world on fire, but they've managed to stay above water. The change has come on the third-pairing, where longtime darling of my heart Nate Schmidt has settled nicely into a late-career, third-pairing bum-slayer role (that's a lot of hyphens!). He's making just $880k this season, and now let's take a moment to think about handing out contracts to T.J. Brodie and Alec Martinez instead of Schmidt. Don't worry, your lunch will go back down.

If you want to feel better, this won't help, but so far Florida's rehab attempt on Adam Boqvist hasn't worked out. He's played about half the games but has been the same disaster in his own zone he always was and is the #7 d-man most nights. Got a little out over their skis on this one, the Cats did. But it won't cost them much, and they can be excused for believing in their powers just a tad much after the past two springs.

Looking ahead for the Panthers, their third line could probably use some help. Lundell and Luostarinen haven't really been the same force they had in this spot last spring. The Panthers don't have to have a normal checking line given the heroics that Barkov can perform on a nightly basis. If they address the small hole on the top six and punt Rodrigues down to it that'll probably be enough. Or they'll just trade for Jason Dickinson and we'll watch him win the Conn Smythe or something.

For tonight, not only are the Cats just that much better than our local squad, but there is simply no way the Hawks can live with the forecheck that no one had an answer for last year, especially without Seth Jones. If anyone wants a barometer on how much Allan or Kaiser might have grown since the start of the season, here you go. Anything above drowning will be a success.

Assuming the Hawks can ever get out of their own zone, Florida's goaltending hasn't been great, and to boot they're likely to see Spencer Knight as the Hawks are sandwiched between the Jets and Avs as opponents for the Panthers. But then again, most construction horses could probably get out of the UC these days having only given up a goal or two.

Yet this is one of those games where a team like the Hawks, with great fear of being utterly embarrassed by a far superior team, generally puts out a pretty worthy effort and maybe catches the other team napping a touch. That doesn't mean a win, but don't be surprised if you see something a little more spirited from the Red and Black. More spirited as in a 4-2 loss, obviously, but wasn't that the whole point of this season?

Player To Watch - Gustav Forsling: It's awfully tempting to lament how the Hawks let Joel Qunneville simply give up on Gustav Forsling, after giving him so much rope on complete bums like Trevor van Riemsdyk. But we all have to admit Forsling needed a longer runway than most, the Hawks were decomposing at the time he was here, he wasn't very good here, and even the defensemen-factory Hurricanes also didn't seem to have much use for him. He never even played a game for them.

And then, of course, he turned into the best d-man in the playoffs last year. It doesn't have to make sense. Forsling just responded to the ultra-aggressive way that Paul Maurice wants to defend, and behind this crop of forwards the Panthers blue line group doesn't have to do nearly as much as others. Teams barely survive that forecheck so even if they get to the neutral zone, they're usually just looking to dump the puck in and change. It allows all of the Panthers d-men to step up pretty high and not deal with a lot of odd-man rushes. This fits Forsling, who doesn't really want to be consistently retrieving the puck behind his net under heavy pressure, though he can do it just fine. He may not be a dynamo in starting his team the other way, but he's clean in getting it out of his zone.

Forsling had some glittering metrics last season, though they've calmed down a bit this season. He and Ekblad have had to take more shifts in their own end with Montour now gone and Mikkola and Kulikov not really up to the task. Their metrics have held steady enough. Sometimes, it's really hard to see the diamond in the coal. The Hawks certainly didn't. But they got a lot wrong back then, and no one was saying Forsling was worth polishing over time. Sometimes a team just loses these.

• Before we depart for the day, it's probably worth discussing this:

Look, we all get "the plan." We know this organization is still scarred by Kirby Dach somehow, while also somehow ignoring that not only did Kirby Dach suck but he didn't care that he sucked. That was the real problem We know they misdiagnosed the problem with Kevin Korchinski last year. That's all well and good.

The problem is how long can you do this before your players start to A. take shortcuts B. Think that the Hawks are trying to cost them money and C. Really wonder if they don't have their players' best interest at hand.

Frank Nazar is already fisting the AHL. It's fine for another month or so, give him a real stretch. But after that? There comes a time when it's too easy. Why is Nazar going to play a total 200-foot game when he's dominating for so long? He certainly doesn't and won't have to.

Would you like a list of yutzes that the Hawks threw a bone last year for playing well in Rockford? Reese Johnson, Zach Sanford, Brett Seney, Ethan Del Maestro, Filip Roos, Rem Pitlick, and Landon Slaggert. That's not even the whole list, but it makes the point.

While there's value in letting players learn the pro game, there's also value in giving them what they deserve. If Nazar puts up another month of kicking in skulls in the A, then he's earned his call-up. Keeping him down is a waste of everyone's time.

As bad as the Hawks are, there's a better structure here now. The defense is actually ok (barely). The goaltending is representative. Not every mistake a player makes is going to end up in the net. The time to start moving this along will come soon, and the Hawks can't ignore it simply for the sake of it.