Hawks Gameday: Weren't You A Delicate Genius Once?

Programming Note: Due to travel plans, tomorrow's newsletter is likely only to be a preview of the Hawks trip to Dallas, and there won't be a newsletter Friday or Monday. Anyway, on to the shenanigans

Sector 1901 - Weren't You a Genius Once?

Detroit Red Wings Lineup

DeBrincat - Larkin - Kane

Copp - Compher - Raymond

Berggren - Kasper - Tarasenko

Rasmussen - Veleno - Fischer

Edvinsson - Seider

Chiarot - Petry

Gustafsson - Johansson

Talbot/Lyon

What You Need To Know: Remember how we have been saying that the construction of the Hawks of the 2010s was one of the biggest accidents in sports history? And how Dale Tallon's inability to come anywhere close to doing so again in Florida helped prove that? Maybe it's time we attach the "accident" label to what Steve Yzerman did in Tampa.

People, this Red Wings team is total butt. And moreover, there are some woeful contracts here. They are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, and they are the worst even-strength offensive team so far this season. They can't do anything right. They're a bottom-five penalty kill. If it wasn't for the power play being in the top-10, they might be in the league's basement. As it is, they're only two points ahead of the East's lowest point-total anyway.

Where would you like to start? It certainly is an interesting team-building strategy when it starts with, "Hey remember that winger combination in Chicago that never played a game that mattered? What if we reconstructed it except they'll both be older and have three hips combined?" Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane have produced goals, most likely a heap of "yeah but who gives a shit?" goals, but have been an utter disaster defensively. Both rank in the bottom-20 amongst all forwards in xGA/60 at 5-on-5. Quite simply, these two would have to go Gretzky-Kurri to outscore the opposition when they're on the ice, and they're not going to do that.

Between them, Dylan Larkin is good, but he's never really shown that he's #1 center-on-a-team-that-anyone-should-give-a-rat's ass-about good. He'd probably be one of the league's best #2 centers, but the Wings can't really make him that. They need him at the top of the lineup, and this is one of the problems.

Below that is where it gets better. If you think Kane and DeBrincat are bad defensively, wait until you get a load of J.T. Compher at center! He was the second signing where Yzerman got totally bewitched by a one-off playoff performance, coming the summer after he did the same with Andrew Copp, who also sucks ass! Somehow carrying around these two lunkheads, Lucas Raymond leads the team in scoring, and might be their only genuine star. He only has one goal on the season, mostly thanks to a 5.6 shooting-percentage. But that's probably the market correction for the unsustainable 19.0 mark he chalked up last year. Scarier for the now Jared Goff jersey-adorned Wings fan in your life (you all have one), is that Raymond's chances and shots haven't gone up this time around. So if his shooting-percentage is just going to level out, he's more of a 20-25 goal guy than a 30-goal one. It's ok, teams without stars go real far, right?

There's a couple kids on the third line who are at least interesting. Jonathan Berggren spent most of the season two years ago with the Wings, looked pretty competent, and then spent last year in the AHL for... reasons. He was a point-per-game in Grand Rapids at least. Marco Kasper was a first-round pick in 2022, wasn't as good in the AHL as Berggren last year, and is basically getting clubbed so far as a third-line center. Somehow, Vladimir Tarasenko is only 32, but his three points in 10 games suggest he's playing much older. Those playoff goals Tank scored against the Hawks in 2014? Yeah, those were over 10 years ago. You're old and need to be Logan's Run'd.

On the back end, Wings Nation's latest piercing wailing that could penetrate any panic room for the past couple years has been that we can't judge Moritz Seider by numbers or metrics because he has the toughest assignments in the league. No one takes dungeon shifts like Seider, apparently. Gandalf had it easier fighting Balrog, according to them.

Seider isn't the first d-man to consistently be assigned the other team's top line, nor to start a majority of his shifts on his half of the ice. But this year his zone-starts have improved, to the point where about half of them start in the offensive zone. Relative to his team, his metrics are far improved, though it would be nearly impossible to be worse than the rest of his team. Seider is pretty decent at stepping up at his line, but he's not very skilled at breaking his team out of the zone cleanly, which is partly why the Wings' possession metrics are so cheeks. He's more of a flinger than a passer or a carrier. And the Wings don't have another d-man to link them from their end-boards to their forwards.

But Seider is far, far from the biggest problem on the Wings blue line. Ben Chiarot has always been a disaster, and Yzerman handed this yutz a four-year deal. Jeff Petry is toast. Erik Gustafsson was only ever a third-pairing bum-slayer, and now he can't even do that, so he's being slayed by bums. Can't even find a decent winger to get slayed by!

Both Alex Lyon and Cam And Magic Talbot have been excellent in net, and without them, Yzerman and coach Derek Lalonde might already be out on their ass. But where is this going? It is likely that Raymond and Larkin are just really good support, second-line players. Where are the top-line players? Oh sure, your Red Wings buddy will lax lyrical about some eighth-grader lighting it up in the German schools division or whatever, but Yzerman has had more than enough time to solve this problem and hasn't. So far this season, this team looks like it's going backwards from the one that needed three or four hail marys in the last two weeks of last season to barely miss the playoffs.

The Wings might have caught a break in that the Sabres haven't taken a step forward (much to my chagrin), but the Senators might have. Are the Bruins tumbling out of a playoff spot? Maaayyyyybee. There might be one wildcard spot open in the East, but a lot is going to have to change for Detroit to get anywhere near it.

We take no pleasure in comparing Yzerman to Tallon (we said it with a straight face! Honest!) but another season that ends in mid-April might mark the Yzerplan out as something that just went on a heater in Tampa without any real foundation to it.

Player To Watch - Top Cat

We loved Alex DeBrincat. While recognizing his faults, his dead-shot eye for goal was something the Hawks rarely had. And while he started as merely a not all that mobile spot-up shooter, he at least hinted at becoming a better and better playmaker as he gained more experience.

His trade out of Chicago was something of a shock, but also made a lot of sense. No one could shake the feeling that Top Cat might just be reprising the role of Jeff Skinner. The king of scoring goals that didn't matter. And if he didn't score 35 or more goals, then he really wasn't a plus-player to have around. The picks he netted in return provided the Hawks with Kevin Korchinski, Paul Ludwinski, and Anthony Spellacy, which has a pretty decent chance of looking like an excellent return (even if Spellacy can overly seduce with his speed, but we'll see).

The Senators got less for him, but soon may be giggling they got anything at all.

DeBrincat has five goals on the season, which is a 37-goal pace. But everything underneath those numbers suggest he's headed for a crash-landing and soon. His 20 percent shooting percentage would be the first clue. His chances, shots, and attempts all being nearly cut in half this season from last are a bigger one. He's coughing up the puck at a rate to make you wonder if he didn't fill his water bottle with ipecac. His shots are coming from farther and farther away from the net.

Some of the loss in chances and attempts for DeBrincat can be explained by how woeful his line has been defensively, and the Wings have been overall. But he's not blameless in that, even if Patrick Kane can't move anymore to even attempt to feign to care about that half of the ice. But DeBrincat's chance-creation never really rose from the initial spurts here in Chicago, and he now is definitely just a spot-up shooter. We know his shortcomings defensively. He doesn't really carry the puck much, and especially not into the offensive zone to generate things for Detroit. He's never been great along the wall, instead waiting for those who are to get him chances. But the Wings don't have that, and Larkin is already being asked to do way too much on this line.

DeBrincat is just another symptom of a major problem for the Wings, a second-line player being asked to do first-line things. On a team with a complete top line, DeBrincat would fit perfectly on a sheltered, boosted second-line that gets to bum-slay and never start in their own zone while also being a weapon on the power play. But the Wings don't have that, and one gets the feeling that Top Cat will continue to score a lot of goals that no one cares about three minutes after they're over.

The Kickmen - Maybe They Should Try Getting Closer

The thing is, as a Liverpool supporter, I already know that I'm going to look like a moron come May. There's nothing I can say here that someone can come beat me over the head with when the league title once against heads to Eastlands that will make it any worse, because I've already accepted my fate. I'm not crappin' anyone.

With that out of the way, I can point out without trepidation that while City had most of the ball against Sporting Lisbon, and even created more chances, when it came time to in the ball back, they weren't anywhere close to Sporting's lightning counters.

On Tuesday, City only even attempted 15 tackles, which is how easily the Portuguese side skipped away from their challenges when they turned the ball over.

Even while getting outplayed by Bournemouth last Saturday, they attempted 25. While running over Southampton a couple weeks ago, when they were barely under threat, they attempted 23. When they barely scraped by Fulham 3-2 at home, they attempted 34.

It's too easy to point to Rodri not being there as why they can't stem a counter-attack, mostly because it was still kind of a problem when Rodri was healthy this season. It's just gotten worse.

Anyway, save for the spring. You can't hurt me anymore.

Please share with anyone via any method you want. I'm probably unplugging totally so will need the help.