Here We Are Now, Entertain Us: Men's Olympic Hockey Preview

All the rigamarole of picking the rosters is over. Now there's actual hockey. Will it be any good?

People sometimes forget that the debates over who actually makes these Olympic teams, and then the announcement of the rosters, is often the most fun part of the Olympic hockey experience. What do you remember about the last tournament to feature NHL players? Not much, right? Maybe it was Canada shutting out the US in the semifinal with such ease you wondered if the Yanks had been poisoned. T.J. Oshie's shootout heroics made him millions more than he might have gotten, but it was also a shootout in the preliminary round between two teams who didn't even medal. Other than that, the rest of the tournament has drifted away with the rest of the river sediment of history.

There's an idea that every tournament that's been best-on-best has been 2010 Vancouver or the 1996 World Cup. Not true. The US sent a garbage team to the 2006 edition and rightly got their ass bounced early. Canada wasn't a particularly vintage squad, either, and got bounced in the quarters, too. Do you remember anything about the Sweden-Finland final? Other than maybe getting your first glimpse at how handsome Henrik Lundqvist was? No, you don't.

Salt Lake was an excellent example of how goofy this tournament can get. Canada were basically awful until the semifinal, and maybe not even until the final, which they got to partly thanks to Belarus taking out Sweden for them. Then they played far and away their best game of the tournament, and won gold over the US. A US team that was basically picked because it had won the World Cup six years previously, and no one bothered to notice they were six years older.

Anyway, just pointing out that there's no guarantee of great hockey here, or games that will live on forever. It's also an example of how weird things can happen in a tournament where really only three, maybe four, games matter for each team. Especially the ones that would have ideas about gold. It can be random, and a goalie like Lundqvist or Hasek (or Price in '14) can just seize it.

The other important factor to remember is that for all the teeth-gnashing about who made the teams and who didn't, those choices probably won't be the final reason either the US or Canada win or don't win. Jason Robertson and Lane Hutston should be in Milan, but if the Yanks eat it, it could be for a host of other reasons (probably dumb penalties, would be my bet). Both these teams are so stacked with talent that who is there is more than good enough to get through a short tournament.

Right, so the only intrigue in the prelim round is whether someone can fuck up a US-Canada final and put that in the semifinal. Without Russia (rightly, despite what you hear from some corners), these groups are even more of a formality. The US got the sweetheart draw, as Denmark, Germany, and Latvia almost certainly aren't going to throw a scare into them. Everyone remembers one great Latvian goalie performance in Sochi, but that is the exception that proves the rule. Merzlikins has a .888 so far this season. Maybe for 10 days he can drink some virgin's blood or something, but don't count on it.

Which means the US can not only go 3-0, but rack up a pretty big goal-difference while they're at it. It could come down to that. Still, to knock Canada or Sweden down to fourth or lower, it'll take more than that. Sweden will get the hanging curve of Italy in their group, but they'll also have to face forever nuisance Finland, who aren't going to get blown out. Canada has to put up with Czechia, who have both Dostal and Vejmelka that have been really spicy in the past month or so. That's also Canada's first game, so if they're ever going to be caught cold, it's probably right out of the gate. Sweden nearly pulled that trick, probably should have, in the 4 Nations.

So, to the two protagonists of this, which NBC will be praying get to the Gold Medal game. I'm not sure it's ever been the case that the US has a deeper team than The Hosers, but they do here. While Canada's top end of McDavid-MacKinnon-Crosby might rival the '87 Canada Cup squad that every aged columnist in Toronto still faps to, look farther down and you'll see. Hughes The Middle, Nelson, Larkin, Keller, Guenztel, might just make for a better bottom six than Jarvis, Bennett, Hagel, Stone, and Suzuki. Whatever difference there may be isn't nearly as big as we're used to seeing. It could have been bigger if Bill Guerin had told J.T. Miller and maybe even Trocheck to do one, but it's Bill Guerin, after all.

The gap is more pronounced on the blue line. While Makar is always scary on a top pair, the US really do go through 1-7. They'll have Jake Sanderson and Zach Werenski on their third pairing. The Canadians will have some combo of a decomposing Drew Doughty, Travis Sanheim, Thomas Harley, Colton Parayko. That's a definite advantage for the US. The thing is, it's not really a huge advantage in a knockout tournament where anything can happen in one game.

The US is in the interesting position that the goalie that is playing best is the one least likely to play. Oettinger and Hellebuyck have been exceptionally wonky this season. Jeremy Swayman is playing better than either fo them. Mike Sullivan doesn't have the stones to bypass either of the first two, however. He doesn't even really have the stones to skip over Hellebuyck for Oettinger, the far more proven playoff performer, because Hellebuyck put together two good games in the 4 Nations. It's not exactly a stone cold case.

Canada could absolutely blow its own face off by sticking to the same reasoning as the US which takes the 4 Nations as gospel and start Jordan Binnington. As I assume Jon Cooper hasn't had his brain infected by parasites, that won't happen. Either Logan Thompson or Darcy Kuemper have been more than acceptable this season, and both can absolutely backstop this team to gold if just some of the top end of the roster freaks the fuck off.

Can anyone upset the apple cart? Sweden has both of the Wild's goalies in Wallstedt and Gustavsson, and both have been excellent this season. In fact, Wallstedt is playing better right now than any goalie on the US or Canada. Just doesn't have the name recognition. But Sweden's defense is relying on three alte kakers in Hedman, Karlsson, and OEL. Brodin's injury is a real blow. Hedman only just got back from injury. This would have been a kickass defense in 2018 or 2022. They're also pretty thin down the middle.

The Finns don't have the goaltending that usually makes them truly obstreperous, as Saros is past his sell-by date. They do have a stronger lineup down the middle than the Swedes though, as Aho-Hintze-Lundell could end up being pretty unpleasant to face. We've seen Rantanen win a playoff series on his own before. He'll have to go supernova again if the Finns are going to medal, because the other wingers here are dog meat.

Czechia have two goalies to choose from, which is nice, and a top line with Pastrnak and Necas that could do damage if left unchecked. But there is no defense here to speak of, and their centers are pretty weak, too. If we could combine Finland's centers with Czechia's wingers, we might have something.

So, bottom line, Sweden and Czechia both have the goalies that can get hot that makes any tourney like this interesting, but not of the level where it's guaranteed. But then any goalie might only have to get hot for three games. Anyone can do that.

This is probably due its own post sometime soon, but whereas I will be an unabashed USMNT fan come the World Cup, there is something itchy about this Team USA. It's probably the visage of both Tkachuks, the dumbass rich kid vibe that has basically sunk this entire country into the morass we currently find ourselves. I don't know. But Canada losing would also be hysterically funny.

When I look at the US, Matthew Tkachuk and Eichel are the only ones on it with rings. Players who have proven to be killers when need be, though Eichel has also come up pretty short at times, too. We've seen what happens when Matthews has big games on his stick. He gets stuffed by Jordan Binnington. McDavid, MacKinnon, Crosby, Makar, Marchand, Stone, Bennett, these guys have all scored the biggest goals. This is the problem.