How Seriously Do You Need To Take The Dallas Stars?
The Central Division contains the two best teams in the league. Is the second as close to the first as it appears?
The story of the Western Conference so far this season, and what will most likely be the story all the way to April, is the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars eyeballing each other until they inevitably meet in the second round. Again. Perhaps nothing has colored the Avs plan last summer more than their seven-game loss to the Stars in last year's first round and the seething ire they drew from it.
Certainly, these teams feel more and more like mirror images of each other. Both have top lines to tear a hole in the world. The Avs go with MacKinnon and Necas, while the Stars have Rantanen and Johnston. Both now have entries into the argument for best second-line in the league, too. This has been a weak point for Colorado ever since Nazem Kadri traipsed off to Calgary. But now bolstered by Brock Nelson and the return of Gabriel Landeskog, it's gone from underbelly to strength. The Stars have Jason Robertson having a career year, alongside Roope Hintz (though they just lost a major cog on that unit, and we'll get to that).
Both have generational puck-movers on the top pairing, in Cale Makar and Miro Heiskanen. These two are just mirrors, staring at each other over a fence line, just waiting until the time to engage is upon them. One wonders if they aren't going to tear enough off each other in the 2nd round that there won't be much left for whoever makes it out of the Pacific. Though given how the Pacific has looked so far this season, it might not matter all that much.
At first glance, there looks to be a little air in the Stars. Though they've won seven of nine, and have clubbed the Canadiens, Oilers, and Senators while they were at it, their metrics are a little wonky. They rank 30th in Corsi percentage, while being just below break-even in expected goals. Being second in shooting-percentage, and sixth in save-percentage, certainly sets off some fraud alarms. Especially when the better half of the goaltending work has been done by charm school graduate Casey DeSmith, and not Jake Oettinger. Oettinger hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been too much more than average-plus. Which kind of continues a trend for him. Still, that won't generated a controversy in the Dallas crease come April.
But this is a case where the numbers don't tell a whole story. The Stars trail in Corsi ratings because they eschew a lot of attempts in search for better ones. No one is anywhere near them in the basement of attempts per game. The Sharks average two more attempts per game in 31st. But that has a lot to do with the Stars complete aversion from firing from the point, and using Heiskanen's, Harley's, and others' mobility to try and get the puck to better areas. Look at some of these shot charts:
This was a 6-1 win.
This was last night's 3-0 in Newark.
It doesn't mean that the Stars are trading point shots for grade A chances entirely. They rank 24th in both xG/60 and high-danger chances per 60. Without the boon of a probably unsustainable shooting percentage, the goals might dry up. A power play connecting nearly a third of the time helps with that, for sure. And while they're shooting 20 percent on the man-advantage, they also get the best looks in the league on the power play (1st in xG on the PP). That unit might just keep ticking at a league-high rate all season. They're also sixth in the league in power play opportunities, which might only go up the more they keep moving in the offensive end and don't just settle for shots from downtown.
Look across the Dallas blue line, and all of their shots and attempts per game at even-strength are down. But not their expected goals. Glen Gulutzan has put an emphasis on just getting them better shots than from 65 feet, and a good portion of them have the mobility and vision to cycle down and get between the circles or into the slot.
Case in point from last night:
There are other worries, though. The Stars are getting beat up. Seguin is now done for the year after something new exploded on him, this time his ACL. Harley is missing their current roadtrip. Matt Duchene has only played four games, though he's due back soon. Now Lian Bichsel (who I'm pretty sure sucks anyway but they don't) is going to be out a month or longer.
Seguin's injury in particular makes the Stars pretty top-heavy. When comparing with their destiny, the Avs have nine forwards over 10 points. The Stars have six, and one was Seguin. Though he'll be replaced by Duchene soon, so they won't lose much. But they won't gain much, either.
The biggest thing to watch with the Stars is how much they can improve their chance-creation with this system. Having Harley around would help. A date with the Avs, who get chances from everywhere, get scary if the Stars remain overly-choosy. They might not have to outscore the Avs over seven games, but within that there will be two or three 5-4 games, at least.
Right now, they both look the class of the league, but it's clear which of the two have more questions.