I Ain't Even Got A Lover Down Here On The Farm, And The Northside 9 Are Restless
Sector 1901 - I Ain't Even Got A Lover Down Here On The Farm
For the newbs, Sector 1901 will be the Hawks section of the newsletter.
As you may have guessed, I'm probably going to spend an inordinate amount of time analyzing, and probably moaning about, how the Hawks treat their prospects this season. And I'm not talking about the Colton Dachs and Wyatt Kaisers of the world (and I like Kaiser!). Hawks fans can put their concerns about future third and fourth liners and bottom pairing d-men off to the side for a long while, until the Hawks have the top of their future contending roster settled. And they very much don't. So the only players that matter this season are Connor Bedard, Alex Vlasic, Kevin Korchinski, and Frank Nazar (LET'S START A WAR). †
We don't have to worry about Bedard and Vlasic. They'll be in Chicago all season, and playing big minutes, though Vlasic's early pairing with T.J. Brodie in camp is going to make sure my house is always stocked with Alka-seltzer. †So we'll focus on Frankie No Nose and Korch the next little while.
We'll start with Nazar, as I went over Korch a bit already. For the Supermarket Sweep GM Kyle Davidson performed amongst the aisles of second-tier-and-below vets this summer, the #2 center role remained gapingly open. So to did the #3 center role, as if Andreas Athanasiou is the answer then you are obviously asking all the wrong questions. Jason Dickinson is more conditioned to perform the traditional role of what a #3 center is usually asked, though I would love for the Hawks to go outside the box and use a "3+1" lines model, especially if they have even close to the amount of talent in the system that they've been shouting from the hilltops about. But let's run that kitten over at a later date.
Back to Nazar. As off as it might sound, it would be a gentler introduction to a full NHL season to have him on the second line and basically tell him to "do shit," rather than saddling him with a tough checking role as well most nights. But the Hawks also seem determined to force Nazar west on I-90 for at least a portion of the season, mostly to say they did.
Is that what other teams do? One system of comparison is to take Nazar's draft slot and look at others who were taken there. Remember, this is the 13th overall pick in the 2021 draft. Nazar isn't a mid-to-late round sleeper. Last year's 13th pick, Zach Benson, immediately leapt into Buffalo's lineup every night. The Sabres direction and placing can be debated for sure, but they were an 84-point team last season, a points-total that the Hawks would have to perform a handful of miracles to get to this season. This squad is hardly less accessible for a young player than last year's Sabres outfit.
2021's 13th overall pick was Calgary's Matthew Coronato. Coronato got two more college seasons after that--and it's important to remember that Nazar missed most of his first college season through injury--and then split last year between Calgary and the AHL, totaling nine points in 36 NHL games.
2020's 13th pick was Carolina's Seth Jarvis, who played one season in the WHL after being drafted and has been in Raleigh ever since. 2019's 13th overall pick was Spencer Knight, but goalies are a whole other thing. 2018's was Dallas's Ty Dellandria. Dellandria played two more seasons in the OHL with Flint, then had the pandemic to deal with that saw him play in Finland, the AHL, and with the Stars all in one season, before one full season in the AHL and then joining the Stars full-time the past two campaigns.
2017's 13th pick was Nick Suzuki, who played two more seasons in the OHL after being drafted, and has been a Canadien ever since.
From that sample, we see that players picked in that slot have kind of been all over the map as far as how they've been developed. Most did another season in junior and then spent no more than a season in the AHL.
Nazar, of the recent 13th picks, is the only one who was in college, which whether Canadians like it or not is a step up, or a half-step up, from juniors for a 19- or 20-year-old, as he's playing against players older than him as well as the same age instead of being oldest in the league. Certainly Nazar has just as much experience heading into training camp as Jarvis did, and both were a point-per-game in their last amateur year (Jarvis also missed a large chunk of his last OHL season through injury). Benson put up 98 points in 60 WHL games after being drafted, and then was a Sabre.
But then Coronato was also a point-per-game in ECAC for two seasons, and hasn't found his footing in the NHL yet.
While you and I just want something to watch this season, the point remains that unless Nazar looks completely lost during training camp and whatever preseason games he skates in, he should be given every opportunity to break camp with the NHL roster. The Hawks aren't playing for anything this season, and certainly can give Nazar the first 10-20 games to see if he completely drowns or not. Rockford isn't going anywhere (unfortunately for all of us, really, Sorry, Desipio). Yes, other 13th picks have taken that path, but Nazar's road looks a lot like those who didn't.
Given Nazar's role and production at Michigan, which is a bigger program than Harvard's (Coronato), and his draft status, the Hawks really should be planning on him being an NHL-er from jump street. To send him to the Hogs just smacks of doing it to say you did.
I've prattled on long enough about this. We can get to Korch's development tomorrow.
Somewhere Between G-Man And Nisei - The Northside 9 Are Restless
Trying this for any Cubs stuff. I think I like it.
For the fourth straight season, which should be unacceptable and would be to all the other baseball organizations Cubs fans would like to pretend they're on par with, the Cubs have gotten to play the last week of their season under the radar. The Bears are taking up everyone's attention, and whatever baseball interest is left in this town has been shifted to gawking at the 20-care pileup on the Southside (though from a distance for fear of radiation poisoning).
But if you were paying attention, you might have noticed some restless quotes from a couple people in blue pinstripes. And if you were an impish sort, which I've never been accused of, you might just think there were some lofted barbs aimed at those upstairs of the clubhouse.
It started with Craig Counsell's pre-series presser from Friday:
“We should be trying to build 90-win teams here.”
It continued with Jameson Taillon and Dansby Swanson on Saturday. Now this could be boiler-plate, end-of-season fare from a manager and vets who have all gotten through a frustrating season. But it's hard not to pick up on the undertones, which is that all three of these guys think the Cubs should be the scary monster roaming the quiet countryside of the NL Central and at least a hint of agitation that maybe the front office hasn't come along for that ride of late.
It's hard to know what was promised to Counsell or Swanson when they signed their big deals. Taillon probably wouldn't have gotten such a window into future plans given his status, but he wouldn't have suffered for offers back when he was a free agent so the Cubs had to sell him on more than money, you'd think.
It certainly doesn't jibe with Tom Ricketts's hope before the season that the Cubs could emulate last year's Diamondbacks, who wheezed to 84 wins and then got hot against a completely frazzled Dodgers outfit and the Phillies before getting utterly smoked in the World Series. And given what we've seen of the Ricketts running of this team for the past few years, it would hardly be a shock if that's always the plan, 86-and-pray.
Counsell, Swanson, and Taillon have been around long enough to know what those full stands every day at Wrigley mean for the organization's capabilities. Counsell and Taillon have already seen what a spend-thrift organizations can be limited to. Counsell didn't leave the Brewers to only watch a far richer team try to operate like the Brewers, at least you wouldn't think, though the $8 million a year certainly helps .
While Swanson may be paid like it, the reason the Cubs are going to be sitting at home once again even though it's never been easier to make the playoffs is they don't have any stars, no players in the top 25 in WAR on either side of the ball. Swanson and Taillon both came from teams loaded with such players. They know where that takes a team. Counsell isn't blind to that either, given the years that Christian Yelich was carrying those Brewers to heights unseen before.
It probably doesn't mean much, but should the Cubs end up back here in a year's time with no chances taken by management. let's just say everyone's going to be far crankier.
I'd be remiss if I didn't bump friend Julie DiCaro's "Losing My Perspicacity" newsletter. And remember to share and retweet and forward this one so we can keep growing. The initial sign-up and response has been great, and I want to ride the wave as long as I can.
