I See England Waving - Premier League Preview: The Business End

We're at the top of the table now, as we wrap up and get you ready for tomorrow's kickoff of this nine month sojourn of cold and dark mornings watching footy from cold and dark afternoons.

Newcastle

There's two ways Newcastle's season can go. One, the Isak drama-to-departure wrecks the team, leaving them without a recognized striker as well as the malaise that their best player didn't think this club could achieve more than it already has. Their summer of being rejected by all their interests (feel that one, fam!) leaves the team short of options as they have to take on at least eight Champions League games, as there's little cover for the midfield three of Guimarães, Joelinton, and Tonali. Seeing as how Newcastle's success last season was mostly based on their energy and physicality, any sort of sapping of the battery is going to leave them hamstrung. Solid defensive work but a lack of goals and ingenuity at the other end leads to too many 0-0 draws or 1-0 losses. Puttering into 7th and 8th and a meek Champions League exit leaves the likes of Anthony Gordon and Guimarães wondering if the Newcastle is really the club on the silver mountain.

Two, something of a Ewing Theory. The Isak drama-to-departure galvanizes the team, they spend the season in "Fuck You" mode, doing everything they can to prove that they are a club worthy of the next Isak to come along. They either find a suitable replacement, or their collection of wide attackers are able to fake it for a season with a lot of hot, false-9 action. The midfield three stays healthy, and Lewis Miley and Joe Willock can provide adequate cover. The defense remains mean, and Eddie Howe can monkey-hump this team to enough 1-0s to end in the top five again.

Chelsea

If you go by metrics, specifically expected goal-difference, Chelsea were actually a shade better than Man City last season. If they'd had a center forward worth a shit, they might have finished third. Chelsea supporters, especially a close friend whom I hate, will insist they be called "world champions," which will not happen here. But it feels like after constantly shaking the etch-a-sketch and banging their toy soldiers into each other, they may have actually Clouseau'd their way into a pretty tasty team.

There could actually be some continuity, with Cucurella, Tosin, Chalobah, Caicedo, Fernandez, Palmer, and Pedro Neto all having played major roles last season looking to do so again this season. They'll be aided by an actual striker in Joao Pedro, and Jamie Gittens on the left. Reece James is, at the time of writing, still intact, but check every 10 minutes with him. There's depth at every position. They could get obstreperous.

Hanging over all of it, though, is just how much the bill of going all the way in the Club World Cup is going to come due at the end of the season. It was a totally borked summer for Chelsea, with players only getting three weeks off and barely any kind of preseason. They can't just have their first team ignore European competition this time around with a return to the Champions League. How many of these guys just run out of gas in March?

Manchester City

It just feels like everyone is doing their best to not talk about Godzilla roaming the countryside just outside the city in the hopes that if they don't mention it out loud, he'll just go away. This is still Man City, it's still Pep Guardiola.

There are freaks everywhere in this team. There's the ones everyone already knows about--Haaland, Marmoush, Bernardo Silva, Rodri, Gavardiol, etc. They've added Ligue 1's biggest offensive wizard in Rayan Cherki, though the most entertaining aspect of his game might be watching Pep beseech him to even think about pressing. Cherki is perhaps the most streetball player Pep has ever had.

Tijjani Reijnders looks like the exact guy who will take the torch from Gundogan and both Silvas or Foden, the midfielder who just appears in the box and scores and all the opposing defenders stare at each other to try and figure out where he came from or if he just appeared from the ether. Rayan Ait-Nouri is a pretty nifty fullback. Oh, and they might add Gianluigi Donnarumma to this. If they don't, they have James Trafford, who turned Burnley into a record-setting defense last season in the Championship. There aren't automatic spots for Foden, who was Player Of The Season just 18 months ago, Savinho, and Jeremy Doku. Savinho may defect to Spurs, and rumor has it City might replace him with Rodrygo from Real Madrid. Though Rodrigo and Cherki being asked to be the first line of defense...this would be Pep's greatest trick.

It's terrifying, but there is some safe harbor of concerns for all their competitors. Rodri is coming off an ACL injury and has already had a setback. There isn't really another defensive midfielder to be found. They could still be got at in transition, which was last season's check engine light. There really isn't anyone to fill in for Haaland if he gets hurt again.

If a club that's won six of the last eight titles can go under the radar, it feels like we've all let City do so in the same fashion as hoping the teenage girls can tiptoe around the axe murderer in the slasher film. Keep quiet and maybe they'll forget. Thing is, they probably won't, and we're all gonna lose a limb.

Arsenal

Perhaps most have gotten so tired of declaring every season Arsenal's year that they've stopped right at the point where it really might be. Arsenal's main problem last season was that they were so intent on slowing games down to control them that they really didn't create enough chances. While most Gunners lost their mud over the lack of a true #9, they didn't provide enough chances that a #9 would have finished anyway. This was only exacerbated by the long absences of both Saka and Ødergaard. Greater health from those two might be enough of a boost on its own to close the gap to the top.

But Arsenal aren't merely counting on that, as they seem intent on varying up the ways they can create and score. Viktor Gyokeres is the battering ram center forward who can contribute just enough around the rest of the field that they just haven't had. Noni Madueke is more varied than Martinelli on the left. Shifting Havertz deeper provides more nous there, or at least as an option off the bench. Martin Zubimendi is around to cycle the ball and shield a little more dynamically than Thomas Partey did. Declan Rice will essentially be relieved of any defensive responsibility most days. This is far more than their usual, "Saka will figure something out." plan of attack.

Will that be enough to overcome just how tightly wound the whole club is? Ehhh.....One still gets the impression that if one thing goes wrong, Mikel Arteta has a way of letting it snowball while screaming that no one put in the paper that anything's wrong or that he's upset. There really is no excuse for them this time. But no club is better at finding an excuse than this one.

Liverpool

There's been some shock that the champions have undergone this big of a facelift, but a good portion of it was enforced. Luis Diaz made it clear he wanted one more big contract that Liverpool just weren't going to give him. Darwin Nunez just didn't work. They also had another forward die in a car crash. Any club getting the opportunity to acquire Florian Wirtz can't pass up the opportunity. With Trent Alexander-Arnold fucking off to greater sunshine and greater food and greater money for some unknown reason, Liverpool needed to greatly alter how they were going to create chances.

Is it too much? Maybe. Perhaps Wirtz is go gifted that he can just force enough goals for himself and others while they work out the kinks early in the season to have Liverpool on top or right off the shoulder when they really start to hum (he really is that good). Or maybe it just looks wonky for a bit and there's too much ground to make up when the engine starts purring.

There certainly are issues. With Frimpong and Kerkez the kind of fullbacks who love to William Wallace up the field consistently, the defense could get exposed. As good as Ryan Gravenberch was last season as the deepest midfielder, "defensive shield" doesn't really appear on his business card.

There's also the question of balance up front, especially if Alexander Isak does finally arrive. People around the club have said Hugo Ekitike can play on the left, but that sounds like something they're just saying, because he hasn't really in the past. Liverpool are aiming to play enough games to keep both Ekitike and Isak happy, but that's easier in theory than in practice.

There's also the possibility that once Wirtz and Salah come to terms with each other, and Isak beds in, they might just score four every game and the other problems don't matter. Either way, Liverpool might be the league's showtime, mostly in the good way but sometimes in the bad way, too (for me). Don't miss it.