I Still Maintain That Krusty Is Coming (Free)

The Cubs are just pulling a Seabiscuit...right?

I'm guessing most of you haven't seen Seabiscuit, and less have probably read the book (I've done both. The Felses were a horse racing family, which is a big reason we got this way). Anyway, the middle of the film is set up around the match race with War Admiral. The strategy for Seabiscuit in that race (spoiler?) was to beat War Admiral to the first turn, but then cede the lead ever so slightly on the backstretch, before taking off around the turn and in the final stretch.

That's what the Cubs are doing, right?

They're just giving the Brewers a glimpse of the lead so they'll relax, having to work harder for it than they would have liked, and stirring themselves into a kick after getting to look the competition in the eye. They need the inspiration...right?

Certainly, that's not how greater Cubdom feels today, after getting clubbed by a punchless Royals team as the Cubs once again tried to make Fetch happen, i.e. thinking Ben Brown's two pitches are going to navigate a lineup more than once:

So yeah, it's a little rocky at the moment. I'm sure some of uneasiness also stems from just about no one thinking Jed Hoyer is a steady hand in choppy waters.

We can focus on that aspect closer to the deadline. First, it might be helpful to try and get a handle on which team the Cubs are. The 100-win pace team they were in the first two months? Or the 88-win pace team they've been the last six weeks? As always, the answer is probably in the middle, even if shooting for 88 wins has been this team's ethos for the past three seasons.

Funny enough, even with the injuries and the rotating cast that have filled in the back of the rotation since June 1st, the starters have been better in the last six weeks than they were in the first two months (4.04 ERA through May 31, 3.79 since). The pen has been worse (3.63, 4.02), thanks to some Genesis Cabrera and Porter Hodge Three Mile Islands, as well as Brad Keller backing up. So there's some of the explanation for the difference.

What about the offense? For the season's first two months, the Cubs averaged 5.7 runs. Since? 4.5. Might be getting to the heart of it here. The biggest reason for the drop in runs is that the Cubs on-base has fallen off a cliff. .335 as a team until June 1, and .309 since. The Cubs have slugged the exact same .447 in both stretches, but that will result in less runs when less guys are on base for it.

The culprits aren't hard to find. Ian Happ's OBP has cratered 50 points from before June 1 until after. Seiya Suzuki's 45 points. Carson Kelly's 50 points. Even Kyle Tucker isn't immune, seeing a 25-point drop.

Some of it is a lack of walks. Kelly's walk-rate has nearly been cut in half since June 1st. Suzuki by a third. But that's not all of it.

The team-wide BABIP before June 1st was .298. Since, it's been .269, fourth-worst in the league (funny enough, the Dodgers and Mets have had the same BABIP problem since June 1). That's happened even though the Cubs have the best team barrel-rate since June 1.

That BABIP-rate will rise again, at least for some slice of time. Figuring out which hitters are the spring version and which are the summer version is a slightly harder task.

Suzuki has certainly changed his approach for this season, selling out a little more to pull for power. But a sub-7.0% walk-rate is a real departure for him, and that will bounce back. Kelly probably isn't going to get back to a 17% walk-rate, and his 9 percent rate the last six weeks is probably where he's at. Happ's power may be gone, but he's also not going to ride out a .194 BABIP the rest of the season either. It'll rebound, if only to make him useful as far as getting on base again, rather than being an actual weapon.

Sequencing has been an issue, too. The Cubs hit .296 with runners in scoring position before June. It's been .232 since. They were slugging .503 in that spot before June. It's .379 since. For the rest of the season, those marks will probably settle in between those poles.

Is the Cubs offense the doomsday device for the season's first eight weeks? Probably not. But it's also better than the last six, and even that one has been a top-half MLB offense.

Another question is will any market correction from the rotation cancel out the offense's rebound, should the latter occur? We've been over Shota Imanaga's magic tricks, and the longevity of both Matthew Boyd and Cade Horton is hanging over everything. That's what the deadline will be about.

The lack of a difference maker for the rotation available via trade could be crucial. The Cubs could boost the lineup to assure that rebound, and that might be more available to do via trade than anything for the starters. The offense will get better, but without aid the rotation will probably get worse.

So are the Cubs the 88-win team or the 98-win one? It probably shades closer to the former. That's enough for a playoff spot. Is it enough to not get kneecapped by the Brewers again for the division?

As a lot have said (mainly me) the past couple years, if the Cubs try to play like the Brewers in here, they'll lose to them out there. They need to play like the Cubs everywhere.