CHSN Makes Its Debut, Jed Hoyer Is A Toad

Sector 1901 - CHSN Takes The Stage

We finally got...well actually, most people didn't get a look at CHSN as it finally came online last night. Well actually, not online, because it doesn't have a streaming outlet yet. It probably will before opening night, but we're not there yet. So only those of us who have a digital antenna, for reasons we can neither remember or identify, or DirectTV got a glimpse of the future of Chicago sports broadcasting.

There isn't much to be said about the game itself, as the Hawks got their teeth kicked in. So we'll focus on the presentation for now, and maybe get to the game later. Or maybe not, for our own sanity.

• My god, the difference between Rick Ball and Chris Vosters...I mean I thought I knew it would be massive but even that doesn't really describe it. It sounds like a truly professional, hockey broadcast. You don't miss a thing. This might be the best the Hawks have had in the booth since in-his-prime Pat Foley, which was some 20 years ago or more.
• I really liked how unobtrusive the scorebug is. In fact, it was so unobtrusive that I didn't even notice it until five or six minutes in. The goal graphic also wasn't overdone, another right step.
• Didn't get a look at any intermission show, which is fine, as we're all going to skip over that most nights anyway.
• The other graphics just looked like updated versions of what we saw on NBCSN, which was expected. At least it looked like they'd put a little time into it.
• Adam Amin's hype video line, "In Chicago we're proud of our teams." Citation needed.
• I would have thought an entity like CHSN would have tried to steer clear of making their logo look like the Fire's, but I'm no marketing pro. If that's the first connotation people get though, doesn't exactly scream, "Excellence" in any field.

A pretty solid rollout for a channel that's clearly going to evolve as it goes. As Hawks fans, we'll just be delighted to have Ball and a rejuvenated Darren Pang on the call most nights, even if they're calling dreck.

As for said dreck, the talk will be about Korchinski's two turnovers that will be constantly cited when the Hawks send him to Rockford. As if the puck won't ever roll in the AHL. He's also the only d-man the Hawks have anywhere that can hit a teammate's type while on the move behind his own net, a key aspect in the fast way Luke Richardson, supposedly, wants the Hawks to play. We're not having this talk right now.

As for other hockey news, these things never actually end in a trade, but if Jeremy Swayman is truly out there to be had thanks to the Bruins completely cocking up his contract negotiations, Kyle needs to be on the phone. Yes, he has two goalies signed for the next two seasons, but circumstances change and one has to be ready to adjust on the fly.

The Hawks don't have any long-term answers in goal, at least not one they can prove. Swayman's numbers are certainly somewhat buffeted by the Bruins ace defensive system, and also he's never taken on a full starter's load. But the latter isn't really an issue anymore, as teams don't run their starters more than 55 games. Swayman is only 25 and has run a .919 SV% in parts of four seasons. And Swayman produced 24 goals-saved above expected two seasons ago and 18 last year. So he wasn't totally a product of the Bruins system.

In addition, Kyle Davidson has amassed this prized pipeline in part to pull off a deal like this. In the past two years only Connor Hellebuyck and Swayman's former teammate Linus Ullmark has put up a better save-percentage. There won't be a better goaltending candidate to become available, if Swayman truly is, for the Hawks to pry loose. There are no guarantees with Drew Commesso. At some point, Davidson has got to pony up for a far surer thing in any position long-term.

There's no better position to shore up long-term than in the crease, after all.

Between G-Man and Nisei - Jed Hoyer Is A Toad

It truly is not my intention to keep harping on how the Cubs ownership and GM Jed Hoyer are only ever going to aim for an 84-and-pray model for the team. And yet they keep providing fodder to go nuclear, insulting their fans who continue to pack the park and make everyone rich.

I certainly am not the first to put Jedward on blast about his comments from yesterday, but that doesn't mean I don't want in the pool. Let's get the whole quote out of the way so we know what we're dealing with:

I'm not even sure where to start with this mountainous pile of horseshit, but I'll try. The idea that most of the 5+ WAR players this year were "over-performing" is Jed simply hiding behind how the projections work. They kind of always skew low, and even that argument is wholly flawed. Let's look at it, shall we?

(all the following from Fangraphs)

Aaron Judge - 11.2 WAR: No projection system is going to spit out that a player is going to end up with such a historic season, but this was Judge's second 11-WAR season (christ), his fifth 5+ WAR season in seven full seasons (we're never counting 2020). The only reason this isn't six of seven is his injury problems last year and in 2019.

Bobby Witt Jr. - 10.4 WAR: Witt only had two seasons of experience before this one, which he totaled 2.3 and 5.8 WAR seasons. One might not have seen this unholy campaign, but a 5+ WAR season was hardly out of the blue either. Most projections before the year had him pegged 4.5-5, and while 10 WAR was amazing, being a 5+ WAR player was always on the cards.

Shohei Ohtani - 9.1 WAR: Do we even need to do this?

Juan Soto - 8.1 WAR: This was Soto's second straight 5+ WAR season, third in four, and fourth in six full seasons in the majors. Every projection had him above a 5+ WAR player. Tends to happen when you're the best hitter of a generation.

Gunnar Henderson - 8.0 WAR: Henderson's second full-season, and his rookie year saw 4.7 WAR. Projections had him from 4.5-5.5 WAR, so even if eight was a spike, being over five was hardly a shock.

Francisco Lindor - 7.8 WAR: We went over this yesterday, but to flush it out this was Lindor's third-straight 5+ WAR season, would have been the fourth-straight had he been fully healthy in 2021, and the seventh out of his eight full seasons played. When Lindor has played a full slate, he's that player.

Jose Ramirez - 6.5 WAR: 2024 was Ramirez's third 5+ WAR season in the last four seasons, and sixth of his eight full seasons. Every projection save one on FanGraphs had him slotted at 5 WAR or over.

William Contreras - 5.4 WAR: The younger Contreras has now piled up two-straight 5+ WAR seasons, which are the only two in which he's played more than 100 games. He's 26, so he's in his prime, and this is probably who he is. He did outrun what the projections were, but those projections only had one season of full-time play to work with.

Jackson Merrill - 5.3 WAR: Rookie season, while learning a new position on the fly. If anyone came from the heavens to be a top tier player, this is one. But we also don't know what he's going to be. Considering he's only 21, it's kind of scary.

Yordan Alvarez - 5.3 WAR: This was Alvarez's second 5+ WAR season in the past three, with the middle one falling below the cut due to ill-health (Alvarez only played 114 games). Most projections had him right between 5.0-5.5 WAR, so he provided the exact cornerstone production that was predicted.

Bryce Harper - 5.2 WAR: Surprisingly, this was only Harper's third 5+ WAR season out of 12 in the bigs. Health and volatility had his projections below 5.0 as well.

So out of these players that Jed said were mostly surprises, only rookie Jackson Merrill and Harper are ones wildly outperforming. And Harper is a two-time MVP. Yes, a team can't bank on the doomsday-gun seasons that Judge or Witt or Ohtani had...but two of those three have done it before.

It's just garbage. Jed expects fans to swallow the tripe that if the Cubs keep collecting fine-to-good players, someone might spike simply because Jed really wants them to. That's not how you build a surefire winning team. The players above and those of their ilk not on playoff teams gives a team a higher baseline, which Hoyer and the Cubs just don't seem to have an interest in getting to. Even if those players have their normal baseline seasons, it's better than anything any Cub is likely to put up.

The positive thing is that these players are just about split between those who were developed by the team they're still on and those that were acquired. Maybe the Cubs can develop one, but that's an itchy bet. And fuck, one of them is coming on the market this winter! But Hoyer is already prepping the ground for having worse players who might, for one season or even just a couple months, BABIP their way into Soto like production, instead of jut paying for it year after year.

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