Lost In America - Daily World Cup Newsletter: The Final Preview

We've come to the end. My beautiful friend.

Spain vs. Argentina (Sunday, 3pm ET)

So here we are. The World Cup final dressed up as La Finalissima, the usual match between the Euros and Copa America champion that they had to cancel back in March thanks to a fuckwit in charge dropping bombs on Iran for reasons he can't remember and probably couldn't ever identify in the first place. It's hard to question these being the two world powers when they each hold their continental belt. Which makes it a pretty damn worthy World Cup final. There's also the matter of Argentina being defending champs and trying to be the first team to retain the gold ice cream cone in 64 years. Spain claiming a second star would leave England as the only country to win it just once, which is pretty damn funny.

There's some additional symmetry in that both teams are almost certainly greater than the sum of their parts. In all honesty, if you were to count the for sure, lock of the week world class players in both starting lineups, how many would you get? Messi, Yamal, and Rodri for sure. Julian Alvarez and Latauro Martinez might have claims, but only one of them starts at a time, usually. Pedri maybe, but he's not even likely to start. France sported that many in their starting lineup on their own. England came close.

That doesn't mean these are teams of bums and punters being dragged by the dick by a couple of superstars. No, where they don't have truly world class players, each team has a raft of very good/bordering on great players. More importantly, they all fit together, and each executes their plan to the hilt.

Spain's plan is going to look awfully familiar, because it's almost certainly going to look a lot like England's in the semis. They're going to keep the ball a lot, as much to nullify Argentina's threat as to provide their own. They will press quickly and aggressively when they lose it to cut off any passing lanes up to Messi and Alvarez.

Where they will try to improve on England's efforts is how often they go direct and run at Argentina's backline. The Albiceleste really didn't want any part of Anthony Gordon, or Morgan Rogers, or Jude Bellingham taking the ball right at them, making it all the more infuriating that England didn't try it more often. Getting Yamal isolated against Tagliafiaco won't be very low on the Spain priority list, and the very thought of it is probably giving Lionel Scaloni the shakes as we speak. This is where Spain having a fully operational Nico Williams on the other side would be truly devastating. But hey, we were told long ago you don't go to battle with the army you wish you had.

Add to that Dani Olmo's ability to appear like a phantom in any hole of a defense, and the lack of mobility the Argentine midfield has exhibited at times, and it's not hard to see where Spain are going to puncture some holes in the Argentinian rearguard. The only question is how bothered they are about creating a host of chances, and how many of the ones they do create do they finish off. The answer to the first question throughout the tournament has been, "not all that arsed." The answer to the second has been "quite efficiently."

Defensively, Spain's plan won't look all that different than what they did to France. Set up in a narrow 4-1-4-1, with Rodri behind the midfield line, cutting off anything through the middle, and daring Argentina to beat them out wide. Except Argentina are even less equipped to win on the wings than France were, though France didn't even really bother to try until it was too late. Argentina just don't play with wingers. They'll try to get their fullbacks forward to compensate, but the threat of Yamal in space on the counter is going to lower the gung-ho level of that activity.

It wouldn't be surprising to see Messi drift out wide to the right to get the ball more often, because Spain just aren't going to let him have it in his office in the middle of the field, just behind the forward line. But this isn't Messi 2016, and he isn't really built to skin a fullback consistently anymore. Sure, he can hurt you out wide still, if you do as England did, and just let him fire in crosses with no one around him for miles. Spain aren't going to do that. Cucurella's activity level assures that there won't be as much room out wide, though he's a candidate to get himself booked early with some overexuberant tackling.

Read all that, and it sure sounds like Spain should win this. Well, they should. But nothing about Spain's game suggests that they'll be three or four goals clear come the 75th minute. Spain have looked the most lock-safe team in the tournament, but can anyone be trusted to hold out Argentina right now if they're within a goal with 10 minutes to go? Spain are not nearly as likely to shit a chicken in that spot as Egypt and England did, but one can't be sure until they're actually put in that spot.

Even keeping that in mind, this seems like a Waterloo for Argentina. Spain have fresh memories of being winners of a major tournament, so the moment isn't going to be too big for them. They just blunted a scarier attack than Argentina has, one that is scarier by some distance (though France's manager usually being a bewildered doofus played into that). Teams that wanted to, when they wanted to, have gotten at Argentina's defense in a way that simply no one has against Spain.

With Yamal still kind of below his best, Spain might not have the "magic man" that Argentina do. At least not in attack. Rodri was pretty magic against France in stuffing all their attacking thoughts into a locker, though. Outside of the madness of the last few minutes, Spain are just better in attack and defense.

But logic hasn't really applied to Argentina yet.