Mammoth Likes Rabbit Stew, But Not Saves

Utah is in the pits.

Of the teams that are the new hotness, trying to pick out which one would be a serious Cup contender in the next couple years was tricky. Montreal still feels short. Ottawa, same thing. Anaheim is a year away at least from even knowing what they are. Is New Jersey even in that category anymore? Even if they are, it's a real question if they can get through a stretch of the playoffs that turns into catch-as-catch-can wrestling.

While it might not have been this season, October unveiled the Utah Mammoth as just as likely as any of them. They sported three lines worth of scorers. It showed off three pairings they could play without blushing, making them unique in the West. They were fun, they had a genuine home-ice advantage with a fervent atmosphere. An 8-2-0 start, combined with everyone behind Colorado starting the season with a wine hangover, gave the Mammoth a "Why not them?" feel.

Well, we'll tell you why not them. The answer to that question has come in the month since, where Utah is 4-8-3 and dropped out of the playoff picture altogether. They're only one point back of the wildcards, but have played more games than anyone. It's hardly unsalvageable, but with the compressed schedule and games piling on top of each other, ruts get deeper than they might normally. The next depressing effort is only a day or two away, and there's little time to take a breath. In an Olympic year, it doesn't take long to feel like Jon Snow under the corpses.

So how did Utah splat on the mat throughout November? It isn't hard to find, as the answer is the puddle of late night munchie puke in the crease. Karel Vejmelka has a .885 SV%. His backup, Vitek Vanacek, has a .869. Vejmelka was pulled last night in San Jose after giving up three in the 1st period, as the Mammoth toddled down the road to a 6-3 reverse.

Because Utah's underlying numbers, aside from the goalies, look great. They're top five in both Corsi and expected goals. They're one of the best defensive teams in the league, in terms of both attempts and chances they give up. This is a team that uses its surplus of speed at forward to not even have to give up shots from the point. Their lack of droolers on defense make their crease a little more welcoming to opponents, but they're hardly a keg party around their own net, either.

Utah might have erred in trusting Vejmelka with what should have been a leap season. This was a guy who only cracked "NHL average" in his age-28 season, and is obviously having this full body dry-heave at 29. There wasn't much of a track record of acceptable play in his career, even if a lot of it was behind some pretty shoddy Arizona teams. It was a lot to trust on the shoulders of a goalie who had one season of even ok play.

However, the goaltending isn't the only issue. For a team loaded with forwards that can play, they still only rank 18th in goals per game. A lot of that blame can be laid at the feet of the league's worst power play. Not only does the man-advantage only click at 13.2 percent, but it produces the third-worst xG in the league while also having the worst shooting-percentage on the power play, too. Nothing is going right there.

The major problem there is the second unit, which hasn't produced a solitary goal all season. It's a big drop-off from last year's 10th-ranked unit, but last year's power play had a lot of air in it. It still ranked near the bottom of the league in xG, but shot just a shade under 20 percent. With that correcting to below 9 percent this term, this sludge is what you get. It might be worth asking if Mikhail Sergachev is really a PP1 QB. Certainly with Sean Durzi and John Marino on the roster, there are other options to try.

The Mammoth can try to comfort themselves with the amount of time on the schedule, but we all know that goes by faster than anyone expects. The stratified nature of the Central isn't going to help the cause. Colorado, Dallas, and Minnesota have a six-point buffer on the rest of the division. Even at this still early point in the season, that's a massive gap. Which leaves only the two wildcard spots, which a horde of wayward outfits are currently trying to hump. Utah can sit there and conclude that San Jose, Chicago, Seattle, maybe even Anaheim will fade. But not all of them will, and counting on handfuls of teams to just fall past you while ascending the mountain isn't a winning strategy.

As discussed whenever the Oilers come up, there aren't a lot of solutions outside Utah's arena to their goaltending problems. It's not as urgent for the Mammoth as it is for the Oilers, but a team doesn't get endless shots with a homemade core that they believe in. Utah hasn't been to the playoffs in a dog's age, and in a new home this is a chance to lock in a large fanbase. It's certainly time for them.

There's still time. But when a team isn't getting any saves, the sand tends to drip to the bottom half a whole lot quicker.