No Quarrel With You, Here Comes The Regular, Spurs Hit Their Low For The Week
Summing up the Hawks win over the Knights on Saturday night, setting up the Monday night contest with Carolina, and some Premier League thoughts from the weekend.
Sector 1901 - No Quarrel With You
Well, look at that, it's three of four points. It certainly feels better than losing all the time. Except that the Hawks are still kinda getting run over in these games the same way they were when they were getting smoked on the scoreboard. They've just gotten better goaltending from Arvid Soderblom and Petr Mrazek the past two games.
It's not that anyone would expect the Hawks to carry a full 60 minutes against most teams, if not all teams. They had a good first period against Vegas, where Vegas was clearly feeling the effects of trying skate with the Hurricanes the night before. But then they were smothered for the last 40 minutes, and just survived. Against the Preds, it was a good 40 minutes, and then trying to do the Alamo for the third protecting a one-goal lead.
If the Hawks season isn't going to be about the results, and that ship sailed long ago, then it would be nice to have a better process. But maybe the Hawks need to bank some points just to feel capable of improving the process. Let's go with that for now.
The Lukas Reichel debate is back. This is going to be a yearly thing, because he's signed for next year as well and it costs the Hawks nothing to see for another season if he can't carve out a bottom six role of some kind. This rears its head every time Reichel flashes that skill that made him a first-round pick, and everyone wonders why he can't score goals like that more often. The answer is because he's not good enough, otherwise he wouldn't be centering a third or fourth line for the second straight season on a woebegone team.
But let's focus on some positives with Reichel. His metrics are much better this season. He's getting more chances, he's getting better chances, and his possession game is much stronger, in terms of chances for and against. He's doing that with a drop in offensive zone starts as well.
The discussion of where he fits long-term, if he fits, will center on how the Hawks want to set up their future lineup (assuming they even have that plan). Say they want to do the conventional two scoring lines, a checking line, and then a 4th line. Does anyone think Reichel can develop the defensive chops to be on a checking line? He's pretty much proven he's not going to be on the top six of a good team by now (he can't even get on the top six of a bad one). Teams don't really assign fourth-line roles for the long haul, unless they're the Islanders.
Now, if the Hawks were to try something different, something like a "3+1" model, it's easier to see Reichel on a third, bum-slaying line. But the Hawks would have to be stocked with forwards to think about that. At the moment they just aren't, whatever your favorite prospect report says.
Reichel did play on a 3rd line on Saturday, essentially, as his combo with Dach and Foligno did get more time than the Hall-Donato-Maroon line. Seeing as how the season is shot, it might not hurt to take 10-15 games that are left and see if Reichel can fill out a defensive role. Jason Dickinson is already in his 30s. Is he going to be doing that when the Hawks play games that matter again? Match Reichel up against top sixes, tell him to check, if he scores he scores, and see what you've got. If it doesn't work, the Hawks aren't out anything.
It's a longshot, but it's the kind of experiment that the Hawks could perform to make this season useful at least as a case study.
No matter how routine it has become, it will never stop being exasperating watching this team let down by its muttonheaded veterans. I know there's some bullshit "code" or whatever, even if statistically it has never held up to any logic, but if there is some charge or momentum to be gleaned from a fight, why would any player engage in one when his team is up 3-1? That didn't stop Pat Maroon. For the second straight game he got into a fight when the Hawks were leading. The Knights promptly tied the game afterwards. If players believe there is a pick-me-up from fighting, then Maroon greatly helped Vegas back into a game they had showed little interest in before.
Then he went after Zac Whitecloud in the 3rd period after a clean but hard hit on Donato. Ok, granted, Maroon didn't do much, and it was a soft call. But with the Hawks leading late in the 3rd, why even give the refs a decision to make? Skate by, say something, and get on with it. Putting your team down a man late while protecting a lead isn't leadership. Considering how he's playing this year, keeping Whitecloud on the ice is a good idea.
Contrast that with Vegas. Alex Vlasic makes a stupid hit, gets a boarding call, and the Knights promptly score on the power play and tie the game. That's how to make an opponent pay.
Let's find a positive point after a win though. And all positives start with Connor Bedard. The past two games, the menace he had started the season with has returned, after far too long of a sojourn looking for confidence and wallowing in the muck of ennui. Setting up Seth Jones for the Hawks 4th goal, look at how quickly he pulls this puck off the boards on his backhand while spinning to get facing the middle of the ice again. Most players have to secure this puck first before trying to get turned and look for a pass.
These kinds of plays were missing for the middle two months of the season. Given where Bedard is at right now, the world class plays have to happen in these crevices and snippets of time. Most players can't make something of this tiny opening.
Sorensen remembered what being at home means. It has felt like Sorensen, much like his predecessor, forgot that he had the last change at home since he took over. We'd see Bedard for defensive draws or out against other top lines. On Saturday, Sorensen was forcing Bedard out against the Knights' third line as much as he could. Not that it worked all that well, as Bedard and Nazar carried metrics in the 30s. But it's a start, at least.
All right, on to Carolina...
Carolina Hurricanes Lineup
Svechnikov - Aho - Blake
Roslovic - Drury - Necas
Martinook - Staal - Jarvis
Robinson - Kotkaniemi - Jaaksa
Slavin - Burns
Orlov - Chatfield
Gostisbehere - Walker
Kochetkov/Andersen
What You Need To Know: There probably isn't much that you don't already know, because this is the same Hurricanes act we've seen for the past 10 seasons, or at last that's how it feels. Their metrics are off the charts, they don't really have a top line star but about 16 second-liners, the defense is really good, they still think Brent Burns isn't a liability, the goaltending sucks, and they'll probably bite it in the 2nd round/conference final when their goalies give out and/or they get the opposing goalie into an unbeatable rhythm thanks to their spray-n-pray offensive method. Sound about right?
The Canes may have thought they were doing something new when they either chose not to trade Martin Necas over the summer, or failed to find a partner for the wantaway forward, and then watched him start the season on a 120+ point pace for the first two months. He's cooled off, given that everyone around him couldn't keep shooting over 10 percent. Nor he at a 25 percent clip like he was in October. But he's still on the top line, still has 51 points, which is a nice thing to have by accident.
Sebastian Aho is still around a point per game, and then there's the hive of hyperactive forecheckers and skaters. Everyone knows the drill here. The Canes will dump the puck in over and over and harass defenders to the point of retirement until they get the turnovers and mistakes they need, recycle to the point for a shot and then ruckus around the net. If they get a breakdown in the neutral zone, there's mroe than enough speed here to counter quickly and get open looks on the rush. It's just not their first choice.
Dmitri Orlov and Sean Walker are some of the best puck-movers that are rarely talked about. Jaccob Slavin is still capable of cleaning up all of Burns's methods. Ghost Bear has reveled in only being asked to bum-slay on the third pairing. None of these defenders are asked to carry or even pass the puck out of their own zone all that much. Rod Brind'Amour is more than happy for them to fling it to open space and let their superior speed at forward try and chase it down.
But once again, the Canes are trying to outsmart everyone in net, and it once again likely won't work. Shock of shocks, Andersen was hurt all year until a couple days ago. Pyotr Kochetkov has taken most of the starts in his absence, and been barely passable. If a team is trusting Andersen to take them where they want to go in the spring, it's a team destined for ruin. Copying the Leafs is rarely a winning plan.
Lucky for the Canes this year, they're unlikely to have to deal with the Rangers and more specifically Igor Shesterkin, who has rocked them to sleep twice in the last three years. The Devils seemed determined to give away the second seed in the Metro, though there's little hope of catching the Caps. The Caps are getting the goaltending the Canes never do, and Jacob Markstrom can be spicy too when he wants to be. Are the Canes really going to go through two really good goalies just to get to the Panthers, who dogwalked them last June?
Anyway, in regards tonight, this couldn't be much worse of a matchup for the Hawks. They really don't want to have to dump the puck in all night and try to get it back. They don't have the forwards to win it back enough. And their defense can't get a step on any of these Canes forwards to make a pass out of the zone. But we're in the doldrums of the season now. Goofy things happen. Look at Vegas on Saturday.
Let England Shake - Tottenham Are The White Sox
-If this were American sports, Tottenham supporters could probably console themselves by calling this a rebuilding season, and at least take comfort in how much time young players were getting that might pay off in the seasons to come. Archie Gray, Djed Spence, Lucas Bergvall, Pape Sarr are all getting serious looks now to join the already established Mickey Van de Ven, Kulusevski, Destiny Udogie, Brennan Johnson in the under-25 brigade. Sure, their league campaign was shot, but all this experience would mean something, right?
Yeah well, can't do that when there's relegation lurking beneath everything. And while they're eight points above the cut-line, they can't really keep losing matches at this pace and continue to laugh off the possibility.
Spurs' problems obviously go above the manager. Their problem is that they definitely like to read their name in the headlines of stories about chasing truly world-class players. They just never get them. They wanted both Luis Diaz and Cody Gakpo. Liverpool got them both. They wanted that manager, too. He told them to do one. They wanted Leandro Trossard. Arsenal got him. They held onto Harry Kane until last season started, not allowing them enough time to spend that money. Dominic Solanke has actually been a pretty good player, but pretty good is what Tottenham have too much of. They need world class.
People around here know what it's like to have a team constantly tell their fans about almost getting a difference-maker. It's the team on the Southside that's won a single playoff game in 20 years. The teams Spurs like to pretend they run with consistently add world class talent. Where's Tottenham's Declan Rice or Alexis Mac Allister or Cole Palmer (not that Chelsea's Hurricanes-like approach to transfers needs to be copied)? Shop at the off-brand market, you'll get an off-brand team.
-I'm not alone in taking some great pleasure in the uproar of a supposed Manchester United revival simply because Liverpool and Arsenal forgot how to finish for an afternoon (this is where Arsenal supporters would bemoan, "If only it was one afternoon!"). Needing late goals to beat what might go down as the worst Premier League team in history AT HOME isn't much of an accomplishment either.
Until score-effects kicked in, it was the same fear with Ruben Amorim that it's always been since he took over. Brighton had no problem waltzing into The Theater Of Dreams and having more possession, more shots, more chances, more goals. It was the third game in four in the league that United surrendered over 2.0 xG, except Brighton finished off their chances. Southampton would have made it four in a row, except they're, y'know. Southampton.
No judgements can be made until Amorim can overhaul the squad in the fashion he likes. Except that's trickier these days with PSR. It's not a great sign that United is just ceding control of a match to the likes of Brighton. For lots of teams, defending well and then countering can take them farther than they've been. But it doesn't take a team to the penthouse of European football.
Gonna take a lot of work there, Rubes. In the meantime, these headlines are giving us life.
-Don't worry, in the moment I had to scrape myself off the ceiling after Darwin Nunez's first of two injury time goals away to Brentford. Or at least I would have, if Peacock hadn't crashed just as his shot was hitting the net, blunting the moment somewhat. It came back on as he was celebrating his second. Thanks, assholes. I'm not here to deflate that excitement.
It was about a similar time last year when Nunez netted another injury time winner, at Forest, that my fellow Reds and I lost our senses and declared it "football magic" and indicative of some sort of higher force at work, propelling Liverpool toward the title. We know how that went.
The difference this time is that last season Liverpool had made a habit of overcoming deficits and scoring late winners to get themselves out of jail. Whereas this season, the rescue act has been something of an outlier. They've usually taken care of business much earlier (though the last time they did was a demolition of West Ham right after Christmas. So you know, warning light, kinda).
If there's one lesson to be drawn, it's that Arne Slot has gotten a little cute with starting Luis Diaz as a central forward. It's never been his position, and the fact that he came up with a hat trick against Leverkusen the first time Slot tried it has probably convinced the manager of things that aren't there.
It's fine against a team that Liverpool are going to full-out press and are going to try to play through them so the Reds can press heavily. Diaz is good at that. Or an opponent they sense they will get a lot of counters against. Or against teams that are just a mess, like West Ham or Spurs.
Against teams with a deep and even reasonably organized defense, it doesn't work. Defenders don't follow him when he drops deep, meaning it's just a crowded midfield. He doesn't have the instincts to get on the end of stuff from a striker's perspective. He doesn't occupy defenders in the box. Nor should he, as it's not his position.
Diaz had nine touches in the box in 65 minutes. Nunez had seven in 25. Brentford's Wissa matched Diaz for touches in the opposing box with Brentford having half the possession that Liverpool did.
Nunez is hardly perfect. Jota is always hurt. But they are actual strikers. Slot might be better off seeing what he can do with both for the next little while. Seeing as how it's their natural position and all.
