Now That The Dust Has Settled, There's More Dust

Assessing the Hawks and the NHL after the deadline, whatever thoughts out of this weekend that matter, if any, and some Fire thoughts.

Sector 1901 - After The Deadline

Going to eschew, at least mostly, the normal game write-ups for a post-deadline assessment of the Hawks and some things around the NHL. Whatever we need to know from the Hawks consecutive trips to OT against Utah and Nashville, we'll cram in here somewhere. And there's nothing we need to know.

-So it turned out the Hawks didn't move Ryan Donato, which was just about the only drama of the deadline for them. Their story is that they didn't receive an offer worthy of their valuation for him, which either means their phone was unplugged or they have the most ridiculous valuation of Donato than can possibly be fathomed.

When Yanni Gourde is going for a first-round pick, certainly some team was dangling at least a second for Donato, if not more. Especially as contenders treat draft picks as nothing more than disposable income, which we'll get to.

Sure, the Hawks should have enough firsts and seconds and thirds already to produce enough of a core to be a good team sometime in the future. They keep stressing that, which means the keeping of Donato is that strange. Because he doesn't really affect the future. They keep telling their fans they're years and years away, and then keep a player for the interim?

The rumor is that the Hawks have a three-year deal on the table for Donato, and if I had to guess it's in the $4M range. With a rising cap, that's still a little high, but I suppose it isn't a mortal sin. Again, as I stressed last week, Donato is not going to put up 25 goals again. He's not going to shoot 16 percent again, or if he does it can't be something a team could bank on. When the Hawks finally start putting real talent together, he's not going to be on the power play, limiting his goal-scoring further. He's a. 15-20 goal. guy, max.

I'm not sure he has that much use as a third-liner, because he's not a great defensive player. The Hawks have to pay some vets to take those harder shifts, though. Except they're already paying Ilya Mikheyev to do that. And Jason Dickinson. And Nick Foligno. And honestly, Tyler Bertuzzi, because he's proven to not be a top-six player. Thanks to their coaches, they're also paying Teuvo Teravainen to do that, too.

Remove Teravainen and Bertuzzi from that, and the Hawks will still be paying around $16 million for third line vets next season. They have the space, but it doesn't speak to a good valuation of what matters when it comes time for them to pay for what matters.

That said, after next season, Dickinson, Mikheyev, and Foligno all come off the books, and maybe the Hawks see Donato taking that psuedo-captain on the third-line role at that time (Bedard will have the "C" by then). Which...ok, fine. Whatever. I'd like to think Dickinson would still have use after 2026, but he might be sick of this shit by then, prized at next year's deadline, etc.

It's not a crime to keep Donato around, but if it impacts the Hawks getting an actual top six player or two this summer, then it becomes one. The last thing anyone wants to hear in July after the Hawks come up empty on finding real, long-term talent is that they think Donato can fill that role. That's loser shit.

-Which is kind of the same feeling about picking up Shea Weber's contract. We know this is transactional and about getting to the floor next year. It's only for next year, but it would be frustrating if that was their move to get to the floor instead of signing difference-makers. Also, don't buy the shit about the Hawks liking the d-man they got in the Weber deal. He's already 25, they know what he is, and the blue line isn't a spot where they need to look for more players.

-As far as Joe Veleno, whatever. I am not going to believe the Hawks have found something another team couldn't see until they prove they can do it just once. He was an ok-plug in Detroit on a woeful metrics-team. I wouldn't expect much else here.

-Looking around the league, what went down in Toronto could impact the Hawks if they discover their balls by the end of June. It goes two directions. One, if the Leafs were after Mikko Rantanen and were willing to swap Mitch Marner out for him, that means they were probably willing to exceed what the Stars gave Rantanen for an extension. Because of Texas's no income tax, there's no way Rantanen was taking the same money in tax-heavy Ontario.

Which probably means Marner, and his agent more specifically, now have a new number for what Marner is going to require to put pen to paper. It probably starts with $14M, and if the Leafs were really willing to go there for Marner, they already would have. Marner wants to stay in Toronto, but he wants to be paid the most amount of money to do so, and the Hawks should have their target number if they're interested.

Along with that, Matthew Knies's name was also mentioned in those Rantanen talks. Knies is RFA this summer, and the Leafs should have enough room, just, to give Marner a raise and Knies a big raise. But maybe not, and he could be an offer-sheet candidate. Including him the Rantanen talks means the Leafs have already pictured a world without him, and certainly have their limits to what they want to pay him. Much like Marner, the Hawks would have to seriously overpay for him, but that shouldn't be a problem. Knies is exactly the type of big-bodied, talented winger that Bedard is screaming out for.

-Outside Chicago, I honestly don't know what Carolina is doing. They're a worse team than they were before trading Rantanen, and before they traded Martin Necas and Jack Drury to get him. Carolina has to be in total go-for-it mode, given their previous playoff dry-heaves. Even being unable to sign Rantanen long-term doesn't mean an assault on the summit this year isn't sacred. They may think their forward corps is young enough to be contenders for a while yet, but their blue line is not. The East is hardly containing a monster they can't beat, especially with Matthew Tkachuk ouchy, at least with a little luck. Prioritizing the value of Rantanen over a parade in June is the kind of bullshit you'd see in MLB.

-It is funny to see the Hawks make such a big deal about the amount of picks they have, and yet watch teams like Tampa, Dallas, Florida, and a few others toss out first and second rounders like a Vegas binge. Basically anything outside the top 1o picks, teams consider to be nothing more than lottery tickets. No one has any idea how to scout and develop consistently, and that must be true if teams like Dallas and Tampa that actually do those things consistently have decided to go ya-ha time.

Anyway, we've got a game to preview! Holy shit!

Colorado Avalanche Lineup

Lekonen - MacKinnon - Necas

Drouin - Nelson - Nichushkin

Kiviranta - Coyle - Colton

Kelly - Drury - O'Connor

Toews - Makar

Lindgren - Manson

Girard - Malinski

Blackhwood/Wedgewood

What You Need To Know: We'll get to the Hawks end of this in the "Player To Watch" segment, because it's the most interesting they've been in a minute. As for the Avalanche, this is a team that has kind of attempted to rebuild the plane while in the air. Ever since Nazem Kadri signed in Calgary after Colorado's Cup in 2022, the Avs have been pretty weak down the middle. They tried to solve it with Casey Mittelstadt last year, and that didn't take. Now, they may have even overdone it, trading for both Brock Nelson and Charlie Coyle, giving them a pretty solid #1-3 at center.

It is fair to wonder, however, if the Avs haven't gotten away from what made them special in the first place with all this work. This used to be a team that no one could catch, and that's why they won the Cup three years ago. With Nelson and Coyle, that's not a team getting faster. That's a team being built to grind away in the playoffs when Nathan MacKinnon isn't on the ice. Which, ok, fine. You do you.

Except...except it feels like the other teams in the West are souping up. The Oilers didn't come out of the West last year by playing suffer-hockey. Dallas is actually more of a rush team than they've ever been. In fact, they're the biggest rush team in the league, and that won't change all that much with the acquisition of former MacK running buddy Rantanen. Even Vegas gets up and goes more than they did. The Jets...well, kind of flexible but certainly not averse to hitting the gas.

The Avs path out of the division is almost certainly Dallas than Winnipeg. Have they prepped their team to play a game that is now antiquated? It's not like a team with MacKinnon and Makar can't find 5th gear when they need it. Can they enough?

Player To Watch - Artyom Levshunov

Well, they finally did it. The Hawks are going to give everyone a glimpse. It might be only that, just like when Korchinski was called up in December. We should just take what we can get.

Seeing how Levshunov is deployed will give everyone a better idea if the Hawks have any idea what they're doing, how they're going to develop not just Levshunov but the team to come, or whether they're just guessing. Not in terms of who is partner is or how many minutes he gets, but how they let him play.

While only having seen limited action involving Levshunov in Rockford, what's special about his game are his instincts, specifically at both blue lines. Levshunov jumps a lot of plays at the offensive line to keep possessions going, and he's aggressive at his own because he's so mobile. It's what could lead him to dominate play on both ends of the ice, cutting off the opponents' plays before they even start.

The Hawks need to let him play that game. If you see Levshunov, after getting his feet wet at least, backing off the lines and being conservative, that's pointless. If they just make noise about letting him "jump into the play," that's limited in scope, though he should do that, too.

Some day in the future, the Hawks should--repeats: should--have the likes of Vlasic, Levshunov, Korchinski, Rinzel, and even Kaiser (for now) jumping plays and shortening the ice at both lines. Do that, and that's how a team soups up the temperature and speed of a game. Which is what the Hawks say they want to do when they matter again.

Colorado is obviously a rough landing for Levshunov, but we won't be making any judgements about it. San Jose and Vancouver will be easier tests. Anyway, that's what to look for during whatever sample size the Hawks are prepared to give us with Levshunov.

I got a request to talk about the local 11. No, not that local 11, the Fire. They actually got their first win on the board Saturday, coming back from a goal down to win 3-1 in Dallas.

Not sure how much analysis I can provide yet, as the Fire have had some injury and suspension issues. What I will say is that the attacking troika of Brian Gutierrez, Hugo Cuypers, and Jonathan Bamba is worth the price of admission on their own. Right now, Gregg Berhalter's attacking tactics aren't too much more than finding ways to get Bamba isolated out wide against a fullback or in behind the defense, and it's more than enough. He's playing a lot of cutbacks to Gutierrez at the edge of the box for him to fire away, but the latter is quite talented at that.

Cuypers must feel like he got out of jail. He signed last season and then proceeded to have no service. Gutierrez had to be shifted out wide to accommodate a completely uncaring Xherdan Shaqiri to play the #10 role. Frank Klopas having no idea what he was doing didn't help.

Kellyn Acosta getting hurt could be an issue, as he's a big part of how the Fire want to progress the ball up the field quickly to these three. Hopefully it's not too serious.

Anyway, check them out when you can. It's entertaining for once.