Olympic Semifinals: Hope This Is What You Had In Mind, Cuz This Is What You're Getting

The Olympic hockey tournament, both of them, will end the way most everyone wanted.

The 2010 vibes are getting stronger with each passing round. Just as then, Canada squeaks by with some fortune in the last minute, and the US utterly destroys their opponent to set up the final that everyone was hoping for and expecting. The difference this time is that the US is a far better team than that one. Canada might not be. We'll get to that.

Canada 3 - 2 Finland

Once again, Canada greatly benefitted from a team just punting on the 2nd period instead of trying to put them away. I don't know if it's just utter fear of the Canadians, or far too much caution about the long change. or just some Euro mentality about hockey we don't see much of, but both the Czechs and Finns had Canada on their heels, and just declined to try and land another straight right.

Finland will truly curse themselves. They had a two-goal lead, they had the mojo after a shorthanded goal. Sitting back was always going to invite Canada to make it 2-1, so what was the harm in keeping pressure applied and see if they couldn't get another mistake or opening or Binnington boner (which admittedly have been in short supply this tournament)? Finland accomplished what Czechia did in the 1st period of their quarterfinal, which was terrorize any d-man on Canada not named Makar. Canada couldn't even get out of their zone for long stretches. With five minutes left in the 1st or thereabouts, they had three shots on goal. They only had eight in total for the opening frame.

If we were to take the maple leaf off the front of their jersey, maybe teams wouldn't hesitate as much to attack Doughty, Parayko, Harley, Theodore, and Sanheim as much as they seem to be, at least for a full 60 minutes. We know the US won't, which should have those clad in red awfully jittery. They just aren't that good with the puck under heavy pressure, at least not at this level. Doughty played less than 10 minutes, so even Cooper has come to see it.

While the fear for any US fan in the Gold Medal Game is a rash of stupid penalties (we'll get to that, too), it was Canada who fell behind when one of their resident morons in Sam Bennett had to fulfill his Dudley Boyz-like need to run over goalies. Canada is not without players they'll have to keep on a leash Sunday. That said, Bennett, eventually, gave Canada something they didn't have against Czechia, which was a line other than the top one that could do anything.

Jon Cooper's deployment of McDavid, MacKinnon, and Celebrini together has become something of a Rorschach test. You can see whatever you want. On the one hand, they produced two power play goals that Canada desperately needed, and they are a source of constant threat at evens. But it also is depriving the rest of the lineup of another center who can carry the mail, which their defense needs. Especially without Crosby, who I would very much doubt is going to play on Sunday. Though I wouldn't be shocked if he suits up and just sits on the bench for INSPIRATION.

Obviously, McDavid and MacKinnon can outscore any fault a team has, and that's probably the wager. If you're going to make such a bet, doing it on the greatest player of all-time is the way to do it. That doesn't mean it's the right thing to do, at least not this much.

-Canada was channeling the US aside from Bennett for most of the first 40 minutes. They seemed to think they could push and hit Finland right out of this game, but that's an antiquated notion. This isn't 2002 or 1997 anymore, where European teams are going to shy from contact. When Canada put that aside and just tried to play, they were far more dominant.

-Canada's other problem is that they were determined to walk the puck in, hitting those cross-seam passes or backdoor plays that came so easily in the group stage. Finland were on it, until they weren't at the end I suppose, but if Canada is going to insist on being cute in the offensive end against the US they'll be down more than a goal when the business end hits.

-They clearly wanted to go high on Saros, which makes sense given that he's probably not over 5-10, whatever the fuck he's listed at, but he had clearly read the scouting report and was standing up. But they got their equalizer that way when his two fatal flaws, being short and being small, came home to roost. He can get knocked around in his crease and he can't make up for it with a large frame that can be slightly out of position. He was just about in the right position for Theodore's blast, but not quite, and if he were 6-3, he makes the save. He isn't, so it hit his shoulder and went in.

USA 6 - 2 Slovakia

Much smoother sailing for the tournament's other heavyweight. Refreshingly, the US didn't take their win over Sweden as some sort of justification for the playbook they used for it. This was front foot, up-your-ass hockey that the Yanks should be playing. D-men carrying the puck and pushing the play, hitting stretch passes to streaking forwards, hitting the gas to a point that Slovakia simply couldn't match. They could have, and probably should have, been up three or four by the first intermission.

Unlike Canada, the US is threatening from multiple lines right now, with Jack Hughes turning into a blend of Denis Savard and Ronaldinho on the third line. And they can do it however they need to. If it's up and down and on the rush, that's where Hughes and Larkin have been. If it's grind it out down low and produce on the cycle, Eichel and at least one Tkachuk can do that. Need it on the power play? Got you covered there, too.

That said...did Auston Matthews play at even-strength? That's kind of been a sinkhole for the US, as he and Guentzel haven't really been noticeable, at least not enough, the past two games. Boldy is doing what he can, but he could use some help. At this point, it's unlikely Mike Sullivan is going to juggle any line unless he has to, so they're going to have to figure it out on their own. I would love to see Keller replace Guentzel there, but they don't seem to rate Keller as anything more than ballast at this point.

-The US also benefitted that Slovakia ate up the slop the Tkachuks lay out every game, losing their rag and taking some bad penalties and not keeping their eyes on the task. Canada is at least unlikely to be so naive. Maybe.

-So the Gold Medal Game. If it were played in a vacuum, where a bot just sent out these two teams to play as they should, the US wins. But I have no idea what either coach will actually do, as these short tournaments can and has shorted their brains at times. It's an atmosphere that can lead anyone to outthink themselves.

The US needs to realize that it absolutely can win a shootout with Canada. The fear for them is that they'll still think they're the plucky underdog, and try that silly horseshit from the Sweden game. Or that they'll spend 60 minutes trying to prove that they're tougher.

But the US can do what Czechia did, what the Finns did, except they can do it for 60 minutes. Pillage the bottom two pairings for Canada, get turnovers, pin them down, and soup things up. Canada cannot do that to them. The more that Hughes, Sanderson, Werenski, McAvoy get into open space with the puck, the more the US can do damage.

Ok, sure, McDavid may decide to win this on his own, and there may be little anyone can do about it. But if the US can keep him even relatively quiet, say only a goal and assist, and not give him and his comrades unnecessary looks on the power play, the US should outscore the rest of the team. If chances pile up on both sides, one would have to favor Hellebuyck over Binnington. Even if Canada Binnington is something different than St. Louis Binnington.

There are always going to be stretches of a game against Canada where it feels like Galactus has arrived. Those shrunk Czechia and Finland into a protective shell from which they never came out of. The US has to survive them, and then punch back. Just not literally. Because they can do the same.

The US may not be able to convince itself that a 6-5 game might be more to their liking than a 3-2 one. But that's the deal.