Pipelines Don't Matter If You Don't Have The Plumber
The medicine show the Hawks produce every game wants you to believe that five years from now is a given. Is it?
Monday was only the beginning, I'm aware. I know that I probably need to calm down about "Hawks Pravda" on CHSN every game broadcast, because that's their job. They're not supposed to take a critical eye to everything. It is to sell the product. Right now, the product is what could be, what the future might hold, and trying to attract or keep fans sticking around to watch the journey. I know all this, I know what they're doing, and I shouldn't take it at face value. It's intentional hucksterism.
I would love to know if the Sharks broadcast was doing the medicine show that Darren Pang puts on for every game. What Sharks games I have seen this season, it's been far more toned down, because San Jose is actually playing for something this season, given their place in the standings (no matter how much smoke-and-mirrors it is). Either way, what CHSN wanted you to know is that three, four, five years from now, the Hawks and Sharks will be recreating the 49ers-Cowboys rivalry of the mid-90s, no doubt. Nothing is in their way, we all just need to wait.
Let's take a trip back in time to see if that's actually the case. Whether having promise for tomorrow actually results in a grand today, or how often it does. First, let's go back five seasons. Seems reasonable, first season out of the pandemic, not too long ago, but long enough that teams that were flowering with prospects and hope should have blossomed by now. It was still this era of the NHL, where the things that mattered matter now.
Here were the best "pipelines" in 2021-2022.
- Buffalo
Five seasons since (including this one): No playoffs, one 90+ point season. Look to finally be cracking the playoff barrier this season.
Players on the list
Rasmus Dahlin - a true stud
Owen Power - Supporting cast
Dylan Cozens - Gone, for Josh Norris
Casey Mittelstadt - Gone, for Bowen Byram
J.J. Peterka - Gone, for Josh Doan
Ryan Johnson - No role
Henri Jokiharju - HA!
Jack Quinn - bottom-sixer
Summary: The Sabres had already started their top of the draft run, as Power and Dahlin were #1 picks, following Eichel at #2. They're the only ones playing anything like major roles now. Tage Thompson, Josh Doan, Alex Tuch, Peyton Krebs, Ryan McLeod, Bowen Byram, all players leading their playoff charge now, were trade acquisitions. Later draft picks, like Mattias Samuelsson or Zach Benson, have also contributed. While the Sabres a fun team and a fun story, does anyone think they're on the brink of a dynasty? Or is scraping a wildcard spot just about the ceiling of what they can do? A lot of their foundation was built through having to trade Eichel or Ryan O'Reilly. So basically, the Hawks should be taking calls on Bedard now.
- Carolina
The Canes had already started their run in the playoffs by the time this list was produced. Before this season, they were picking 13th, 28th, 2nd, 12th, and 13th. And that second pick was the result of a trade, not finish.
Four seasons since: Three division titles, two conference final appearances, three 100+ point seasons, with a fourth on the way.
Players on the list
Andrei Svechnikov - True stud
Martin Necas - Gone, for Logan Stankoven
Seth Jarvis - True stud
Jesperi Kotkaniemi - Afterthought
Dominik Bokk - Who?
Ryan Suzuki - Who?
Jamieson Reese - Who?
Noel Gunier - Who?
Justin Robidas - Assumed to be on Robidas Island
Jack Drury - Gone
Jackson Blake - Contributor
Summary: The top was very good, and the Canes already had their core in place at the time. Aho, Slavin, and Staal are still there. Still haven't been able to solve their over-the-hump issues, but a consistent contender that has a lot of its own products, and didn't need a wealth of top five picks to get there. Funny, the Hawks interviewed their current GM for their GM role. Feels worth mentioning.
- Ottawa Senators
The Sens appeared in the conference final in 2017, almost stole it from the eventual champ Penguins, and then spent the next four seasons in the abyss. They picked 1st, 3rd, 19th, and 4th leading into this.
Five seasons since: One playoff appearance, scrapping for one this season, but unlikely
Players on the list
Tim Stützle - True stud
Brady Tkachuk - True stud (as much as it sucks to admit)
Josh Norris - Gone, for Dylan Cozens
Jake Sanderson - True stud
Shane Pinto - He'll give you 3-to-1 he'll matter
Alex Formenton - should be in jail
Erik Brannstrom - Gone
Jacob Bernard-Docker - Gone
Egor Solokov - Who?
Ridly Greig - Contributor, even if he misspells his name.
Summary: The top line was locked in through their drafting, and a few other contributors were either picked or acquired via trade of a draft pick. Artyom Zub and Drake Batherson have been added. But the Sens are nowhere near these playoffs, and certainly don't feel like they're on the verge of a Cup five years later.
- New York Rangers
The Rangers had been just mediocre for the four seasons leading into this, finishing in the high 70s point-wise. They wrangled a spot at the bottom of the Bubble in 2020. They had already signed Artemi Panarin by this point, as well as Zibanejad and Fox. Kreider was long a regular. They picked 16th, 1st, 2nd, 9th, and 7th leading into this.
Five years since: A couple conference final appearances and 100-point seasons on the back of Igor Shesterkin, a complete tire fire now.
Players On The List
Alex Lafreniere - Merely a contributor to any good team
Kaapo Kakko - Gone, and only interesting when said in Terry Boers voice
Filip Chytil - Gone, promising, and also perma-dizzy
Nils Lundkvist - Gone
Braden Schneider - Contributor
Zac Jones - Who?
K'Andre Miller - Gone
Summary: The Rangers basically didn't get one core piece out of what was thought to be one of the league's best pipelines. Some of that is mismanagement, as Miller should still be around and Chytil for J.T. Miller was shortsighted. And now they're back at the start.
- L.A. Kings
This was the Kings return to the playoffs after their post-Cup contender malaise. But they only spent three seasons in the shit. They picked 8th, 2nd, 5th, 20th, and 11th leading up to this.
Five seasons since: Playoffs every year, cannon fodder for the Oilers in the first round every year. Competing for the bottom of the playoff picture this season.
Players on the list
Quinton Byfield - True stud, though barely clinging on to that status
Arthur Kaliyev - Gone
Brandt Clarke - Kings fans say true stud, looks more like a contributor, maybe in between
Sam Fagemo - Who?
Gabe Vilardi - Gone, solid contributor
Kirill Karsarnov - Who?
Alex Turcotte - Plug
Jaret Anderson-Dolan - Who?
Rasmus Kupari - He's apparently played 200 games in the NHL. No one knew
Lias Anderson - Who?
Brock Faber - Whoops!
Summary: The Kings returned to the playoffs, but are going to struggle to do that, and feel like they might already be at the end of this cycle as soon as Kopitar rides off. Byfield has stalled a bit this season, and might not be ready to assume the #1C role full-time. He may never be. Faber for Fiala got the Kings a scorer, but a scorer that hasn't gotten them anywhere near the second round, much less a Cup.
What's to be learned here? Well, the only Cup contender on this list was a team that was already a Cup contender when this list was published. They had already proven they knew how to draft, and get players through to the league to contribute or more. The other four have, at best, stalled out as first round chum for real teams. None of them are poised for years of being Cup-adjacent, and the Kings and Rangers feel more on their way back to dump than they do to the penthouse.
Even the Sabres and Sens, who have only managed one playoff appearance between them since this list, and likely a second on the way in April, have had to make deals and signings to even get to this humble plateau. They didn't just morph into a true contender over time by merely watering their Chia Pet.
To be fair to the Hawks and Kyle Davidson, what has been a major contributor to their struggles looks to be solved in these parts, and that's goaltending. Spencer Knight is better than anything the Sabres or Sens tries in these spots, at least until Linus Ullmark arrived in Ottawa. This is also a funny period of time where no one really had the opportunity to draft someone like Bedard. But Eichel was still a Sabre, Matthews has never seen a conference final, McDavid took eight years to see a Final, so that's no guarantee, either.
Food for thought.