Reality Check
The Hawks stretch the Devils to OT, but barely.
What's funny about this Hawks season is that they've had four games where they have been buried in the 30s in terms of Corsi-percentage. Last night, at Tampa, against Utah, and at Vancouver. Last night was the first of those they didn't win. Funny enough, they won the other three in regulation. They've had four games where they've had a sub-40 percent xG-share. They've won two of them, with last night being their second loss.
If we were to flip those results, subtract the six points that they probably didn't deserve, and give them a 5-8-4 record, what would the vibes and juice be? Or maybe 6-7-4? Or 5-7-5? That's probably the best measure for how important Spencer Knight has been.
If the Hawks were to have that record, though, it would obscure the improvements they've made, though maybe not the leaps that it has felt like in this young season. Last night was a lesson, but really the lesson was only that this is a thin team, and when it loses two of its top six in Burakovsky and Nazar, it is decidedly punchless.
Because last night's ugly metrics aren't really about a team that has a bad process or turtling or defensively incapable. There are certainly defensive issues, and the puck-control and speed the Devils have are going to wreak havoc on a team still learning this method of defending in their zone. But then, lots of teams have trouble getting a handle on Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt and the rest. It's why the Devils are top of the East.
The Hawks did try to meet the Devils where they were at, they just didn't have nearly the horses. They wouldn't have had nearly the horses had everyone been healthy, but removing two of their best skaters in Nazar and Burakovsky meant there was very little to counter or trouble the Devils on the forecheck. Nor were there enough forwards to keep up in the defensive zone. The Hawks didn't let the Devils just walk into their zone for most of the night, but because they couldn't sustain anything in the offensive zone, there were just far too many New Jersey possessions for them to deal with.
There was a moment in the second that I thought typified the Hawks on the night. First, Connor Murphy stands up at the blue line to cut off the Devils..
Then Kaiser does the same on the next rush.
Problem is, even though the Hawks turned the Devils over both times, they just didn't have enough gusto to do much with it, and the puck kept coming back. These are supposed to be opportunities for the Hawks to get the puck, get on a rush, and then make it stick at the other end. They only had one line that could do that last night, and that line spent most of the night getting kicked from corner to corner by Hughes. They got what they'll get when that's the case.
-That doesn't mean the Hawks were acceptably aggressive defending all night, as the Devils first goal shows:
It's so easy...when everybody's tryin' ta please me, baby...
The Devils feast on making plays just like this, right inside the offensive blue line, which Hischier does. He curls, finds Nemec on the drop pass, as Bedard is doing an excellent impression of Tyrique Stevenson's trail technique. Bertuzzi could be putting more pressure on Hischier before everything goes to shit, instead of just staring at him, but blood from a stone and all that.
-With both Nazar and Jason Dickinson out of the lineup, Jeff Blashill didn't have much choice but to send Connor Bedard out against Hughes most of the night. Asking Ryan Greene or...fuck, who even was the Hawks third center last night? Foligno? Donato? You get the point.
Obviously, it did not go well. Hughes ran over Bedard at 5-on-5 to the tune of a 75 Corsi-share and an 81 xG-share. Bedard's skating may have improved, but it's not at that level, and he's still working on the feel and instincts to maybe get ahead of plays. If any good is to come out of it, it's that when everyone's healthy, Blashill will be disabused of the notion that Bedard can be used in a "fight fire with fire" kind of fashion against other teams' top lines.
-But hey, the Hawks got their second goal off the kind of forechecking I've been screaming for instead of a hasty retreat into the 1-1-3:
It certainly helps that this came against Luke Hughes, who has very little idea what's going on in his own end, and Brenden Dillon, who has very little idea of what's going on anywhere. And it was the fourth line, with Lafferty, Slaggert, and Foligno, two vets who are probably a little more comfortable with what they're being asked than the young kids who still are finding their feet. But at least it's there.
Let's give the fourth line some more flowers. That chip up and chase down from Foligno to Lafferty for the Hawks' third is a play we should see more often from players higher up the lineup. There's too much piece-by-piece in the Hawks attack. It's ok to go direct sometimes. The whole Premier League is doing it!
-A word on Dillon. With Brendan Smith now out of the league, he might have to take the mantle for the worst player in it. He is an absolute fuckwit, and I wouldn't be shocked if he finds a way to torpedo the Devils' chances of a deep playoff run if Sheldon Keefe can't find a way to get him out of the lineup. He also should have been ejected for his first period hit on Bertuzzi, and he's lucky BerToilet doesn't have a brain to bruise.
Bertuzzi's numbers are clearly visible, he's clearly facing the glass, he clearly doesn't have the puck, and not only does Dillon run him into the glass and drive his elbow into Bertuzzi's head, he leaves his feet to do it. That was nothing but a blatant attempt to injure, and the fact that this kind of hit always just nets a two-minute minor lets you know that hockey doesn't really care about cleaning this type of stuff up.
-Now to Sam Rinzel. I don't know if the Hawks have it in them to admit a mistake and overexcitement about eight games that didn't matter, but he continues to look overmatched most of the night, every night. Oh sure, there are flashes every night about what could come. He shook off a forechecker early in the 1st last night with a shoulder dip and turn that freed himself into acres of space, the kind of chutzpah with the puck that few have. But that was about it.
I know calling up Korchinski to replace him for 10-15 games would make the pairs look weird, with someone having to play their offside given that Korch is left-handed. But Rinzel probably needs to feel what it's like to run a game for a little bit. He's barely getting chances in the offensive end, and he spends a good amount of time in the d-zone just looking around trying to figure out where to be. He's not breaking the Hawks out consistently, and he's certainly not getting them out on the rush or joining it. Levshunov has bounced the power play to a new level by simply moving the puck far quicker.
It doesn't have to be for long, but the kid is definitely in line for a reset.
-On the other end of the spectrum, Artyom Levshunov will always be an adventure, but at least it's ending better more often the past couple weeks. He had a seal off of a forechecker in the second period last night that simply ended a Devils possession that comes from feeling confident enough to start using his frame more. There was a rush with the puck up the ice in the 3rd. We're seeing these plays more and more every game. With Levshunov starting usurp Rinzel's time (he had three more minutes at 5-on-5 last night), it would be even easier to give Rinzel a break in Rockford.
-Finally, Oliver Moore's progress into being the next Viktor Stalberg continues on pace. He is obviously ridiculously fast. He knows where to be most of the time. He can cause chaos by getting on opponents so much quicker than they expect. Then at the moment of truth, when it's time to make the final pass or finish...yeah, well...
Onwards. A very beatable Leafs team, without Auston Matthews, shows up Saturday, and they have a blue line that the Hawks should feast on.