So What Changed?

Kyle Davidson appears to be breaking up with free agents before they can break up with him.

Never let it be said that Hawks Reddit can't occasionally open your eyes to something you'd missed:

This was in response to yet another piece in The Athletic, there's been about 104 of these since February, where the Hawks are preparing the ground to do a whole lot of not much in free agency. We get it, the Hawks aren't a likely landing spot for Mitch Marner.

At this point, with the repeated leaks to everyone about how the Hawks are unsure of the fit with Marner (Marner fits with every team), this is clearly a dedicated message they want out there. As Wally points out above, this is in direct opposition to what they wanted out there last summer, when it was no secret how hard they chased Jake Guentzel, and ended up with Tyler Bertuzzi.

Guentzel obviously wanted to go somewhere he had a chance to win. So did every other useful winger, which left the Hawks with the trash they have now. Davidson's stretch of rejection wasn't over, though. David Carle decided he was better off in the NCAA than taking over what Kyle has wrought. So did one or two other assistants who were getting interviews elsewhere, reportedly. That left Davidson with giving the job to the only guy who would take it, and then feeling the need to keep the only other guy who would take it on staff.

Even if the Hawks were desperate to reset the salary record by open lengths to woo Marner, there's no guarantee he would take it. Though he certainly wants to be freed of the pressures and bullshit that comes with playing in Toronto, it's highly unlikely his tastes of the playoffs have him primed to also leave those behind for the next couple years while the Hawks figure it out. Even if he wanted as low-pressure as he can find, Anaheim or Utah could be chasing playoff spots next season. Marner doesn't necessarily have to give up playing games that matter at all in exchange for getting out of Toronto. That's the deal he would make here.

There's this line of thinking out there that Marner doesn't fit in timeline-wise, and that's one the Hawks want out there, too. That for some reason, Marner at 30 would be holding a dynamic, young Hawks team back through his cap hit and aging wheels. A. This assumes that everything comes good for the Hawks, and we're so far away from that it can't be assumed by anyone. B. That Marner is going to fall apart in the next few years, and top tier players like him that aren't power forwards don't age like that. C. The Hawks have no wingers.

We don't know who might hit free agency in the next year or two, though the Hawks have been making googly eyes and Kirill Kaprizov for a while now. That could get squashed as soon as July 1, when he can sign an extension in Minnesota. Given the struggles the Wild have had penning Marco Rossi to a deal, it's safe to assume they're keeping all their powder dry to make sure Kaprizov doesn't go anywhere. Even if they have to sacrifice Rossi to do it.

But with an exploding cap the next two or three years, which team is going to let a genuine, top line winger just walk? Maybe Kyle Connor is tired of freezing his ass off in Winnipeg. Is that really a better option than Marner? The constantly wandering Martin Necas? There aren't better answers.

No, this all feels like Kyle From Chicago protecting himself from looking like he's got his dick in his hand and a thumb in his ass. It'll look better for him, in the Hawks' mind, if they do the whole "we didn't really like you, anyway" instead of the full-court press to only watch Marner spurn their advances. No one likes rejection, after all. Davidson has had plenty of it, and the more he piles up the more it looks like this whole "project" was just a scheme to keep himself in the job.

It wasn't even a year ago that Davidson's big board was drafting both Artyom Levshunov and Ivan Demidov, while signing Guentzel. He only got the first, ended up with a coach now that inspires no one, and a lot of questions about his plan. Now the company line is that they have to continue to be patient and see the process through, even though exactly no one does that in the NHL and gets anywhere. Even Kyle's beloved Stars traded for Tyler Seguin, signed Duchene and Suter. "The Plan" is all he's got to cling to.

Perhaps Davidson is starting to realize the rest of the league doesn't see his project the way he does and the way he's deluded his boss into seeing. Free agents don't want to waste their prime years. Coaches think they have better opportunities to make a splash.

Does anyone actually believe the Hawks think they're "above" Marner, and not the other way around? This is self-protection, no evolution.