The Case For Trading Alex Vlasic, Here Come The Warm Jets, MLS Gobbledegook
Let's end the week by talking about an outlandish trade idea, previewing Saturday afternoon's game with Winnipeg, and Dan Garber letting some ooze dribble out of his mouth.
Sector 1901 - The Case For Trading Alex Vlasic
Let me state at the top that this isn't a rumor that I read somewhere. This is completely out of my addled skull. I haven't even discussed it with the podcast boys, such is the outlandish nature of it and the uneasy statement it makes about my own stability. The Hawks love Alex Vlasic, not only for the player he's become, or the player he might be, but what he says about their development methods and paths. Vlasic is their argument against any criticism of the rebuild, especially as Connor Bedard starts taking razor blades to his own jeans, shaving his eyebrows, and wearing black lipstick. This will never, ever happen.
But what my book presupposes is, maybe it should?
The main argument for trading Vlasic is not just the value he would have, which is sizable, but the outlook of the Hawks from here on out. And what role the team really sees Vlasic carrying in the future.
Is Vlasic really going to be a prime puck-mover on a contending team? He's been asked to be that on this team, even when Seth Jones was healthy, and the results are...shaky. Obviously, it's hard to fairly judge anyone on this team, given just how bad it is. But Vlasic's metrics are underwater, and while he's a good skater, if he was going to be offensively dynamic we would probably know by now. While Vlasic may be a top pairing guy on a really good team one day, he's not going to be the puck-moving, get-up-and-go, #1 PP QB guy on it.
That's ok though, because the Hawks already have a couple players they think will be that player, in Kevin Korchinski and Sam Rinzel. There's a long road to go with both, especially with Rinzel, who may be three years away as it is. But that's the projection. Korch could be here now and showing us, but you've read that newsletter.
Vlasic is something of a rare player, in that he skates so well and gets the Hawks out of their zone pretty cleanly while not being an offensive weapon. He is something of the new-age free safety/stay-at-home defenseman. He's highly mobile but focused on his own end, with good size to do what he needs to around the net.
Thing is, the Hawks have a few candidates for that role going forward, too. That's what Levshunov is supposed to be, though maybe with slightly more offense. That's what Wyatt Kaiser looks like he's going to be, though not as big. That's where Nolan Allan is headed, too. Basically, the Hawks have a lot of depth on their blue line. It's easy to picture a top four in the future of Korch, Levshunov, Rinzel, and Allan/Kaiser. Should all of them continue to step forward, that would be pretty good! And that's assuming the Hawks move Seth Jones along, which they certainly don't have to. Jones could easily slot down to a second-pairing role as he ages.
That doesn't mean I think, or anyone thinks, that either Allan or Kaiser will end up better than Vlasic. It's just that Vlasic, by a wild margin, would have more trade value than any of them. In fact, Vlasic is probably the most valuable commodity around – a young, mobile d-man not making all that much. His $4.6M cap hit will basically be a pittance when the cap jumps up aggressively in the next couple years. Especially for what he can provide.
The Leafs have been screaming for a player like Vlasic for six seasons or more. Could a package around Matthew Knies and a couple others be worked out? If the Wild get jittery about Kirill Kaprizov not re-signing and need to move him next summer, is Vlasic the centerpiece of that? The Oilers, much like the Leafs, have needed a Vlasic-type for pretty much all of Connor McDavid's career. Vlasic is probably what they wanted Darnell Nurse to be. Sadly, they don't really have a young, dynamic winger or three the Hawks would need in return.
Three-quarters of the league would be jamming Kyle Davidson's cell if Vlasic became available, if not more. It's the chance to make a blockbuster deal for two or three wingers the Hawks simply don't have in the system to play with with or behind Bedard. And don't start with Colton Dach. No one's listening. Sure, Boisvert, Greene, Spellacy, they all could be something one day. The Hawks need surer bets for next year and beyond. Even more so now that Davidson has started his own clock by canning Luke Richardson.
The blue line is their strength to deal from. But how much value do Kaiser or Allan or even Korchinski have right now? It'll never happen, but if Davidson ever truly wanted to show some balls, this would be something he would look into. He's got replacements in-house, it could net him more than anything else. It's the kind of trade that can accelerate a rebuild. And also the kind that could ruin it. But at some point, a team has to bet big.
But it'll never happen.
Jets Preview
Winnipeg Jets Lineup
Connor - Scheifele - Vilardi
Namestnikov - Lambert - Perfetti
Neiderreiter - Lowry - Appleton
Barron - Kupari - Iafallo
Morrissey - Demelo
Fleury - Pionk
Stanley - Heinola
Hellebuyck/Comrie
What You Need To Know: The Jets will roll into the United Center in a definite dip. They've lost four in a row and five of the last six before getting the win in overtime last night in Buffalo. They've dropped out of first in the Central, ceding the spot to the Wild, who keep insisting that they are in fact a real team. Maybe we'll listen some day.
The Jets still have the second-best goal-difference in the league behind the Caps And they still have a pretty good grip on second, with a four-point gap to the Stars in third. So the question as it always is during times like these: Is this just a normal beer belch during a very long season? Or indicative of something deeper and more structural?
It may lean toward the latter. Though to be more accurate about it, it's more of a market correction. The Jets haven't been a great possession team all season, and their Corsi and xG% have been dipping over the past month. Their offense has tanked of late, scoring just six goals in those last four losses. They're still fifth in goals-per-game, but most of that springs from a power play that's clicking at over 30 percent. At evens, this is a middling group, ranking 17th in xGF at 5-on-5.
Most of the problems stem from a steep divide forming between the top line and the rest. And this was a team getting production from the bottom six before. Nikolaj Ehlers has missed the past couple games, though he could return tomorrow, and normally that would be the end of the investigation. But Ehlers's chance-production both for himself and his linemates has really dropped off this season from last, so that's not it.
Cole Perfetti has three goals since November 1. Namestnikov has one goal in his last 10. That's the second line. Adam Lowry's unit gets the dungeon shifts, as he doesn't even start 30 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone, and yet they still turn the ice over very effectively. But Neiderreiter has two goals in his last 13, So there you go.
The Jets also are struggling to score when they can't get goals off the rush. Teams have stopped them up more and more, and the Jets' D are more passsers than carriers. The forwards generate a lot of the zone entries here, and they haven't been doing it as effectively as of late. Ehlers being out doesn't help either.
Still, there's a baseline for the Jets, as Hellebuyck is never going to let them be all that bad. The Jets ask him to do more than they should, but he's always up to the task. He's probably the clubhouse leader for the Vezina at the moment. The Jets do play again on Sunday, though it's at home against Columbus, so hard to know which one they'll deem the easier assignment to throw Eric Comrie at (it's the Hawks).
Player To Watch - Kyle Connor
Ehlers was our free agent-to-be to watch the last time these two danced. But his falloff in his offensive game so far this season while turning 29 in February has given enough pause to at least see how he finishes the season. Connor isn't a free agent until 2026, but will be due an extension in July. With teams like Winnipeg, re-signing their stars is never a guarantee, especially as the cap leaps up and they still struggle to sell out the building. Most likely, the Jets will let Ehlers walk to afford Connor and the raise from his current $7M salary he'll command.
Connor is on pace for another 40-goal season, has been an easy bet for 30+ for his entire career. What one might raise an eyebrow at is that he's on pace for a career-high in power play goals, but his even-strength chances and attempts have taken a dip. Over the last 55 games or so of this season, teams that might think about jumping the gun and getting Connor before he hits the market, should he want out of Winnipeg, would want to see his even-strength production go up. Breaking the bank for player who is becoming more and more of a power play specialist is how things tend to go balls-up.
It'll make things interesting for the Jets come July, though. A year after that they don't want to be without both Ehlers and Connor, as that might signal it's time to tear the whole thing down. Hard times, daddy.
The Kickmen - Dan Garber Can't Talk
On the eve of the MLS Cup Final, the commissioner of the league is obviously going to be more visible. But I got a huge kick out of this from Awful Announcing about Don Garber.
To sum up, neither Apple nor MLS have ever given the public any numbers on their subscribers to MLS's streaming on Apple. Most of the big streamers don't ever let slip how many subscribers they have. But Apple is the only carrying an entire sports league's broadcasts, so it's something of a unique circumstance.
It has led to a lot of frustration and speculation. Being the cynical sort I am I feel like if the numbers were mind-blowing, we would know. Maybe Apple feels if they open the gates a mere skosh to allow the MLS Season Pass numbers out they might have to for everything they do. But I can't see how that works.
Anyway, that article linked is basically Garber putting all the blame on Apple for the lack of transparency, and hoping one day that they might change it. But it does have this great exchange as Garber was interviewed by CNBC's Alex Sherman:
“So you want the number out there?” Sherman posed.
“I think the number will get out there,” Garber said.
“Here’s our chance,” Sherman shot back. “Just tell us.”
“That’s true, I think that all of us would like to see more transparency,” Garber deflected.
“They will have to say the number is what you’re saying. This is not an MLS issue, this is an Apple issue,” Sherman suggested.
“Right, correct,” said Garber.
It's hard to believe the commissioner of the league wouldn't know that number, but he's clearly afraid of being pee-pee slapped by his Apple overlords for giving it out there. And MLS isn't a league that can take on an entity like Apple. Hell, the league is only on Apple because it couldn't generate enough of an interest from a network. Garber will do as he's told.
Another domestic footy nugget is that MLS and Liga MX are still pushing ahead with a third edition of the Leagues Cup next year. Even though there will also be the normal MLS regular season, the CONCACAF Gold Cup, and the Club World Cup (that no one gives a flying fornication about) next summer as well.
If there's a market to be saturated, you can be sure sports execs will find it. If MLS and Apple are finding subscription numbers to be a struggle, it might be because A. Just how saturated the market has become over the summer (with NWSL alongside of it, except the NWSL might be the best women's league in the world so fans know they're watching the best) and B. Most fans recognize how little the MLS regular season means. It's hard to fork over that cash to watch teams slog through the July heat over a 5th seed in the playoffs, which also never seem to end themselves.
Garber and Apple are in this together, and the suspicion is that they're both using each other to not divulge some numbers that wouldn't impress anyone.
