The Gennaro Gattuso Corollary, The Cubs Put On Their Big Boy Pants, Market Correction For The Gunners
Going through the Hawks' weekend, the Cubs big trade, and Arsenal's inability to, y'know, score.
Sector 1901 - The Gennaro Gattuso Corollary
That's the easiest way to sum up the Hawks loss in New Jersey and their win the next afternoon at home against the woebegone Islanders. A woebegone Islanders team they completely collapsed against on Thursday. No one said it wouldn't be confusing. The the price of entry for following a team like this.
While the Hawks giving up an avalanche of goals in Newark felt like a similar collapse as the one on Long Island, that one was probably more the Devils getting tired of playing with their food and asserting their class. The Hawks only had two shots in the first period on Saturday, and only scored thanks to Luke Hughes's face. They were lucky to even be in the game in the 3rd when it all went to shit.
The story they want to tell after Sunday's game is that even after the Isles tied it u early in the final frame, they were actually able to stem the tide for once. Eh, not really so. They were doubled-up in shots, attempts, and expected goals. They kind of did the same thing they've been doing, it just didn't go haywire for no other reason than the Islanders suck eggs. This was the kind of thing that got Luke Richardson fired. While there was big talk when Anders Sorensen took over about active d-men and aggressive forechecking, they've been held under 25 shots three times in Sorensen's five games.
But hey, they won a game, Connor Bedard scored a late game-winner, Frank Nazar and Kevin Korchinski are up, and the Hawks are just far more interesting to watch when they are. It ain't all bad.
Let's get through it together.
With four minutes gone in the 1st against the Devils, Jack Hughes lined up T.J. Brodie off the rush. A tale in two photos:
Korch was involved all over on Saturday, both good and bad. A tidy breakout pass from blue line to blue line drew eventually drew a penalty on the Devils, the broadcast couldn't wait to talk about how much his month and a half in the AHL did for his development when it could have just as easily been a summer of NHL weight training and another year of aging, and he didn't cover himself in glory on the Devils third goal.
After trying to make an incisive pass in the offensive zone while unfortunately fading away, which was easily picked off and then sent the other way for a 3-on-2. From there, Korch got uber aggressive:
That's the aftermath, as Korch tried to cut off Jesper Bratt along the boards instead of staying inside the dots. I can't claim to watch the Icehogs much, but this seems like the kind of play that Korch could get away with in the AHL. Because he's so much faster than anyone down there, he could jump out on a player along the boards, even on an odd-man rush, and probably close it down before a play can be made. Jesper Bratt is not in the AHL, and neither is Nico Hischier, who are going to romp through this kind of space. This seems like the kind of bad habit we were afraid of Korch developing in a league he's way too good for.
But it's also the kind of sequence a talented young d-man makes when he's trying to force his teams back into it after they've gone down two goals in the 3rd period. Heart in the right place and all that.
Quite the weekend for Teuvo Teravainen. He was a fourth-liner in New Jersey on Saturday and then putting up three points on Sunday. Darren Pang seemed to be doing the front office's work on Sunday by sort of hinting that Teuvo needed to work harder or something.
Teravainen spent seven seasons in Carolina as a top six forward, and the Canes whole thing is how hard they work and how much more effort they put in over their opponents. If Teuvo were some kind of loaf, he wouldn't have made it under Rod Brind'Amour.
The problem for Teravainen is that both Richardson and now Sorensen have become too enamored with him as part of a safety blanket on a third line, thanks to his defensively responsible ways. Watch the pass Teuvo makes first to Taylor Hall and then Mikheyev for the Hawks opener on Sunday, and imagine what could be if he were give the opportunity to make those kinds of passes to Bedard for a month or two, instead of Ryan Donato and Phil Kurashev doing nothing for #98.
When protecting a lead in the 3rd, after two straight third period dry heaves, the Hawks certainly gave us a glimpse into how that sort of thing happens:
All three forwards outside the circle on one side of the ice, leaving the Isles best d-man Noah Dobson a prairie to skate into and score. Let's clean that up, children.
The big story was Frank Nazar finally coming up for air. Nazar has the kind of speed the Hawks always claim their draftees and acquisitions have but always fall short of. Bit of a rough introduction to have play his first game against New Jersey on the road, and Sunday's tilt didn't go too much better. But at least he and Hall and Bertuzzi seemed determined to carry the puck into the zone and connect with each other when there instead of the dump-happy ways we'd seen from the team all season. All things in time.
Most of the time, I would rather watch a "Dirty Program" than the Hawks. But that's not your job, CHSN.
Between G-Man And Nisei - Putting On The Big Boy Pants
They actually did it. There's been a section of us screaming for the Cubs to acquire, by any means, a genuine MVP candidate. And they did. Kyle Tucker is that good, but we've been over that. I thought they would just use the "we were close!" method that Kyle Davidson is so fond of to try and fool fans into thinking they were serious. Fair play to them.
It's hard to state how much of an upgrade Tucker is to the Cubs lineup. Because it's all upgrade. While Isaac Paredes is a good player, and will probably be good for the Astros either at 1st or 3rd, he was a nothing for the Cubs in 2024. Going from the 2024 roster to the 2025 one, as constructed, the Cubs are basically adding all of Tucker's expected 5- or 6- or 7-WAR. There's no deduction from what they gave up, which would have been the case had they included Suzuki in the deal. Right now, it's last year's team, plus Kyle Tucker. It probably won't stay that way, but we'll get to that.
The most annoying section of Greater Cubdom are those filling their pants about Cam Smith. They don't know any better than you what Cam Smith will be, and I'm always squinting just a bit at any player described as having, "a long swing." Though the fact that the Astros wanted him, an organization that's been about 74 times better at producing their own players than the Cubs, is a reason to hold one's breath a touch. But Smith wasn't going to help in 2025, and the Cubs have been sitting around doing nothing for long enough. It's go time, and after Juan Soto signed, Tucker was just about the biggest stomp on the gas pedal available.
The Cubs could roll with this lineup right now, while risking that Michael Busch might be a danger to himself and society at third base while installing Cody Bellinger at 1st. They could, possibly, get even better by simply swapping out Nico Hoerner for Matt Shaw, though obviously that's no guarantee. Having too many good players isn't really a problem.
Of course, we know they probably won't do that. If they can move Bellinger for a real pitcher, not just the idea of one, that's cool too. Simply dumping Bellinger to get rid of his salary is in direct opposition to what trading for only one guaranteed year of Kyle Tucker states. That is that the Cubs want to do some shit in 2025. Teams that want to do that don't just get rid of salary for the sake of it. Especially with all the ways Bellinger helps a team win even if he's not a dominant hitter anymore.
As far as signing Tucker long-term, we probably know the answer already. But there is a path to the Cubs keeping Tucker long-term at the money he'll get and staying short of the repeater penalty, which we know has been their Holy Grail. It would just involve having to dive pretty deep into the luxury tax in 2026. Stick with me here.
Even if Tucker ends up costing $45 million a year, and he might on the open market, after 2026 the Cubs lose Suzuki's, Happ's, and Taillon's contract. That's $56 million right there. Bellinger's contract will be gone before then, too, probably long before. Only Justin Steele will move from arbitration to free agency in that time, and at 32 who knows what the Cubs will want to do with him. That will depend on how much, if any, of their young pitching comes through to not just take innings but star.
That sounds like a lot leaving, but the outfield would still have Tucker and whichever of PCA/Caissie hits in the majors, maybe Kevin Alcántara as well, with Swanson, Busch, Shaw, and whatever else might be left at third by that point. That's hardly an expensive base, fits in Tucker's salary easily with room to add. Of course, the current CBA ends after the 2026 season, so the system could look like anything at that point.
Yeah, Tommy Boy would have to pay the piper in 2026 while paying Tucker the GDP of a few small countries and keeping Suzuki, Happ, Taillon, et al. It was going to happen at some point. If they won't pay Kyle Tucker, who would they be waiting around to pay?
That's a worry for another time. The Cubs did the damn thing and fans should be delighted. We'll play salary connect-four another time.
Let England Shake - The Gunners Go To Market
We'll wrap up with our usual Premier League thoughts after another full weekend. Starting in North London, as has been a habit of late, and Arsenal fans are getting a little jumpy about their squad's inability to score in any other fashion other than finding Gabriel's forehead.
Certainly a 0-0 draw with Everton at home isn't what anyone was looking for (except for one very annoying, assholic ginger). The xG wasn't as bad this time as it was against Fulham, as Arsenal did create 1.05 xG in open play and normally that's probably enough. Just didn't finish, and Jordan Pickford had one of those days he occasionally throws together in goal.
It's got Arsenal supporters' angina kicking after only scoring once against Fulham and kind of struggling to get the two they did against Man United. But that was amidst two dominant Champions League wins and not that long after they easily put up five against West Ham (whatever that's worth).
Still, looking at the numbers, feels like Arsenal is coming back to their level in a way. The past two seasons, the Gunners outran their season-long xG by 15 goals and 16 goals. Last season, it was mainly Leandro Trossard and Declan Rice wildly over-performing the chances they got. Rice hasn't scored this season, and Arsenal shouldn't really be counting on him to do so. Trossard had run hot as a finisher the season before, when he transferred from Brighton to North London, but last season was the only full one he's eclipsed 10 goals or more. He can't really be counted on to do that season after season.
The only consistent plus finisher in the squad is Bukayo Saka. We know Kai Havertz isn't that deadly of a finisher, even with all the other things he provides his team. He only had one shot against Everton, and only four touches in the opposing box overall. We've been over Martinelli's lack of production, and Martin Odergaard has mostly been hurt.
Arsenal are definitely creating a little less than the past two seasons (on pace for 64 xG when they were over 70 the past two), but their biggest problem is that they're scoring exactly what the numbers say they deserve to (29 goals on 27 xG). And other than Saka, it's hard to see who would bloat that.
-With Arsenal drawing and City losing, Liverpool's draw at home with Fulham doesn't feel as bad as it did at the time. And with 10 men for over an hour against a pretty good team in The Cottagers, maybe it wasn't bad at all. There's a discussion to be had whether Andy Robertson is decomposing in front of our eyes, but we'll save it.
What will have Arne Slot a little concerned is that the control the Reds had exhibited over matches for most of the season has disappeared of late. Fulham had 12 shots and could have been multiple goals up even when it was 11-on-11. Girona had seven shots on target and produced 1.84 xG. Newcastle did even more damage than that, scoring three times on 1.99 xG.
Newcastle did it by harassing Liverpool all over the field, because sometimes St. James's Park turns the Newcastle 11 all into werewolves for a match. Not every team can do that. Against Girona, Liverpool couldn't really track the runs from deep from their midfield, which continued against Fulham. Ok, some of that is due to being down a man. And then it took another 10-15 minutes after the sending off for Slot to sort out Liverpool's formation with just 10 dudes, at one point trying out Cody Gakpo as a left wing-back. That was quickly ditched. It was also a game that Liverpool spent most of chasing, as they trailed for most of it. So there's some score-effects in all this.
In the past couple months, the only team the Reds have held under 1.0 xG for a match is City, which kind of says everything about where the latter is right now. In the season's first three months, only two teams managed to get more than 1.0 xG against Liverpool.
Some of that could be fatigue, as Liverpool have basically only used four midfielders for the three spots they feature. Harvey Elliot being back will alleviate some of that, but Slot seems allergic to trying Wataru Endo in anything other than the League Cup or in the final five minutes of any other match. Might be something that needs to get addressed in January.
