Time To Get Neal Page Home

We're gonna set up the three Thanksgiving weekend games the Hawks have and then it's time for Terry Boers Christmas drunk. Last reminder, going behind the subscription wall come Monday. We all knew this mumbo jumbo wouldn't fly!

Sector 1901 - Time To Get Neal Page Home

The Hawks have three games on either side of the holiday, so we'll rip through them in just a slightly abbreviated fashion. You've already seen the Stars twice anyway, so you don't need me to tell you who to watch!

Dallas Stars Lineup

Robertson - Hintz - Johnston

Marchment - Duchene - Seguin

Benn - Bourque - Stankoven

Back - Steel - Dadonov

Lindell - Heiskanen

Harley - Lyubushkin

Smith - Dumba

Oettinger/DeSmith

What You Need To Know: It all seems pretty serene for the Stars right now. Yeah, they're 10 points behind the Jets for the top of the Central. But they have two games in hand, so any sort of extended dip for the Jets and the Stars could probably get back in the discussion at least. They're two points ahead of the Avs for the last automatic playoff spot, with two games in hand on them as well. And as you all know, American Thanksgiving (in the NHL you do have to distinguish which Thanksgiving you're talking about) is the landmark which mostly dictates which teams are going to be in the playoffs and who's out.

Remember last time when we said Matt Duchene wasn't going to keep shooting 25 percent? We were right...because now he's shooting 31 percent. The exploding fireworks barge that the second line has been has kind of masked that the Stars' first line hasn't been great. Jason Robertson only has five goals, Roope Hintz is just above a point every other game. Wyatt Johnston has been moved to their wing to try and juice it a bit, and they're creating more chances now that he's there. Logic dictates that whenever the second line finally deflates even a touch, these three should pick up the slack. Hockey has a thing about logic, though.

This is sort of a weird Peter DeBoer team. While they have nifty d-men in Heiskanen, Harley, and Lindell, none of these players are really doing all that much. They're not asked to. The Stars are generating almost all of their offense off the rush, so these d-men that are capable of whatever could be asked of them are basically instructed to just fling the puck out of their zone and let the forwards rush onto it. None of these guys rate all that highly in carrying or passing out of the Stars' zone, but they do rank highly in how often they simply clear the puck out of their end. It's working ok for now, but one imagines they'll have to get more creative in the spring to get one over on say the Jets or Knights or Oilers (we're still not taking the Wild seriously and we'll get to that in a sec).

The goalies are still really good, though Oettinger and DeBoer still insist on the former taking too many starts, even after he fell apart at the end of the Oilers series last season. They still remain a lot of people's Cup pick given the forward depth here and the assurance that Robertson will start scoring again. Even when the pixie dust wears off Duchene, Tyler Seguin is still one of the best at getting to scoring spots and producing chances from there. They'll certainly be a tough out, even if they employ the two dumbest defensemen in the league in Brendan Smith and Matt Dumba.

Minnesota Wild Lineup

Kaprizov - Eriksson Ek - Boldy

Johansson - Rossi - Hartman

Foligno - Gaudreau - Trenin

Lauko - Jones - Shore

Middleton - Faber

Brodin - Spurgeon

Chisholm - Bogosian

Gustavsson/Fleury

What You Need To Know: The question for just about anyone tasked with watching the Wild is, do you believe in them as a Western top seed? The answer should be pretty simple: If Joel Eriksson Ek is a #1 center, Ryan Hartman is anywhere on the top six, and any kind of Foligno is involved, then no, absolutely fucking not.

It's obviously never that simple in the NHL. The Wild are a smothering defensive team. They're second in the league in expected goals against, and their goalies stop everything (2nd in even-strength save-percentage too). They give up simply nothing anywhere near their net, and they're middle of the pack in giving up attempts at all.

But yes, it comes at the expense of their offense. They get nothing off the rush, and they're not particularly interested in getting anything off the rush. Kaprizov (before he's traded to the Hawks next summer HAHAHA) and Boldy are some of the best scorers and chance-creators in the league off the cycle, so that's fine. Whereas the Stars will fling the puck out of the zone in the hopes of hitting a fly or post pattern (they don't really call them that anymore, do they?) to their forwards, the Wild are only concerned with getting it out for the sake of getting it out. When they attack they do it in stages and slowly, in the hopes of getting that cycle going.

It's hard to think of the last team to suffer-ball their way to the Final or beyond. The Stars have been to back-to-back conference finals, but they are more dynamic than whatever the Wild are trying to be, and they also didn't get past that round. Are the Wild going to really try and just slog and strangle their way past the Jets, Avalanche and Stars in the division? They likely would have to get through two of them. And should they even manage that (they won't), are they going to build a bunch of trenches to stop the Oilers or Knights after that?

But yeah, as for Friday afternoon, this probably won't be much of a cure for your Thanksgiving hangover. The Hawks don't really have a way through the landmines the Wild install in the middle of their zone nor the d-men to break anything they do in the neutral zone. Can they handle the Wild's cycle? They did once this season at home. But it's not gonna be very pretty to watch whichever way it goes.

Columbus Blue Jackets Lineup

Voronkov - Monahan - Marchenko

Chinikhov - Fantilli - Johnson

Aston-Reese - Danforth - Olivier

van Riemsdyk - Kuraly - LaBanc

Werenski - Fabbro

Provorov - Severson

Christiansen - Harris

Merzlikins/Tarasov

What You Need To Know: The urge is to look at the Jackets only ahead of the Penguins (who are truly butt) in the Metro Division, add to it their best player being killed this summer by a drunk driver, and conclude that this is just another nothing Blue Jackets season with a few more nothing seasons to follow after pretty much their entire nothing existence so far. Same as it ever was.

It's not quite so. The Jackets are...actually interesting? At least a little? It looks that way. If this team could get a save anywhere, it might be close to tickling a wildcard spot in the East.

The Jackets' metrics are both very positive, ranking 10th in Corsi and 11th in xG%. They have a top line combo in Sean Monahan and Kirill Marchenko that is thumping opponents on a nightly basis. Zack Werenski remains a pretty nifty puck-mover. There's a very solid second-pairing here in Provorov and Severson that is taking the dungeon shifts yet still turning the ice over for Columbus, though Provorov could end up a deadline prize come the end of February.

The Jackets have been showtime of late. They scored seven against the Lightning. They put up five on the Hurricanes last Saturday. The kicked the Bruins' ass last week to the tune of 5-1, and a couple days before that punted the sad-sack Pens into orbit with six goals.

What's surprising is that the Jackets have been pretty exciting while getting nothing from last year's top pick Adam Fantilli. In fact, he's been pretty terrible in his NHL career. getting domed possession-wise. He missed half the season last year through injury, but not much has changed so far this season. I wasn't the only one who thought Fantilli, with his NHL-ready frame and hands coming out of one dominant year at Michigan, had a good chance of being somewhat near Bedard. It hasn't happened yet.

The Jackets this year haven't needed Fantilli to produce like a #1 center because Sean Monahan is rolling back the years. Somehow, he's still only 30 even if it feels like he's been around since the Old Stadium days. Monahan's had a weird career, as he was a #1 center on some pretty decent Flames teams, yet it seemed like they were constantly trying to upgrade from him. He produced like a very good #2 center on the Canadiens when they weren't doing anything, and then did the same in Winnipeg last season. Is he really a #1 center? Probably not for a team that wants to do anything. But he's in the right spot here, and can buy Fantilli time.

It would more exciting in Ohio if either of their goalies weren't waving at imaginary butterflies every night. The Jackets are 29th in even-strength save-percentage. Their goalies are 10.3 goals behind where they should be in terms of saves over expected. Or under expected, in this case.

In the end, it might all work out if their goalies never recover. Marchenko is really promising. Chinakhov has flashed. If they add a top-3 pick, and Fantilli ever comes in from the cold, there's something here to work with. And Dean Evason behind the bench is clearly Not A Moron (TM). The Jackets likely won't come close to anything this season. But they're probably worth keeping an eye on.

The Kickmen - Pep Stares Into The Abyss

I won't risk laughing too hard, or gloating too much, over Man City spitting up a three-goal, second half lead to the fourth best team in Holland yesterday. I know what could happen Sunday, even without the benefit of a Fels Motherfuck. Still, this was Pep Guardiola after Feyenoord had only made it 3-1:

Look, we know all the credit Pep has earned as maybe the greatest manager of all-time, especially with his players. It's not clear how much players even look at their manager during a game. City are on their worst run in a very long time, so tensions are high. I'm not a believer in body language usually. It's like none of this matters.

But if any player did happen to glance over, when the game was still very much in control, and see this? It's not confidence inspiring, let's say. At a time when City are clearly clawing for any shred of it. This is how we're supposed to react with a 3-1 lead? It doesn't exactly exude assurance that the team can see out the last 15 minutes with a two-goal lead. Even if players don't look over, it's a harbinger of how everyone is feeling even at what should remain a comfortable point in the game. Pep can go on to refer to his team's fragility after the post game, but this is the picture of it. This is what's permeating through City right now.

It's been a theory out there, one I happen to agree with, that the main thing holding Arsenal back from truly glory is just how frenetic they've been mentally. The team is all there. The ability, too. But first it was just HOW MUCH IT ALL MATTERED TO THEM. Then they were adamant that every game DIDN'T MEAN THAT MUCH CAN'T YOU SEE HOW CALM WE ARE?! Now it's basically a referee conspiracy every week but they're definitely NOT UPSET ABOUT IT. THEY'RE SO CALM.

When you're manager looks like this after game, though?

Maybe things have gotten a little too unstable at the Etihad, too.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Booooooggggeeeerrrrrrrr!