Where Does The Low Event Road Lead?
Some teams get back to respectability by taking the air out of the...puck. Sure, whatever. But is that all it leads to?
This is sort of an addendum to the Flyers Denouement, and perhaps a warning to a team like, oh I don't know, the Hawks, who have a coach and front office that seem content to try to sufferpuck their way into the bottom of the playoff picture.
The Flyers nabbed the last playoff spot in the Metro by sucking all the air out of the arena. It's the same trick that Rick Tocchet pulled in Vancouver for one season. But that's all it lasted. I was curious if this is a way to set out a team to get from outside the playoffs to into them, and then move on from there to bigger and better things, i.e. competing for a Cup.
So I looked at the last five seasons, who were the bottom five teams in total Corsi, both for and against, and total xG per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Are you ready to take a trip? Let's go!
So we're going back to '21-'22 to start, right out of the pandemic. The bottom five teams in Corsi events per 60 (from worst to fifth-worst):
Buffalo
Rangers
Kraken
Blues
Coyotes
Both the Blues and Rangers made the playoffs, with the Rangers finishing second in the Metro and the Blues nabbing the third spot in the Central. The other three missed the playoffs. The following season, the Blues, Kraken, and Coyotes all finished in the bottom five of Corsi events again, with only the Kraken making the playoffs as the last wildcard. They would go on to upset the defending champion Avs in the first round.
As for the bottom five teams in xG total in '21-'22:
Seattle
Chicago
Minnesota
Nashville
Boston
The Bruins, Wild, and Preds all made the playoffs, the Preds and Bs as wildcards in their respective conferences.
To '22-'23, and the bottom five teams in Corsi events.
Vancouver
Detroit
Arizona
St. Louis
Seattle
And the worst five in xG total:
Detroit
Minnesota
LA
Seattle
Chicago
So the Kraken made the playoffs. The Kings did as well, as the third-place team in the Pacific, as they began their streak of being the warm-up act for the Oilers in the first round.
To '23-'24. The worst five teams in Corsi events:
Vancouver
Anaheim
Tampa
St. Louis
Boston
And the worst xG total teams:
Minnesota
Seattle
Anaheim
Detroit
Tampa
Vancouver finished atop the conference, Tampa made the playoffs through the Atlantic spots, as did the Bruins, and everyone else missed out.
To last season, Corsi first:
St. Louis
Chicago
Vancouver
Boston
Detroit
And the lowest xG totals:
St. Louis
Minnesota
Vancouver
Ottawa
LA
The bottom dropped out for Vancouver, who went from top of the conference to missing the playoffs. Who coached them again? I'll have to look it up. The Blues scraped into the last wildcard in the west after Jim Montgomery flipped his ways to deflate their way in. The Wild, Sens, and Kings rounded out the bottom of the playoff pictures, and everyone else missed.
To this season, first with Corsi:
Dallas
Philadelphia
St. Louis
Winnipeg
Ottawa
Then to xG:
Philadelphia
Vegas
St. Louis
Rangers
Stars
So basically, you look over this list over the past five seasons, and the teams that consistently show up at the bottom of these categories, the max you get is the bottom of the playoff picture. Any team that moved off this list into genuine Cup contention ramped up their excitement. How many teams got anywhere near a Cup on this list? This year's Stars would argue that they got a tough draw and would have, if they didn't see the Wild in Round 1. But this season's Wild aren't on this list, and are still playing.
Tampa appear a couple times, but haven't been out of the first round in four seasons. Nor have they finished above third in their division. The Sens have hung around the bottom of the playoff picture for two straight seasons, but haven't been close to winning a round.
Essentially, playing this way can bring a team into the playoffs that haven't been there recently. But it definitely looks like a step a team has to take, before moving on to a different style to win the bigger, shiny things. This is the step the Flyers and others will have to take.