Daily World Cup Newsletter - Group E Preview/USMNT Thoughts: Black Steer's Tuchus
Back in the chair this week as we look at Group E, as well as parsing out if anything mattered in the US's win over Senegal.
Germany
Should You Care? It is Germany, and the very name always demands attention. And yet, this is a pretty weird time for The Hun. They've gone out in the group in the last two World Cups. They rode home-field advantage in the last Euros to the quarterfinals, where they ran Spain to the very last minute of extra time before giving up a heartbreaker of a winner in the 119th minute. The Euros before that they were the rare Germany team to eat it to England, which would be grounds to just end Germany as a whole, usually. So they haven't really threatened winning a trophy in a decade.
This version doesn't look like ending that streak, either. There are more than solid players at every position, but not enough guys with the "power cosmic" at enough of them. One of them who should (Florian Wirtz) just came off a pretty sobering season. The other (Jamal Musiala) had an injury-plagued campaign with Munich. Serge Gnabry didn't make the post. This feels a bit like the team before the team, as there's a couple children in the squad who will be real forces in 2028 or 2030, but this will be orientation.
Do They Care? Some of that swagger, or whatever the more efficient method of swaggering is that Germans would use, is definitely out of their step coming into this tournament. There seems to be an acceptance that Deutschland isn't quite at the level of Spain, England, France, or Argentina. That doesn't mean they couldn't take a piece out of one of 'em, should they cross paths. But getting through multiple would be beyond them. German fans went through a program reset in the 2000s, which set the stage for their runs in the first half of the 2010s. They may feel they're in one again, but more comfortable with it. But don't worry, some sunburned alter drunk on Paulaner will still lecture you on everything wrong with the US. And there's not much we can say now.
Any Dudes? Plenty. Despite coming down with Anfield Malaise like everyone else, there's a reason every big club on Earth was sliding into Wirtz's DMs last summer. Musiala is another incredibly fun gadget, though he and Wirtz can end up in a lot of the same spots. Malick Thiaw in defense was one of the few bright spots for Newcastle all season. Lennart Karl and Aleksander Pavlovic, were both born after Hot Fuss's release, promise the world.
How'd They Get Here? After sneezing out some boogers onto their shirt in their qualifying opener against Slovakia, they walked the rest of the process, winning the next five games by a combined 16-1.
They Getting Out Of Here? Yeah, and not just because of the safety net of the 48-team format. But it won't be a saunter by the shore, either. Ecuador might be the most obstinate team in the whole tournament. Ivory Coast, though maybe not quite the force they were 10 or 15 years ago, are not just scenery. Curacao have, at the very least, an experienced manager, and teams with nothing to lose with a manager who's not a moron can throw the occasional wrench.
Winning the group will net a third-place team in the round of 32. Beyond that, it could be any of the Dutch, Japan, Brazil, or Morocco. That might be where it gets real itchy.
Prediction: Round of 16, but that feels like it. Thomas Muller will still be yelling somewhere out of habit and tradition.
Ecuador
Should You Care? Definitely, because here's a team that could really turn everyone else's party sour, kick over the keg, sidewalk slam some asshat through the buffet, and spill something on that hottie you were hitting on. You just might not enjoy watching them do so, because this is a team light on fireworks. In fact, there are no fireworks. Not even a fuckin' sparkler. Ecuador bring only darkness and ennui.
They only gave up five goals through 18 games of qualifying. Five. They only scored 14, and four of those came at home against Bolivia. Their last qualifier, against Argentina, saw four shots on target total between the two. The only goal came from a penalty. This kind of car-in-a-ditch event-level is what everyone should expect in this dance. But in a tournament that will probably be very weird and very hot and very sticky and very unpleasant, being Eurograde 6 is a pretty solid plan to go pretty damn far.
Do They Care? They're sniffing out a record-setting tournament for themselves, so yeah, pretty pumped. This is their fifth World Cup, they've only gotten out of the group stage once, so they could set a precedent.
Any Dudes? A few. Moisés Caicedo would get bogged down in the mud and slush of Chelsea-ness at points this season, but is still a midfield wrecker of the highest order. Enner Valencia has tennis balls on the bottom of his boots, but banged in nearly half of their goals during qualifying. Pervis Estupiñián was an incredibly fun fullback for Brighton, but that didn't quite translate to Milan this past season. But then, nothing translated at Milan this season. Piero Hincapié loves playing for teams that make everyone question the point of existence, as he plays for this national team while taking breaks from Arsenal. Oh, and Willian Pacho may have been a better defender than Marquinhos for the team that just won the Champions League for a second straight time. Getting pretty easy to see how this outfit was an iron chastity belt the past couple seasons.
How'd They Get Here? As mentioned above, by keeping everyone in a Scorpion Death Lock for 90 minutes in South American qualifying. Only Argentina and Brazil managed to beat them, both at home, and both by a pubic hair. Everyone else came out of their matches with Ecuador as if they'd just attempted to walk through a carwash.
They Getting Out Of Here? Should. This is not a vintage German team, and lack any striker they can count on. Ivory Coast is hardly a red light factory, either. Ecuador could get out of this group conceding, like, a goal. Any team this obstinate is a threat to go farther than anyone expects, as Morocco proved four years ago and Uruguay four years before that.
Prediction: Round of 16, maybe even a quarterfinal if things break right and they see a couple teams in the knockout already suffering from heatstroke. Wherever it ends, watching them will be like trying to eat a beer koozie.
Ivory Coast
Should You Care? Yeah, but maybe not as much as you did when this was the Drogba All-Stars. That said, this is the same group that won the AFCON two years ago after firing its coach MID-TOURNAMENT. So pulling rabbits is kind of their thing. They are also pretty damn obstinate, as they didn't give up a goal at all in qualifying. Nary a one. Should these group games even be televised? Children could be watching! That said, they were far more forgiving at this past winter's AFCON, where they gave up three to Egypt in their quarterfinal loss, and two to Gabon in the groups.
Do They Care? Given the way they blitzed qualifying, you'd have to say they're pretty excited.
Any Dudes? Yep. Yan Diomandé is the next new hotness coming out of RB Leipzig, so you can expect him to move the Premier League soon for gobs of money, and then get hurt a lot and score like five goals, to pay homage to Timo Werner and Xavi Simons. A tradition unlike any other! Franck Kessie is just collecting checks in Saudi Arabia now, but still does a majority of their scoring and creating. Obite N'Dicka just backstopped Roma as they qualified for the Champions League. Simon Adringa always looked like he would break out at Brighton, but it never quite happened after his first season there. He did even less than that for half a season with Sunderland, before moving to Monaco in January and lighting it up a bit. He always brightens up with his national team, though.
How'd They Get Here? Utterly trounced their qualifying group, though they weren't paired up with any other heavies. African qualifying was thinned out a bit with their additional spots and playoff system. Tunisia and Morocco also ran up +20 or better goal-differences in qualifying. It's still impressive to not give up a goal at all, though.
They Getting Out Of Here? Could, but given the miserly nature of Ecuador, if anyone's relying on third-place goal-difference to get through, it's going to be tough to balloon that in any match. All three teams will be looking to truly crack Curacao upside the head to remedy that, but that might not be a given. Have to get something out of one their games against Germany or Ecuador. If they can, their last game is against Curacao, who may already be down and out by then, and maybe they can rack up some goals if they have to.
Prediction: Third place advancers, but out at the first knockout hurdle.
Curacao
Should You Care? Removing the US, Canada, and Mexico from CONCACAF qualifying, as well as down cycles for Costa Rica and Jamaica, meant that the region produced a couple little-engine-that-could stories. Curacao is one of them, the smallest nation to ever qualify. They have just about the same population as Naperville. They're managed by Dick Advocaat, who is 78. So, lots of quirks!
They're also probably going to get crushed.
Do They Care? It's their first ever trip, and maybe the only one for a good long while, considering the three hosses will return to qualifying next time around. So they'll enjoy the party, if we can even produce one for this thing anymore.
Any Dudes? You know I'd be pretending if I said anyone, and I can't lie to you, you wondrous piece of toblerone, you.
How'd They Get Here? Didn't lose a game in the last round of qualifying, surfing matches with T&T and Jamaica with three draws and a win and then beating everyone else, while Jamaica and T&T stubbed their toe along the way. The one win against Jamaica was all the difference.
They Getting Out Of Here? Nope. They'll probably have one match that ends up closer than it should be, and given Ecuador's scoring problems, it's most likely that one. Especially if they catch Ecuador looking past them to their third game against Germany. But that doesn't mean a win or draw. Thanks for coming, move along now.
Prediction: They'll get a goal.
USA 3 - 2 Senegal 2
Sadly, I'm a slave to consistency. I mean, not in any way that actually matters, because then I wouldn't be doing this stupid shit, likely. But in the drivel I send to you on a daily basis, I would like to maintain a through line.
So I can't be the guy who says the March friendlies really don't matter all that much, or don't forecast doom in the way that some people would like to claim they do, and then stand out in the street and wave my wang about the USMNT looking far sharper on Sunday against Senegal in a 3-2 win. Yes, I can't stand on the street and wave my wang about anything, or I definitely won't be doing this stupid shit anymore, for far worse reasons. But you get the idea.
That doesn't mean we can't take a couple nuggets, and at least feel ok about them. So let's do that.
-First the not so good stuff. I can't really pretend that Senegal's give-a-shit meter was anything above "someone else's kid's birthday party" level. While the US did weave some very pretty patterns with the ball. the way they were able to slice through Senegal's midfield with ridiculous ease, is in part due to inattentiveness from the African champs (and that's what they are, I don't care what any court says). But hey, if the other team can't find a flying fuck to give, score some goals and create some chances!
-I'm not going to be convinced that Seb Berhalter can hack it without the ball at this level, and not even really with the ball, either, if it's moving in any fashion. While he did get into some good spots in attack as the late man charging in, which is his specialty, anytime Senegal created anything, it would almost assuredly be easy to spot Berhalter in the trail technique. He also can't receive the ball in traffic and not swallow his own tongue. Which is a problem for a midfielder, as they tend to, y'know, always be in traffic.
-Ok, enough negative shit. Pulisic was outstanding in his one half, and he wasn't overburdened by having to create all the attacks as well as finish a host of them. The US set out to get chances to him, and he finished two of them off (one with a can't miss low cross to Dest, scoring the other himself). The ball progressing was left to others (of which Berhalter was a part, and he did well in that department). Pulisic has enough on his plate without having to carry all the water, and this was a welcome sight.
-Ricardo Pepi was pretty electric, dropping deep from the front line to set up the first goal, then running in behind to set up the second. Balogun was no less a threat in the second half, and I don't think the US has ever had two strikers they could count on to make a difference. I'm not even sure they've had one since Deuce was around, and he wasn't even really a #9 He just had to play there.
-My hope of Alex Freeman being the breakout player for this team certainly didn't take a hit. He was on the right side of the back three, but had a unique role of being able to jump into midfield or move out wide in possession if he saw fit. He saw fit to unleash this ball for Pepi to set up the second goal:
Soccerwise
Tumescent!
Having a centerback with some license to do other stuff, responsibly, to aid ball progression is a very neat weapon. It may not be so easy against a team paying full attention, but let's run that kitten over when we get to it.
-Weston McKennie ran the show in the 2nd half. The curious part is that he did so from a #10 position. So did Pulisic. So did Malik Tillman., There is an obvious spot next to Tyler Adams in the starting 11, but Mauricio Pochettino hasn't ever put McKennie there. Gio Reyna still seems to have a hold over the entire program (to be fair, he is just about the only player in the squad that can receive the ball with defenders up his ass and hold onto it, and do something with it. That's why he keeps showing up in the squad).
We really going to start a World Cup with Berhalter next to Adams? That's some queasy shit, friendo. Maybe Paraguay and Australia don't strike Poch as teams where he has to worry about Berhalter getting tire tracks on his chest on the counter. Maybe he's right. We'll find out the hard way.
-A couple of defensive boners led to the goals against, with Antonee Robinson giving it away for the first, and then Miles Robinson and Chris Brady combining to spill their brains into the urinal for the second. The first was a bit worrying, because the midfield was so open and Berhalter had no hope of catching up while Adams filled in the backline. Any team in the World Cup can galavant through such space. Either be cleaner with the ball, or the "rest defense" positions that Adams and Berhalter or partner du jour have to be way more secure.
That's enough of that.