Free Daily World Cup Newsletter - Group F Preview: Do It For The Ace
We now pass the halfway point of our preview, where the hipster's choice to make a real run reside.
Netherlands
Should You Care? Does anyone use "Holland" anymore? That's just a thing we left behind? All right. I'm adaptable.
Anyway, the Dutch always have to be noticed, because they do just enough to make you think they're about to make a lot of noise. Then they kinda just don't. They'd be in line for a playoff banning if they played that kind of sport. They made the semis of the last Euros. I couldn't tell you anything about any of their games there, until Ollie Watkins knocked them out in injury time in said semifinal. No one ever really thought they'd win it. They beat the US in the last World Cup, though were a touch fortunate in how simple that was, then lost to Argentina on penalties when Argentina first dusted off their habit of puking up leads late. The Dutch were pretty terrible during that game, then chucked on their shaved bear in Wout Weghorst and hurled crosses at him until it worked. No one ever thought they'd win the tournament.
There is a floor with the Dutch. The ceiling isn't all that much different. It's like that floor in Being John Malkovich. They're not quite a mop, they're not quite a puppet, but man when you...so no, no one really has any idea what to make of them. Lots of really good players, no obvious weaknesses in defense or midfield, no striker that makes you think they'll catch fire. They're that person that's in every movie. International soccer's Judy Greer, though that's insulting to our Queen Judy.
Do They Care? It wasn't all that long ago that the Dutch were boning qualification for World Cups and Euros, so they don't take any appearance for granted, like other big boys might. Then again, all the big boys just have to look at Italy, a former big boy, to know that life is impermanence. It doesn't feel like the Dutch fans are really puffing their chests out about this edition, but puffing one's chest out isn't really a Dutch trait. Laying out all the reasons you shouldn't puff your chest out plainly and directly is more a Dutch thing.
Any Dudes? Plenty. Virgil van Dijk is getting pretty fucking old, and looking it at times, but is still the best defender of the past decade. Fight me. Mickey van de Ven can't skate cleanly out of the mess that Tottenham was this season, but also might be the fastest central defender in the world. A trait he leans on just a bit too heavily at times to not occasionally get burned. Frankie De Jong spent like three seasons watching Barcelona try to shove him out into the Mediterranean to get his paycheck off the books, failing, and then be part of the midfield rotation on back-to-back La Liga winners. Teun Koopmeiners was the anchor for some thrash metal Atalanta teams, went to Juventus, and like most things that go to Juventus, had most of the life drained out of him. Donyell Malen was underused at Villa, left for Roma in January, ended up scoring 104 goals for them in the second half of the season and dragged them into the Champions League spots in Serie A.
At this point I have to mention Memphis Depay, who has been stealing money from various clubs for years, cons his way back into the national team, shows up at these tournaments, you turn to your buddy and say, "He's still playing?!" and then he scores two or three goals during the tournament, before starting the cycle over again. He's somehow only 31.
How'd They Get Here? Peacefully enough, as they topped a group with Poland and then three wiffleballs. They drew with Poland twice during the campaign, and then beat everyone else 25-2.
They Getting Out Of Here? Yeah, but they could make heavier weather of it than they think. There's collapse risk at every level. van Dijk had a patchy season, and is 34. Spurs stink may not have washed off of van de Ven. Jan Paul van Hecke could sub in for the latter, but he had his own issues to close out the season with Brighton. The midfield lacks a little pepper, more so now that Xavi Simons's knee went liquid. Malen solves some issues up front, if he is going to lead the line, but he's been more shunted out wide opposite Cody Gakpo on either side of Memphis. Gakpo was a walking stubbed toe for Liverpool for most of this past season. At some point, Memphis's con man abilities will run dry. There's a sparking and spewing aspect to each part of this team. If they all connect, they could cause a meltdown.
The fact that they're managed by Ronald Koeman, as the Netherlands only ever rotate between three different managers, and Koeman could miss a match because he's stuck trying to figure out how the hotel toaster works at the buffet, and the chance of meltdown grows.
Prediction: They'll go through, but not as group winners. Finishing second would mean getting Belgium right in the face, and Belgium have spent their whole lives waiting to beat the Dutch in a World Cup.
Japan
Should You Care? Yes, because every hipster soccer fan you know, and you know one even if you don't think you do, will tell you that Japan is a real dark horse and could finally make the deep run they've teased for a while. So there's a choice. You can use that info to make fun of them when Japan snarf it, as they also have a habit of doing. Or you can get ahead of the curve, grow out your sideburns, throw on a Thin Lizzy t-shirt, and get on the Japan bandwagon. If you're reading this newsletter, you probably have a Thin Lizzy shirt already, anyway.
It's funny how men's and women's teams can mirror each other at the international level. Both of Japan's teams threatened to make real splashes at their last World Cups. You might recall the women's team actually kicked the ever loving shit out of eventual champ Spain in the group stages in 2023. The men's side beat both Germany and Spain in the groups in Qatar. Both had some real mojo heading into the knockouts of their respective World Cups. And both absolutely got afraid of their own shadows in the knockouts, and lost in a Round of 16 they really had no business losing in. This men's team lost to Croatia, who were old and not that impressive, and had Japan gone at them like they had Germany or Spain, they could have easily made their first World Cup quarterfinal. If Japan actually believe in themselves, that could be waiting for them this time. If they continue to act like they're trespassing at the business end of the tourney, they'll get what they always get.
Do They Care? Sure, they've been building up the national team program, and they are getting closer and closer to their full coming out at the debutantes ball.
Any Dudes? Some, though the charm of Japan to most is the collective. Ao Tanaka is a pretty smooth and sassy midfielder for Leeds. Ayase Ueda just poured in 25 goals for Feyenoord, with the admitted everyone-score-in-the-Dutch-league tax. Daichi Kamada is a linchpin in the middle for Crystal Palace. Takefuso Kubo was a nifty winger for Sociedad, though that status is a year or two in the past rather than coming into this tournament. We could write the same thing for Hidemasa Morita, though at Sporting Lisbon instead of Sociedad. Daizen Maeda was a major cog for Celtic as they stole another Scottish title from Hearts.
How'd They Get Here? Mostly walked their qualifying group, losing only once, which was away to Australia. Their only other blemishes were home draws with Saudia Arabia and the home match with Australia, then winning the other seven games.
They Getting Out Of Here? Yes, and they may sneak winning the group to do it. Playing in oppressive heat and humidity shouldn't phase them as much as others, though most of these guys have been playing for years in Europe, and may not have quite the same sustainability as they would coming straight from Japan. They're also getting a touch old, as Kubo is the only regular under 25. That could be a problem, or it could instill the sense of urgency that they need to attack each portion of this tournament. More importantly, Japan have shown flexibility. They can defend and counter viciously, but they are technically skilled enough to carry games with more of the ball when they have to, too. The Dutch seem absolutely gettable for a 1-1 draw or even a Japan win. Sweden might actually stink, and Tunisia could be anything. They won the group at the last World Cup, after all.
The knockout draw is tough for this group. The winner doesn't get a third-place team, and that could mean seeing Morocco or even Brazil in the Round of 32. The former would mean Japan having to take a game to an opponent with everything on the line, and they haven't shown that set of marbles yet. The latter would allow them to do the counterattack thing more, which they're more comfortable doing, but they have to have the belief to do it.
Japan are more than capable of doing it, and really fucking up the bracket. Do they think they are, is the real question.
Prediction: They're making noise, and they're sending at least one big name home. Maybe more.
Sweden
Should You Care? As long as we're getting hipster, there's always one team that absolutely barfs and belches their way through qualifying, barely gets their hands on the dock before being swept downriver, and then actually has a good tournament out of nowhere. Facing one's own immortality can be quite the sporting aphrodisiac. Maybe regular aphrodisiac too, I'm told. I'd ask Michael Hutchence about it, but
Sweden certainly "aced" the first part of that equation. They didn't win a game in their qualifying group, losing four and drawing two. But thanks to UEFA's convoluted safety net, where a whole other competition (The Nations League) counted toward making the playoffs in qualifying, Sweden knew the whole time that they would slide into those playoffs, even as they were getting their brains beaten in during the group phase. So there's an argument that after two or three games, when Sweden's campaign was already pretty much fucked, they could just quiet quit and wait for the two games in the playoffs that would decide their fate.
If that was the plan, it worked, as they beat Ukraine and Poland to qualify. It's also a bit four-dimensional chess. They might actually just be cheeks.
Do They Care? Well...
https://www.instagram.com/p/DWmPn-Wkp9e/
So maybe a little.
Any Dudes? Feels like they're just a touch short on dudes, at least for Sweden. Viktor Gyokeres scored that goal above, and he was either an overpriced and overrated blunt object for Arsenal, or exactly what they wanted as a change of pace from Kai Havertz and the rate was just the rate. Truth is probably somewhere in between. Alexander Isak used to be a dude, until he showed up in Liverpool this season without any legs. Those two also play the same position, so probably not together. There's a few guys here who are just a but below Dude-level. Yasin Ayari is a fun little midfielder for Brighton. Benjamin Nygren just tore up the Scottish Premier League. Lucas Bergvall will have 40 great minutes for Tottenham, when all of his parts are attached, in a sea of 500 minutes doing nothing.
How'd They Get Here? As described above, they spent all of the first phase of qualifying getting thwacked around like Kurt Russell at the end of Death Proof. They were able to save themselves with two wins in the playoffs. They had to fire their coach to get there, as Graham Potter took over. You may remember Potter as the original patsy in Chelsea's current ownership/trading company. Then as the guy who got West Ham off to such a dick-kick of a start this season that they got relegated from it. Potter had success in the Swedish league before, so he had more credit in the bank there. Is he actually a good manager? Or just the product of Brighton's superior scouting system? No one fucking knows, and this tournament probably won't tell us, either.
They Getting Out Of Here? Tricky bet. The Dutch and Japanese are almost certainly better. The defense here doesn't really have a tentpole. The midfield would be described as functional more than anything else, which is a kind way of saying they can't really pass. They just played a friendly yesterday, and got utterly clubbed by Norway. Their two best strikers probably can't play at the same time, and who knows who's getting either the ball. They catch a break in starting with Tunisia, which could give them something of a platform to goof something against the other two. Or it could set them up for a complete filling of their shorts.
Prediction: At best a third-place finish that doesn't get them through.
Tunisia
Should You Care? Eh. It's hard to completely ignore a team that didn't give up a goal in qualifying, even as easy as their group was in African qualifying. Going 22-0 in goals through 10 games is a football in the groin. As we've seen, though, African qualifying did tend to lend itself to this sort of thing.
The rest of their record isn't that inspiring. They went out in the Round of 16 of AFCON, losing to Mali on penalties. They only other "real" team they played in that tourney was Nigeria in the groups, and they lost to them, too. Tunisia feels like a team from Africa that's a cut below Morocco or Senegal or Ivory Coast.
They may not just be a parked bus and a badge, though. They outplayed Austria yesterday in warm-up contest in Wien, though they lost 1-0. Again, it's going to be a goofy World Cup.
Do They Care? Efforting...efforting...
Any Dudes? Short on dudes, for sure. Rani Khedira has been a buzzy midfielder for Union Berlin for years, and they can be a pain in the ass for Bundesliga teams. Montassar Talbi is the only player to start all 10 qualifying games for them. He plays for Lorient. That's all I got for ya.
How'd They Get Here? Can't argue with their work, as they only drew one of 10 qualifying matches, winning the other nine. There were no other heavyweights, or even welterweights, in that group. But you can only play whom you're assigned.
They Getting Out Of Here? Chance. Japan can get flaky, and never rest well when they're favored. Could nab a draw there. Sweden have some serious issues, so they could get a result there. But even finishing third requires a win, and even that might be enough. They also don't have a lot of firepower that could boost the goal-difference needed to stand out amongst the third-place teams to go through. Their scores are probably going to be pretty binary, lots of 1s and 0s.
Prediction: The Bears offense we used to know, three and out.