Lost In America - Faces Come Out Of The Rain

As we sit on the precipice of the whole thing, some thoughts on this nervous day.

As I've said previously during the group previews, this is going to be a weird World Cup. The 48-team format might flatten out the weirdness a bit, because any big boy that finds itself choking on a chicken bone gets a bigger safety net (I know a net wouldn't help a choking victim but just shut the fuck up for a sec, ok?). But the format won't completely erase it.

The biggest reason for that notion is that this tournament starts a mere 12 days after the Champions League final, and less than three weeks after most of the European season ended. Usually, those gaps are a week or longer. That doesn't sound like much, but it makes a difference. Especially if that gap is even larger for the end of domestic seasons.

Last time the World Cup started this much on the ass of the European club season was 2002, which had to start earlier to duck monsoon season in the Far East. That tournament started with France losing to Senegal, going out in the group stage, along with a loaded Argentina side, South Korea and Turkiye making the semifinals, the USMNT actually making the quarters (and maybe deserving to go to the semis?) and two pretty unimpressive sides in the final, as both Brazil and Germany weren't exactly vintage, and yet they found their way to the end.

Throw in the heat and travel, and it's a recipe for the peculiar. The travel is going to be a real shock for some of these teams. Most of these guys aren't used to flights more than an hour or two. This is filled with three and four hour flights. It will be a drain.

So what does that mean, exactly? Well, at least one favorite is going to have to eat it far earlier than expected to make this tournament officially WEIRD. Let's start with Argentina, the holders. They have won the last two Copa Americas, sandwiching them around their World Cup in Qatar. That's usually been the extent of dominance any team has been able to manage in recent times. That France team in 2002 was coming off a back-to-back World Cup and European championship. Spain won two Euros and a World Cup from 2008-2012, then choked on vomit in Brazil in '14 (we don't know whose vomit. You can't dust for vomit).

Germany went finalist-semifinalist-semifinalist-winner from the 2008 Euros through the 2014 World Cup. They made the semis in Euro '16, and then haven't been a factor since. But they're Germany, and they just do things like that.

An early exit for Argentina is definitely on the cards. This midfield is just not running at the level it was four years or even two years ago, which might isolate Messi and the other attackers. Whatever team is first to really go at Argentina might find more joy than they expected, just because they can pass through there so easily.

-Another favorite I'm starting to look a little sideways at is France, if only because the noise out of there is decidedly French, as everyone on the team seems to hate Kylian Mbappe, who has been made captain for some reason. Ousmane Dembele, who has two more Champions League medals and one more Ballon D'or than Mbappe, is already in his ear about actually trying when France doesn't have the ball.

France has had to bend their defensive system around Mbappe's laziness/inattentiveness, being pretty damn passive. But Dembele, Olise, Doue, Barcola, Cherki all come from teams where they actively try to get up the ass of their opponent, and thrive in the chaos that can create. It feels like they're all starting to wonder why they, immensely talented and accomplished players themselves, have to bend around Mbappe, who hasn't really accomplished all that much more than they have. Is he going to do to France what he's done to Madrid? France has self-immolated before, not all that long ago at Euro 2020. They kept it together in Qatar, but all those players listed above are now far more renowned, and might not take to being passengers on the Mbappe Express quite as easily.

Which brings me to Brazil. There is this idea that Carlo Ancelotti is some sort of superstar/giant ego whisperer, and I guess there's merit to that. What Ancelotti has done throughout his managerial career is have his team finish exactly where the squad's status says they should. Give him the most expensive team in that league, and he'll win it. Give him the eighth most expensive, as he got at Everton, and they'll finish eighth. No Ancelotti team ever crashes through the floor that has been built. But trying to find a team that performed over their heads under his guidance, you'd struggle.

So really, it depends on how good you think this Brazil is. The defense could be really good, between Gabriel and Marquinhos. The attack could obviously be spicy, with Vinicius and Raphinha, perhaps orbiting around Igor Thiago. Neymar is too old now to demand the team be shaped around him, which got them literally nothing. Though whether Neymar knows that, we'll see.

But Ancelotti teams do exactly what you feel like they will. They feel like a quarterfinal exit, so that's what they'll be.

-On the other side, if a couple big teams are going to end up face first in a sidewalk puddle, then some underdogs are going far to replace them. The easy choices are Morocco and Japan, as the former has already done it once and the latter has been everyone's choice for a couple tournaments now. All possible, if Morocco are even a dark horse anymore.

Turkiye is a team I keep looking at. Their midfield looks especially tasty, with Yildiz, Guler, Çalhanoğlou being a hub of creativity. I'd feel better if they had one striker they could trust to bang in the chances, but it's not necessary. Morocco didn't have one four years ago. Croatia didn't have one. It's something that can be faded.

-The dark horse everyone loves is Norway, and let's face it, they do have the best shirt.

But usually, the first-timer that everyone falls in love with ends up finding a rake a lot quicker than anyone expects. It's not an easy stage to master at first asking.

Ok, to the USMNT. The two warm-ups were encouraging, but they were totally different types of games than they will open with. That space they cut through in midfield against Senegal isn't going to be there against Paraguay or Australia. While they moved the ball around nicely against Germany, it's not like they opened up chance after chance. They scored off a corner. Their best chances were when getting in behind Germany, which might not be possible against Paraguay and Australia. It's hard to know what they'll do in games where they'll dominate the ball and have to open up tight spaces on the edge of the other box. It's not something that can be simulated in friendlies, because no team is going to defend like their families are hostages like they would in the World Cup (perhaps an iffy metaphor for this particular one).

I'm curious if Mauricio Pochettino isn't thinking about not starting Tyler Adams against Australia. He absolutely cannot get suspended for any game, especially the knockouts. He shouldn't be needed against the Socceroos, you'd think. He definitely will against Turkiye. If he can get through the Paraguay match without a yellow, not start against Australia, then he can be full tilt boogie for the Turks while not dancing around a suspension for the first knockout game. Starting with the third match, he's basically the most important player on the team. There's also some question whether he can play every match, health-wise. He's not exactly known for physical sturdiness.

A heater from a forward would cure a lot of ills. The US were on the verge of a Balogun heater in Copa America, he scored in the first two games, but wasted it. That's one barometer we can all use.

It's strange, judging international tournaments for years-long conclusions. Whether or not the USMNT is "successful" hinges, basically, on whether they win the R16 game or not. But so many things can happen in just one game. Look at their last major tournament. One sending off, and the whole program changed in the next year. If Weah doesn't get sent off, the US probably still beats Panama. They do no worse than draw. Totally changes how they'd play Uruguay. Probably make the quarters and lose. How does the whole program look then?

So many things can happen in one game. A dodgy penalty, a goofy red card, a VAR ref going rogue, a torrential downpour, extreme heat that erases any tactics, one deflection. But that's the game, I s'pose. I keep trying to talk myself into the US making the quarters. It's so draw-dependent. I can't quite get there. But we'll circle back when the time comes.

-So, schedule from here. Tomorrow morning I'll have a Day 1 preview for you. From there, every morning, maybe save Sundays, I'll wrap up the previous day and preview the upcoming matches that day. Except for this Sunday for sure, as some travel plans will keep me from seeing all of Saturday's action. Forgive me, but you'll see why.