Lost In America - Free, Daily World Cup Newsletter: Day 4 - Defense Only Takes You So Far

The first weekend is in the books. A couple teams learned that they can't always blockade their way to three points.

Germany 7 - 1 Curacao

There will be plenty in a hurry to decry that this is what happens when a World Cup expands beyond the amount of good teams to fill the slots. But these kinds of drubbings happen all the time, and Germany is something of a specialist in them. They crushed Saudi Arabia like this in 2002, and also fustigated tiny fish Brazil by the same scoreline in '14, as you may recall. One game does not a definitive narrative make, no matter how often the Lalas-ites try to make it so.

Curacao's plan, such as it was, was to try and keep it tight around their own box, and then get the ball forward as quickly as they could. Nerves probably played a role, but in Florian Writz, Jamal Musiala, and Kai Havertz, Germany come equipped with the exact magic triangle that's specifically designed to pick locks and cut red wires in the tightest of spaces. Nathaniel Brown from left-back and Leroy Sane from the right wing keep things stretched. To get past a determined and bunkered defense, a team has to do both. This is why Turkiye struggled against Australia, as they didn't have the width.

This was yet another game where the division into four quarters really made a difference. Curacao had tied the game at 1-1 right before the first hydration break, in a closed-roof stadium, and the entire places was off the hinges and Germany were a bit dazed. But instead of having to figure it out on the fly, they got a three-minute break to let the atmosphere die down, reset mentally, and start a whole new game. Germany wins this anyway, almost assuredly, but these breaks are halting organically-built momentum and changing game states so Fox can get some more ads in.

Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan

Probably the best game of the tourney so far. While I unloaded both six-shooters on Portugal coach Roberto Martinez, I probably should have saved a little ammo for Netherlands manager Ronald Koeman. He has been a gasbag for pretty much his entire coaching career. He can certainly take some blame for the Dutch losing out on two points they very well might need.

After taking a 2-1 lead, Koeman hauled off Ryan Gravenberch, Cysencio Summerville, and Donyell Malen, which was pretty much his entire attacking outlet. It only invited Japan to have the ball, come at them, and produce some chances that eventually led to an equalizer. Hugging the ropes isn't a great strategy when one's ahead on points.

The Dutch might have been a touch lucky to take two separate leads as it was, given that they didn't create much. They only put up 0.76 xG, and just 10 shots. Their midfield might produce some nifty touches here and there, but neither Gravenberch nor Reinders are really great passers (Gravenberch's delightful cross to van Dijk for the opener aside). Most of their creation comes from out wide, which Koeman then stripped them of for the last 20 minutes or so, basically taking them from "cake or death" to just "or death."

Japan were also a little lucky, as they were pretty unambitious in the first half. They've always tended to be wait-and-strike against the biggest teams, and it's what got them wins against Spain and Germany four years ago. But there does have to be a "strike" part. Three shots in a half is not "strike." It's barely hot breath. They got a little more brave in the second half, because they had to. There's also enough here for them to go at any opponent, but don't count on it. For all the manager's bit talk about winning this summer, they have yet to prove they've got the tires to take it to the best teams.

The new format here has already made a difference in the end of some games. Both the Dutch and Japan came to realize that 2-2 was good enough, as did Morocco on Saturday when tied with Brazil. One win in their last two games will see either team through. Whereas in the old format, teams might have been more compelled to just win a group or try and get a stranglehold on second. Four points isn't enough for second, usually, but it will be for a qualifying third place spot. Teams are cashing out already for a point.

Ivory Coast 1 - 0 Ecuador

Ecuador came into this with the boogeyman of their defensive record, surrendering just five goals in South America's song-that-never-ends qualifying process. But in a short tournament, it only takes a breach or two over three games to alter the outlook completely. That breach can just be "dude who runs really goddamn fast." Ivory Coast's Yan Diomande is that dude who can run really fast. He tore Ecuador open from the right wing. Sometimes there's no answer for a lightning bolt. He got loose one last time in the 90th minute, and now Ecaudor's tournament is borked-adjacent.

Ecuador have an issue now. They might have to get something out of their game with Germany, as even a paddling of Curacao might not be enough. And "paddling" isn't really what they do. They only scored more than two goals in game in qualifying once, and that was home to Bolivia. Curacao may be worse than Bolivia, but it's a big ask.

Sweden 5 -1 Tunisia

Sweden got to roll out its two strikers at once, which few teams do anymore. The most surprising thing was the snap Alexander Isak's game had to it. Even when Isak made it onto the field for Liverpool this season, which was rare enough, he looked like he simply couldn't get there. Slow to react, no spring, a half-step behind. None of that was evident against Tunisia, though Tunisia probably aren't up to Premier League standards.

Helping matters was Sweden getting an early goal, which Isak created with a run in behind the defense, causing Tunisia's keeper Chamakh to go on his own personal geocaching expedition. From there, Isak and Gyokeres could romp into space on the counter or off a press, and that's where Isak thrives. Let him make runs against a jumbled and scrambling defense amongst chaos, and he'll wreck some shit. Also helps when Chamakh's attempt to stop his shot looked like Jason Giambi at first base. Not a great night for the Tunisian goaler, to say the least.

Dav 5 Preview

Spain vs. Cape Verde (12pm ET) - The buzz is Lamine Yamal is healthy and ready to go, but don't look for him to get anywhere near the full 90. There's no need.

Belgium vs. Egypt (3pm ET) - Game of the day, though Egypt might not be all that good behind their front two of Marmoush and Salah, and the latter might still be cooked after all his touchdown dancing on Arne Slot's grave. If Belgium can get Tielemans and Onana to do all of De Bruyne's running, allowing De Bruyne to do a Pirlo/Modric tribute, they could run it up a bit.

Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay (6pm) - The hydration breaks might end up an opportunity for all of us to watch the Uruguay players tune out manager Marcelo Bielsa in real time.

Iran vs. New Zealand (9pm) - Whatever interest there is for this one is about nothing that will happen on the field. Los Angeles will likely give the Iranian team a rousing reception, which will be the story. Past that, with so many goddamn games already and so many goddamn games to come, you might need to get your own hydration breaks where you can.