NHL Season Previews - #14-#12: But I Sat Next To Him, And I Studied Him
As we hotfoot through the league, we move onto some teams that aren't quite Cup contenders, but are next to the Cup contenders, and perhaps if absolutely everything broke right, they could make a run into late May. One of the teams here did that just last season.
#14) Boston Bruins ('25-'26 record: 45-27-10 100 points)
The Bruins are an eye of the beholder team. If you're a Boston agnostic, and why wouldn't you be in general because really, fuck that place, you see them as PDO-surfing dweebs who will get found out in the Blood & Guts match of the Atlantic Division. Their 10.6 shooting-percentage and .916 SV% at 5-on-5 made for the second-highest PDO in the league, and that can be hard to repeat.
If you're reguarly decked out in Black & Gold, first of all you probably got drunk with me in college, and second you would argue that Jeremy Swayman always guarantees a high save-percentage, Michael Dipietro is one of the hotter goalie prospects around, so there won't be a dropoff on the nights Swayman takes off. David Pastrnak is a top-three sniper in the league. While others may scoff at Morgan Geekie's 20%+ shooting-percentage, last season was the second in a row he topped that mark. Maybe he just buries chances at that rate? So yeah, maybe the Bs just score at a high rate because that's what they are.
What isn't really up for debate is that the Bruins are very weak down the middle, just about the worst spot to have a creamy underbelly. Elias Lindholm is approaching toast. Pavel Zacha was absolutely a BABIP-surfer last season, and likely won't come within roaming charges of 30 goals again. That's a lot to pin on Fraser Minten. There's also James Hagens, who is a center but the Bs seem awfully hesitant to introduce him to a full NHL season from the middle. They really should.
The Bs are also a touch light on the blue line. Charlie McAvoy brings near-Norris level play on the top pairing, but any bottom four that has Nikita Zadorov on it I'm going to put the "Suckfest" label on. Hampus Lindholm just hasn't really ever felt at home here, even though it made all the sense in the world when he showed up. It's not enough to be a really aggressive team attacking-wise, nor does it feel water-tight defensively.
Which is why Swayman is so important, as he cleans up a lot of those messes. The Bs brought JJ Peterka back to the Atlantic after a one-season sojourn in Utah, so there's plenty of scoring on the wings with Pasta, Geekie, Peterka, and Mittelstadt. If Minten and Hagens can turn over the center position away from Lindholm and Zacha, the Bs will be onto something serious. If they can't, they're probably a hanging curve for a team with center depth in the first round, if they can even get that far.
Best Case Scenario: Minten and Hagens are 1-2 by the holidays, and the Bruins have one of the better top-sixes in the league. Swayman continues to be just below the Vezina waters, or he is an outright candidate, and Dipietro seamlessly moves into the backup role as a rookie. Any hiccup from Tampa or Florida and an automatic spot is live.
Worst Case Scenario: The two kids aren't ready for major responsibilities in the pivot, and Lindholm continues to decompose. The blue line gets exposed below McAvoy, Dipietro can't keep Swayman to the amount of starts he thrives with and the latter gets overworked, some percentages flatten, and they're scrapping around the bottom of the wildcard.
#13) Edmonton Oilers ('25-'26 record: 41-30-11 92 points)
Probably won't do anyone in Northern Alberta's heart-rate much good to read that this outfit, in such a pivotal season, aren't a top tier Cup contender. But I'm only the messenger, I don't make the rules, and this is the same collection of addled rodeo clowns that barely scraped by in the Pacific last season and then got their clock cleaned by Anaheim. Except they might have a dumber coach this time, and a coach that is definitely more likely to blow the whole thing to shards.
If you wanted to describe the Oilers as the ultimate floor team, it would make a ton of sense. Because with McDavid and Draisaitl on board, there's only so bad that they can be. Especially in a division that's still as silly as the Pacific, it would be really hard for them to slip out of the playoffs. The Sharks may have something to say about that, but you'd really have to squint.
Last year's edition was mostly undone by the league's worst goaltending, but how exactly is that getting any better? They're still rolling Tristan Jarry out there, and Devon Levi, while Freddie Andersen gets healthy. But when has Fab Five Freddie ever "fixed" anything? It would be hard for the goaltending to be as bad as last season, and even being just "not good" instead of "an abortion" might be enough for the Oilers to improve. But it's a rickety bridge to base a plan off of, that's for sure.
The rest of the roster is just a year older, without being all that different. When does true decomposition come for Nugent-Hopkins, and Hyman, and Ekholm? The Oilers need all of these guys to be top line/pairing players, and they're all 33 and above with some serious mileage.
The Oilers will argue that beefing it in Round 1 will give their players a rest they have needed, and it had better, because #97 and #29 still have to do everything. There really isn't a genuine puck-mover at the back. Evan Bouchard is only a weapon when the puck is already in the offensive zone. They've swapped out Nurse for Connor Murphy. Murphy is solid enough in his own zone taking dungeon shifts, but he won't help with any transition. Maybe he can help open up Jake Walman, instead of Walman having to mop up the puddles of urine that Nurse left around every night. But that's wishcasting.
None of that accounts for if, or when, most of the team wants to knife Mike Babcock in his sleep. Draisaitl and McDavid will hold down that fort as long as they can, as they're the ones who OK'd this shenanigan, but that won't make for a very comfortable room. That would be one thing if Babcock was actually worth the risk, but what about his work with the Leafs suggest that he is? And now it's years later, and the game is different. Babcock's resume still consists of one Cup and one runner-up with a roster rife with Hall of Famers, and two gold medals with a Team Canada that Boris Badenov couldn't have fucked up.
Put on top of that everyone walking on eggshells, knowing that a true balls-up is going to have McDavid aggressively eying the exit door. Which will set the organization back a decade. It sounds like too much is bubbling to not spill out all over the stove.
Best Case Scenario: The usual McDavid-Draisailt hero act, something of a revival from either Levi or Jarry before Andersen gets back and he's serviceable too, and RNH, Hyman, and Ekholm can hold off the aging curve just a little longer after most of a summer off. A soft division keeps the #1 seed in the Pacific as a possibility.
Worst Case Scenario: Babcock has everyone miserable by the end of training camp, the summer wasn't enough of a break, the goaltending soils itself again, and the Oilers are barely scrapping for a playoff spot at all while McDavid starts checking out real estate listings in Salt Lake City or Buffalo or Montreal or Anaheim.
#12) Vegas Golden Knights ('25-'26 record: 39-26-17 95 points)
Every goddamn year, I expect this to be the one where this Knights cycle comes to an end and they can get to being the welcoming vacation spot for visiting fans that they were destined to be. They're not falling off the map this season, but it does feel like something is turning. They were saved last season by the trampoline playground that was the Pacific, and then Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar being hurt. That all get found out in the Final, where after the Canes came to terms with the stage, they pretty much waxed the Knights.
The Knights don't come into this campaign with any new toys, which is usually their thing. They lost Dorofeyev, which only makes them older. They'll say having William Karlsson for the whole season will balance that out, but he'll turn 34 halfway through the season.
The goaltending still sucks, whatever few week spasm Carter "Charm School" Hart was able to produce in the playoffs. The defense is older and getting slower, and handing Rasmus Andersson a bunch of cash isn't going to make him any less liable to blow off his own toes nightly.
There's still enough know-how though to remain competent, if not competent-plus. Eichel, Marner, Stone, Howden, it would be hard for them to suck. But an aging team coming off a Final run with iffy goaltending...seems like a recipe for some backing up. The Pacific can be quite the net for a team like this, as there aren't three teams ready to take the automatic playoff spots from them. At least not all at once. But a first-round exit wouldn't feel like just a reset, but an indication of where things are headed.
Best Case Scenario: The vets still have juice left, and Eichel and Marner go for 90-point seasons again. Stone stays healthy enough for most of the season, and is close to peak for the playoffs. The goaltending doesn't collapse, and the Knights can partake in the mid-off that the Pacific might become.
Worst Case Scenario: Stone is hurt, other guys get hurt, the goalie thud, the defense looks its age and Theodore can't buffet it the way he has in the past. The Sharks get spiky, and the Knights are lunging for even a wildcard spot.