NHL Season Previews - #2 and #1: Top Of The Pops
We finally get to the end of it, and somehow, they're both out East.
Roster projections from PuckPedia.com
#2 Buffalo Sabres ('25-'26 record: 50-23-9 109 points)
Most projections are down on the Sabres. Tage Thompson moving back to center doesn't really excite, however long it lasts, because he's not the all-conquering-monster-roaming-the-countryside #1 that exists elsewhere in the division. Your Points, or Suzukis, or Matthewses, or Barkovs, what have you. The goalies are still a question, which is why the Sabres have been front and center of the Hellebuyck discussions. There are injury worries up and down the lineup, and already Samuelsson and Zellweger are banged up.
Here's what I see: A team where the only player over 30 who matters is Jason Zucker, and he's firmly on the fourth line. Everyone outside of Thompson can get a little better than they were. I have a hunch that Helenius will slide back into the middle at some point during the season, moving Thompson back to his preferred wing, where he's at least a highest-level scorer, if not a premier play-driver. Zach Benson and Josh Doan have every chance to get better than they were. Zellweger may thrive under Lindy Ruff instead of being Joel Quenneville's chosen whipping boy. Dahlin and Samuelsson might be the best pairing this side of Makar-Toews.
The goalies may not sparkle, but they're not the disaster that some are making them out to be to justify the heated calls for Hellebuyck. Luukkonen is 27, just entering his prime as a goalie, and was worth 10.5 GSAx last season. That's not a dizzying total, but it's hardly an embarrassing one. Two of his three seasons as a split starter have seen him put up a .910. That's more than enough. Maybe this spot is a problem if Alex Lyon collapses back to his drifter status, but he's also mostly been at least a reasonable goalie in the NHL. As long as Buffalo isn't counting on any more than 30 starts or so from him, it should be fine.
This is about as deep of a team as you can find, with three lines that can hurt an opponent. If Zellweger can make good on any of the promise he does have on the second pairing, this is the rare team that can trust three pairs. They also got a taste for it last season, winning a playoff series at first asking, and pretty much clobbering the Bruins once they got to terms with the assignment. Benson reached Ulf Samuelsson levels of bile and ire in The Hub during it. They lost a coin-flip to the Habs in the second round.
Counting on this much youth has its pitfalls, but it also has the most boom-potential possible.
Best Case Scenario: ULP is steady in net, all the young forwards take a half-step forward at least, they score for fun, Dahlin is a Norris finalist again, Zellweger thrives in a no-pressure role on the third pairing, and they're right back at the top of the Atlantic with the KeyBank Center becoming Thunderdome again in the spring.
Worst Case Scenario: The kids collapse under actual expectations, Luukkonen and Lyon can't hold down the fort in net, injuries once again derail too many on the roster, and they're scraping just to get wildcard spot out of this hellmouth of a division.
Or they trade for Hellebuyck, gut the depth that makes them special, and watch as he actually isn't all that good, just as he wasn't last season. Or he does his usual collapse in the playoffs. Either or.
#1 Carolina Hurricanes ('25-'26 record: 53-22-7 113 points)
Funny how perspective can shift. Before last June, the Canes were treated something like a fluffer. They'll get you to a certain point, but then the real professionals would take it from there when stuff really started to matter. But now, after basically romping through four rounds last spring, this is a team that has four 110+ point seasons in the last five, two conference final appearances, and now a Cup. Which makes them certainly the gold standard in the Metro, and right next to Florida in the East and probably league as a whole.
So we can't sit here and say they can't win with that goaltending, because they just did. We can't say Sebastien Aho can't be the #1 center on a winner, because he just was. We can't say Jordan Staal can't matter this much on a team hoping to do anything serious, because he just did.
What we can do is pencil in this team for another 110+ point regular season and a couple rounds in the playoffs.
The only variable we have with them is how they'll react to playing into mid-June for the first time. Especially with the early start to this season, no Cup champ would have had less of a break than the Canes will. Considering how high-octane their system requires them to be, this might be a bigger concern than anyone is admitting.
But this is where the Metro comes to the rescue. The Canes could float through a good portion of this season, and still run a 20-4-4 record in the division or something like it without even raising their heart rate (they went 20-4-1 last season in the Metro).
Seth Jarvis will miss some time, but should be back midseason and ready to go for the playoffs. Freddie Andersen has left for pastures colder (Edmonton) but the guy who finished off the run is still here, Brandon Bussi. Maybe this is finally the season that Piotr Kotchetkov seizes the job full-time, like the Canes have been waiting for. Or maybe they trade for Hellebuyck while somehow giving up nothing, because that's their way. Your weekly reminder that Eric Tulsky interviewed for the Hawks GM job.
Maybe age is finally a factor. Slavin, Walker, Chatfield, Hall, Ehlers, Staal, Martinook are all 30 or over. But that could be balanced by continued evolutions from Stankoven, Blake, Svechnikov, and even Jarvis when he returns. The Canes are a known known at this point.
Best Case Scenario: Running it all back, the goalies are fine, and a Metro Division title sets up a relatively easy run back to the conference final after whatever wildcard comes out of the Atlantic has nothing left from chasing that spot down in the first place.
Worst Case Scenario: The crease becomes a quagmire, the toll from last spring's run is hard to shake off, and the defense starts to show its age a bit...which means just 105 points an an easy Metro title. But leaves them vulnerable to whatever snarling beast is the fifth-team in the Atlantic. Especially if it's a been-pacing-ourselves-all-along Panthers outfit.
All The Previews!
#32-30: Vancouver, Seattle, Chicago
#29-27: Calgary, Rangers, San Jose
#26-24: Detroit, Winnipeg, Islanders
#23-21: Toronto, Nashville, St. Louis
#20-18: Columbus, Philadelphia, L.A.
#17-15: Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Ottawa
#14-12: Boston, Edmonton, Vegas
#11-9: Anaheim, Utah, Washington