Daily World Cup Newsletter - Group D Preview: Move Up Starsky, Suck on Kojak
We come home in our trip around the groups. The vibes are...not great.
Brief note for everyone before we get started. Ghost doesn't seem to have a "free tier" as I thought they would, which means I'm still figuring out how I can email the World Cup newsletter to just those who want it. For now, I'm sending it to everyone. Eventually, I'll send out emails with just the links to whatever you want, to avoid sending out two emails a day. Not even your mother emails you twice a days. I'm working on it folks, I swear!
Let's get it...
United States
I'm going to eschew the format I've used for the first 12 teams to go a little more freeform for the USMNT, as I got thoughts. The vibes heading into the next couple weeks are... maybe not rancid, but they can see rancid from where they are. From the last two friendly results (losing to Belgium and Portugal by a combined 34-1, or so it felt), to the form of of its best player, to the pretty weird squad that was announced, and the "fuck you trust me" manner of the announcement from the manager, any US fan is scrambling to find a rock to cling to in the rapids of pessimism. "Rapids Of Pessimism" being an underrated A Place To Bury Strangers album, of course.
We can try to sift through some of it. The friendlies can be tossed out, for the most part. It's always hard to know how much anyone cares, and even if they do care, efforts are still reserved due to being placed at the end of their club seasons. There are just different priorities at that time of year. Though not giving the full amount of fucks may have cost Aidan Morris and Tanner Tessman places in the World Cup squad, which we'll get to.
Christian Pulisic's form is a problem, no question. He hasn't scored since Christmas. He has two assists in the same time. Only some of that can be attributed to his AC Milan team falling apart as if it was built by ACME. Some of it can be explained by having to play through some injuries to try and save his collapsing team. Even with those, however, the US's best player being butt for months is...discouraging. And Pulisic having the tendency to go "LEROY JENKINS!" is a problem when he's going well. If he tries that shit while he's low on confidence and feel, it's going to look like the drunkest asshole at your company Christmas party trying to get the dance floor going.
To the squad. It's fuckin' odd, there's no question. It's light in the midfield, especially deep in midfield. What we've seen from Pochettino during his time as manager is that, with the ball, he wants a box midfield, whether he's playing three centerbacks or two. Two deep lying midfielders, behind two #10s. There's no second deep midfielder here. Not one that you'd trust, anyway. Seb Berhalter just isn't up to this level, at least not defensively, and not working himself out of traffic with the ball. If you're asking what else there is, other than freekicks, motherfucker I can't help you! Cristian Roldan probably isn't up to it either, though he comes with more gnaw-your-nuts-off mentality than Berhalter. Weston McKennie is better used farther forward, but seems the most likely candidate.
I'm going to take a guess here. Seeing as how the US's first two games are against Paraguay and Australia, two teams that will just allow the Yanks to have the ball and dare them to break through, maybe Poch doesn't think he'll need a second defensive midfielder? McKennie as more of a #8 makes sense, it's what he's done most of his career and for the national team. But who else? Pulisic isn't a midfielder. Reyna isn't, either, and he can't play more than 20 minutes. Zendejas is a winger. If they were going to line up in a 4-3-3, it's hard to figure out that middle "3." Perhaps the"box" is Adams and McKennie behind Tillman and Pulisic, with some combo of Weah/Dest/Robinson doing the work out wide. But that feels like it could get pretty crowded in the middle.
It's also a risk to not have as much cover ahead of a defense that is hardly reminding anyone of the walls of Troy. We'll be lucky if they're the Walls Of Jericho, at this point. Chris Richards may not be fully fit. Tim Ream moves like your father at the end of a family barbecue. Mark McKenzie or Auston Trusty are very unproven at this level. Joe Scally and Alex Freeman have spent more time as fullbacks than centerbacks. Leaving a bigger avenue to this line in the team feels like it's asking for trouble.
But don't worry, there's problems going forward, too! The biggest difference between this team and the '22 team, positively, is that this one has genuine striker that can be counted on to bury chances. Folarin Balogun is so much better than the raft of jokers Berhalter had to roll out in Qatar, it's hard to believe. A #9 going on a heater could solve a lot of problems.
It's just, how is the US going to fashion the chances for him? We've been through Pulisic's issues. Is some combo of Weah, Dest, Robinson as wingbacks going to do the work from wide? Malik Tillman played himself out of the Leverkusen team this season, is he really going to pull the strings in the middle? Even if some of those answers were yes, figuring out who's progressing the ball from the defense to the attack is something of a sudoku. In theory it could be Berhalter, he requires more time and space than Rumspringa to do that sort of thing. Adams can't pass more than three feet, though he can shoot from distance, at least.
But hey, the jerseys are kinda cool!
There's an argument for leaving out all the players who got left out of the 26. Diego Luna plays the same spot as Pulisic, McKennie, Tillman, Aaronson, and Reyna. Except he's actually doing something right now for Salt Lake, which Tillman, Aaronson, and Reyna aren't. Tillman and Reyna have barely played, and Aaronson is just the personification of the zoomies. Tessman and Morris are solid more than spectacular, but they at least play in that spot next to Adams. They've replaced that with...(shrug emoji).
Reyna is kind of the bewildering choice. We know why Berhalter brought him to Qatar. He'd actually seen him do something for the national team. He wasn't all that far removed from doing stuff for Dortmund. But Pochettino never has seen him do that. He's never seen him have an impact in Europe. It's all a theory to Poch, and yet it was good enough. If Reyna does produce something, it'll be the first time he's made an impact on the national team in five years. It'll be the first time he's made an impact on any team in what, two or three years?
So now that's all laid out, it might not be as bad as all that. Having one's organs harvested in the dark isn't as bad as all that, but we're taking what we can get here. The wingbacks could be dangerous. Balogun could catch a heater. McKennie has a habit for fashioning goals for himself, especially in teams with a "check engine" light blinking. He's been doing exactly that at Juventus for a few seasons. Freeman could absolutely be a breakout player.
The road could certainly be harder than it is. Paraguay and Australia are beatable, but not easily so. It's not hard to envision the home advantage carrying them to one win, but seeing the other be just a woeful 0-0, making us all sorry we were born, much less watching that dreck. Four points would almost certainly be enough to go through, but probably not to win the group. Which means needing to get something against Turkey, likely a win, and that team had a lot of dudes. And a lot of dudes in the area of the field that Pochettino has seemingly left light, deep in midfield.
They also can't suffer any Tyler Adams injuries or yellow cards, two things he hoards like a doomer. If he misses a game, then what? Best not to think about it. Poch hasn't!
Concluding what's a successful tournament comes down to personal taste. Most would say reaching the quarters. To do that, the US would probably have to beat Belgium, whom they just got tonked by in a friendly. That's if they win the group. If they finish second, it could be Egypt or Iran, either of whom might be an easier draw than they'd get from winning the group on the field. But off the field, especially the latter...good lord. After that, it could be Canada or Switzerland. Which is slightly better than Belgium, but also presents the possibility of Jesse Marsch peacocking more than anyone ever has in history, and I'll die on the spot.
Cinch it up and hunker down.
Paraguay
Should You Care? Yeah, because they have a chance to be an upstart in this whole thing. They won't do it by being terribly exciting. Or even a little exciting. Or like, infinitesimally exciting. This is an outfit meant to plug, stop, interfere, detour, jam, stick, trap, congest, constipate, and fortify their way through 90 minutes. Their 18 qualifiers had all of 24 total goals in them. But in a tournament that will mostly be played on the surface of the sun, where players are going to be begging for the sweet release of death after the opening 25 minutes of each half, making things difficult as a plan is a pretty good one. Few teams are going to have the energy or craft to consistently weave and connect pretty patterns. It's how Morocco got to a semifinal four years ago, after all. And that was in a tournament when everyone was fit and firing instead of exhausted and uber-sweaty at the conclusion of their club seasons.
Do They Care? A touch, but this is another team returning to the tournament after a long absence. They've missed the last three World Cups, so the expanded field was a welcoming bosom for them. They may fancy their chances in this group, but there will be a happy-t0-be-here factor.
Any Dudes? Miguel Almiron used to be one for Atlanta, was one for a brief, flashing moment for Newcastle, but is now standing around in Atlanta again while they rot from the head. Antonio Sanabria put up a pretty decent season in Serie A four years ago, but has been looking for the bathroom ever since. Julio Enciso looked like he might be another unearthed gem for Brighton a couple seasons ago, but never got there. When Brighton move you along for nothing, that's a real big red mark. He seems to have recovered a bit for Strasbourg. Andres Cubas is the midfield anchor for Vancouver, maybe the best team in MLS this season.
How'd They Get Here? By boring their way through South American qualifying. After a rocky start that saw them draw with Peru and lose to Venezuela, they only lost three of their last 16. One was in Argentina, one was in Brazil, and the other at home to Colombia. They beat both Argentina and Brazil at home. They also never scored more than two goals in a match, though they also only conceded more than one goal in a match twice. And one of those was away to Bolivia, where matches are played halfway to the moon (La Paz elevation: 12,000 feet). Excitement? Adventure? A jedi, or a Paraguayan, craves not these things.
Can They Get Out Of Here? Sure can. In both the US and Australia, they'll see teams that lack some offensive dash, and can force out a draw or 1-0 wins like a hard shit. Turkey do come with some really spicy playmakers, so that could be a challenge, but they may not need the points against them to get through. Beating Australia seems a must.
Prediction: Going through in third? The opener against the US feels like the most nailed on 0-0 in history. 2-0 loss to Turkey seems just about right, and then squeaking by Australia 1-0 and letting the goal-difference with other third-place teams do the work.
Turkiye
Should You Care? If you like spice! That's not a food joke, asshole!
The middle of Turkiye's team is a very tasty outfit, as they play dueling 10s in Arda Güler (Madrid) and Kenan Yildiz (Juventus), in front of Hakan Çalhanoğlu (Inter), still one of the best passers in the game despite getting into his 30s. They have to spread the goals around a bit because they don't have a tried and true striker to finish off everything that comes his way, but that hasn't been much of a problem for them.
Do They Care? With Yildiz and Güler, they have just about as exciting a team as they ever had, so expectations are creeping up there.
Any Dudes? Damn skippy. The three mentioned above make this a very watchable team. Ferdi Kaglioglu started 34 games for Brighton this season. Vicenzo Montella is the manager, and if you have some stereotypical image in your head about how an Italian manager behaves on the sidelines during a match, Montella will fill that out for you to a tee.
How Did They Get Here? Unlucky to be drawn into a qualifying group with Spain, whom they did manage to tie 2-2 in Spain after giving up a touchdown to them at home. They walloped pretty much everyone else to the tune of 15-4 in the other four games. That still landed them in the playoffs, where they made heavier weather of getting past Romania and Kosovo than they needed to. But two 1-0 wins meant the same thing as two 6-0 wins, a trip the States in the summer, and all the bullshit we'll put them through letting them into the country.
Can They Get Out Of Here? Oh can they. Just two years ago they were a whisker away from the semifinals of the Euros, and Güler and Yildiz are more in their prime now. That midfield trio is just the type to dance through the bear traps Paraguay will set, and the blockage that Australia will attempt. They could have their advancement sewn up by the last group game against the US, who will also struggle to hold them out, as Adams can't cover both Yildiz and Güler while also trying to cut off Çalhanoğlu's passing lanes. Win the group, and they'd be a real threat to Belgium in the round of 16.
Prediction: Winning the group on goal-difference over the US, and then a pretty noisy run in the knockouts.
Australia
Should You Care? Probably not. This isn't the Australia of the Kewell-Cahill-Viduka vintage, that nearly took out Italy in 2006. They're functional enough, but probably not much beyond that.
Do They Care? Are Geelong Cats on?
Any Dudes? Actually, kind of a startling lack of dudes, even for the Aussies. Can they sign Kyle Fletcher by the time this starts? They didn't really have that many dudes four years ago, either, but they did manage to escape the group before getting dunked on by Argentina. I guess Jordy Bos? Mostly because "Jordy Bos" is about the most Australian name there could possibly be. He's piled up goal contributions from fullback for Feyenoord. Martin Boyle has had a couple goal-filled season with Hibs in Scotland. But there's a lot of Scotland, Championship, Bundesliga 2, and A-League in this squad.
How'd They Get Here? Getting through the Asian qualifying, which meant taking a point off Japan and then beating who they should the rest of the way. They only lost once in the last round, but four draws amongst five wins, especially when some of those draws to Indonesia and Bahrain, is not blowing anyone's skirt up.
Can They Get Out Of Here? Ooof. Hard to see where they'll have the nous to get through Paraguay's parapets, nor the stoutness to hold Turkey out. Maybe they can catch the US napping, but that also feels like it could be a get right game for the Yanke after they slog through a draw in their opener against Paraguay.
Prediction: Home before the postcards.
Previous Group Previews
Group A - Mexico, South Korea, Czechia, South Africa